SOL poised for a measured breakout: Buying the pivot for a run at $197–$198

Solana (SOL) multi-timeframe technical analysis and 24-hour outlook

Summary view

• Current price: $193.59
• Session range (today, 1h data): High $194.99, Low $189.11; closing back near $193.6 shows dip-buying.
• Market context (daily): After the Oct 10 washout to ~$174–189, SOL formed a multi-day base in the 180–191 zone. This week printed a higher low (Oct 22: $180.15) and is now challenging overhead supply around $193–195 first, then $197–198.

1. Price action and market structure

• Daily structure: Lower highs since Sep 18 peak (~$253), followed by cascading selloffs into Oct 10. Structure began stabilizing Oct 11–22 with higher low at $180.15. A push above $197–198 would confirm the first higher high on the daily since the Oct 13 bounce, shifting bias from neutral/bearish to neutral/bullish.
• 4h/1h structure: Clear sequence of higher lows today: 191.25 -> 190.19 -> 189.26 (capitulative probe) -> 191.31 -> 193.15 -> 193.50. Price reclaimed the prior intraday supply shelf at 192.9–193.3 and is attempting to turn that into support.
• Intraday pattern: Inverse head-and-shoulders on 1h
  • Left shoulder ~189.48 (15:00 UTC)
  • Head ~189.11 (16:00 UTC)
  • Right shoulder ~190.9–191.3 (17–18:00 UTC)
  • Neckline ~193.3–193.5 (now testing from above)
  • Measured move: height ~4.2–4.4 -> target ~197.5–197.9
• Ascending triangle variant: Rising lows into a relatively flat sell wall near 193.4–194.1; clean break and hold favors a push into 196–198.

2. Support and resistance map (spot)

• Immediate supports: 193.3–193.0 (neckline retest), 192.3 (hourly base), 191.3, 190.2, 189.3. Deeper: 187.8, 185.7, 182.0.
• Near resistances: 194.1–195.0 (today’s high 194.99), 197.0–197.5 (prior swing and measured move), 200.6, 205–206, 208–210.
• Volume/acceptance: Heavy two-way flow in 189–195 suggests a nearby point of control; acceptance building ~192–193. A move above 195–196 often runs into a relatively thin pocket up to ~197.5–198.5 before the next major supply (200–206).

3. Moving averages (daily)

• SMA-10 ≈ 188.6 (rising). Price above SMA-10: near-term momentum improving.
• SMA-20 ≈ 200.9 (falling). Price below SMA-20: broader short-term trend still not fully repaired.
• SMA-50 (est.) ≈ 210–215 (falling). Price below SMA-50: medium-term trend still down. Interpretation: Reversion from oversold conditions has begun; to flip the daily to constructive, SOL needs to reclaim and hold above the 197–205 band to drag the 20-SMA flat and eventually up.

4. Momentum indicators

• RSI-14 (daily, est.): mid-to-high 40s, rising from sub-40 lows post-crash. This favors continued mean reversion with room before overbought.
• RSI-14 (1h): around the high-50s to low-60s after the afternoon recovery; not extended, supportive of another leg higher if neckline holds.
• MACD (daily): 12/26 EMAs still below the 26EMA but histogram improving (less negative). A bullish cross is plausible if price pushes into 197–202 and holds.
• MACD (1h): Positive and rising; confirms intraday bullish structure.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR-14 (daily, est.): ~14–16. A typical 24h swing of ±7–9 around spot is reasonable, with tails of ±12.
• Bollinger Bands (daily, 20,2): Mid ~200.9; lower band likely mid-170s; price in the lower half but rising. Bands had expanded on the Oct 10 shock and are now starting to compress—often a prelude to a directional impulse.
• Bollinger Bands (1h): Contraction earlier today, began to open on the reclaim above 193. A sustained close above 194–195 would likely widen bands upward toward 197–198.

6. Ichimoku

• Daily: Price below cloud, Kijun likely ~205–208, Tenkan rising but still below Kijun. Bias: recovery but not a full trend reversal.
• 1h: Price above Tenkan and Kijun, cloud turned supportive around 192–192.6. Bullish intraday alignment, favoring buy-the-dip into the Kijun/Tenkan zone.

7. Fibonacci context

• Swing Sep 18 high (~253.2) to Oct 10 low (~174.1)
  • 38.2% ≈ 204
  • 50% ≈ 213.6
  • 61.8% ≈ 223 These align with visible resistance shelves. Expect supply in 204–214 if SOL breaks 198–200 in coming sessions.
• Post-shock rally Oct 10–13 (~174 -> ~209)
  • 61.8% retrace ≈ 189.7—precisely where buyers defended today. Confluence suggests 189–190 is a pivotal support.

8. Pivots (classic, using today’s H/L/C)

• Pivot P ≈ 192.57
• R1 ≈ 196.02, R2 ≈ 198.45, R3 ≈ 201.91
• S1 ≈ 190.14, S2 ≈ 186.68 Interpretation: Current price above P and probing toward R1; buy-the-dip toward P is attractive. R2 aligns with measured-move/overhead supply confluence.

9. Volume/behavioral read

• Large downside volume on Oct 10/14 purged weak longs. Since then, reactive buying into the 180s and acceptance near 190–195. Today’s intraday dip to 189s was bought quickly, indicating demand just below S1. The lack of follow-through below 189 and fast reclaim to 193.5 argues for a topside test.

10. Wyckoff lens

• Accumulation-type behavior across 180–191: spring/terminal shakeout (Oct 22 to 180.15), sign of strength today (reclaim of 193.3), potential last point of support on a pullback to 192.5–193.0 to launch toward 197–198.

11. Scenario planning (next 24h)

• Base case (≈60%): Hold 192.3–193.3, grind through R1 to 196–197.5, wicks toward 198.0–198.5 (R2). Close in the 195–197 zone.
• Bear case (≈30%): Slip under 192.0 and test 190.1–189.3 (S1/structural shelf). Buyers defend; daily still higher low; session closes 191–193.
• Tail risk (≈10%): Broad risk-off or crypto-wide dip sends SOL through 189 to 187.8–186.7 (S2). Recovery likely but would delay breakout attempt by 1–2 sessions.

12. Confluence summary

• Bullish: 1h uptrend, inverse H&S/ascending triangle, RSI rising, price above 1h cloud and VWAP, pivot P at 192.6 offering a dip-buy zone, strong reaction at 189–190.
• Neutral: Price still trapped between daily SMA-10 and SMA-20; daily cloud overhead.
• Bearish: Dense supply 197–205; daily trend not fully repaired. Net: Mildly bullish for the next 24 hours with a preference to buy dips into 192.3–192.9 or on confirmed breakout >195.1, aiming for 196.0–198.5.

Execution plan

• Bias: Buy (Long).
• Optimal entry: Buy-the-dip near the daily pivot/1h Kijun zone around $192.6 (±$0.3). Alternate: momentum add on a clean break and hold above $195.1.
• Profit objective (24h): First scale at R1 $196.0; main target into measured move/R2 $197.8 (front-run 198.45 and the 197–198 supply).
• Risk (context only): Logical invalidation if intraday closes back below $189.3 (loss of structure/neckline failure). That would imply a revisit of 187.8–186.7.

24-hour price prediction

• Expected range: $190.1 to $198.5, with intraday probes possible to $199 if momentum accelerates.
• Most likely close: $195–197.

Conclusion

• The balance of evidence favors a controlled topside push over the next 24 hours. A pullback into the $192.6 pivot area is attractive for entries, aiming for a move toward $197–198 where multiple resistance metrics converge. Manage risk against the 189–190 shelf.