SOL coils under $200: buy the dip for a 203.9 target within 24 hours

Summary view and 24h path expectation

• Bias: Moderately bullish for the next 24 hours with a buy-the-dip setup. Expect a shallow pullback into 196–197 to reset intraday momentum, followed by an attempt to reclaim and break 200. Primary upside objective 202.5–204 on a successful push; failure to hold 194–195 risks a slide back to 191–192.
• Expected range next 24h: 194.0 – 204.0, with an upside skew if 199.3–200 is converted to support on rising volume.

Market structure (HTF daily)

• Trend: After a September high near 253 (9/18), SOL rolled into a corrective downtrend to 188–192 (9/25–10/11 cluster lows). A sharp washout on 10/10 to ~174–178 created the current swing low. Since 10/22 (180.15 low), price has built a series of higher lows and is now challenging the 200 handle again.
• Regime: Medium-term still below the likely daily 50-SMA (~210–215 by estimation), but short-term momentum has flipped positive with closes above the 10-SMA and now re-testing the 20-SMA area.

Key levels and confluence

• Supports: 194–195 (prior day’s close and intraday shelf), 191.9–192.1 (fib and pivot confluence), 189.7, 187.8, 185.7, 180.1 (swing low).
• Resistances: 199.3–200.0 (61.8% fib of 211.1→180.15; psych round), 202.5–203.5 (recent supply and pivot R2 projection), 205–206 (prior range cap), 209.5–211 (late-10/13–10/14 highs), 213.
• Fib retracement (swing 211.1 → 180.15): 38.2% ≈ 191.97 (tested/held), 50% ≈ 195.63 (now near), 61.8% ≈ 199.30 (current ceiling/trigger).

Moving averages (Daily)

• SMA5 ≈ 188.96; SMA10 ≈ 187.67; SMA20 ≈ 197.45 (computed from last 20 closes). Price 197.71 is above SMA5/SMA10 and marginally above the SMA20 pivot. Short-term ribbon is turning up; 10-day is rising toward the 20-day from below, a constructive early-stage bullish crossover setup.
• SMA50 (est.) ≈ 210–215 and downward sloping; price remains below it, so broader trend hasn’t fully reversed yet. This favors measured upside targets and taking profits into resistance.

Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) ≈ 59 (computed), showing bullish momentum without overbought conditions—room to extend higher before hitting headwinds.
• MACD (qualitative): Histogram likely positive or approaching zero-line cross given the recovery from 10/22; signal alignment favors upside continuation if 199–200 breaks on volume.
• Stochastics (qualitative): Likely in upper band after today’s push; risk of minor pullback/flag before continuation—consistent with a buy-dip plan.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) ≈ 12.7 (about 6.4% of price). Anticipated next-day swing magnitude supports a 194–204 operating range with room for a stretch to ~206 on momentum breakout.
• Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ, approx): Mid ≈ 197.45; bands estimated near 165–229 given recent dispersion. Price is near the middle band, not stretched—supportive for a trend attempt rather than mean-reversion fade.

Volume and participation

• Daily: Post-10/10 capitulation volume has normalized but remains attentive. 10/25 volume was lighter (3.17B), but today’s intraday sum (~3.99B into late session) indicates renewed participation on the push toward 200.
• Intraday (hourly): Demand spikes at 11:00–14:00 UTC drove a leg to ~199.6; subsequent hours showed orderly consolidation with lower volume—typical bull flag behavior rather than distribution. Watch for a volume expansion on any 199.3–200 break.

Intraday structure (10/26, hourly)

• Uptrend from ~193 early session to 199.6 high, followed by a controlled pullback to ~197.7 into the last recorded hour. This forms a rising channel with a flagging top under round-number resistance.
• VWAP (intraday, est.) near 198.8–199.0. Price at 197.7 traded slightly below VWAP late; a reclaim of VWAP + hold typically precedes a second push.

Pivot maps

• Prior daily pivots (10/25): P ≈ 193.58, R1 ≈ 195.55, R2 ≈ 197.06, R3 ≈ 199.03. Today extended beyond R3 intraday (199.61)—a bullish tell.
• Provisional pivots using 10/26 intraday H/L/C (199.61/192.19/197.71): P ≈ 196.50; R1 ≈ 200.82; R2 ≈ 203.93; S1 ≈ 193.39; S2 ≈ 189.08. These line up tightly with our tactical entry and take-profit zones.

Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price above Tenkan (9-period) and near/below Kijun (26-period), with the cloud likely overhead in low-200s. This suggests a transition phase: initial bullishness but needing a Kijun recapture (~203–206) to unlock a fuller trend continuation toward 209–213.

Pattern readouts

• Bull flag/ascending channel under 200 with higher lows since 10/22; a breakout through 199.3–200 on rising volume would target 202.5–204 first, then 205–206.
• Elliott wave sketch (intraday from 10/22): Wave-3 advance likely matured into today’s high; expect a Wave-4 shallow pullback (196–197) before a final Wave-5 probe toward 202–204.

Mean-reversion and risk markers

• Rejection scenario: Failure to reclaim VWAP/200 and a loss of 195 could unwind to 192 (S1/S2 cluster) within the ATR envelope. Below 191.9, momentum would flip back to neutral-bearish for the short term.
• Confirmation triggers: 199.3 flip to support and a strong 200+ close on hourly bars with volume expansion would increase odds of 202.5–204 print within the session.

Probability-weighted scenarios (24h)

• Bull base case (≈60%): Pullback into 196–197, reclaim VWAP, break 199.3–200, tag 202.5–204; consolidate 200–203 into the close.
• Neutral chop (≈25%): Range 195–200; multiple failed attempts through 200 but supports hold; net flat to modestly positive day.
• Bear risk (≈15%): Lose 195 quickly, accelerate to 192; bounce stalls sub-198; sessions closes weak 191–195.

Trade plan rationale

• Rationale for Buy: Short-term momentum has turned up (RSI ~59, 10>SMA5 and progressing toward SMA20), price reclaimed the 20-SMA pivot, and intraday structure suggests a controlled flag under a major fib/psych level. Confluence of pivot R1/R2 at 200.8/203.9 offers clear targets within ATR. Risk is well-defined below 194–195.
• Entry selection: Optimal to buy a dip rather than chase the round-number breakout, given late-session fade below VWAP. A limit near 196.9 sits in the 196–197 retrace pocket (flag support, near daily mid-band) with better R:R.
• Exit/TP: First major supply is 202.5–204 (pivot R2 cluster and prior supply). Taking profit at 203.9 harvests the move while front-running overhead liquidity at 204–205.
• Risk guide (informational): A logical invalidation is below 193.3–194.0 (prior supports and S1 cluster). Not part of the schema, but prudent for execution.

Bottom line

• The balance of evidence favors a Buy-the-dip approach for a 24h push into the low 200s, provided 194–195 holds and 199–200 breaks on volume. Confluence-backed target aligns at ~203.9 within ATR constraints.