SOL: Short the Rip — Descending Channel, 50% Fib Pivot, and Rejections at 189–190

Note: This is a market-education analysis, not financial advice. Always size positions prudently and use risk controls.

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Bearish-to-range. Expect SOL to trade within 184.5–189.5 with risk of a breakdown toward 182 if 184–185 gives way. Any pops into 189–191 likely meet supply.
• Trade idea: Sell the rip (short) into 189–190 resistance; target a fade back into 183–185.

1. Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Daily trend: Lower highs since 2025-10-26 (200.6) → 10-27 (205.0) → 10-28 (203.8) → 10-29 (201.7) → 10-30 (198.0) → 10-31 intraday (189.8). Price is below declining short-term averages; structure is a descending channel/controlled pullback following the bounce off 10-10 crash.
• 4H/1H structure: Last 24h shows repeated rejections near 189–190 (hourly highs ~189.8) and demand around 184.9–185.4. “Sell-the-rally” behavior: a push to ~189.8 (15:00–16:00 UTC window) was sold back to ~185.0 the next hour. Lower highs within the day confirm intraday supply overhead.
• Key levels from market structure:
  • Resistance: 189.1–189.8 (intraday supply), 191–194 (multi-day supply cluster: 10-24 to 10-29 closes), 198–200 (round/structural; 10-27 swing zone).
  • Support: 184.6 (10-30 close near 61.8% retrace), 182.0–182.5 (swing lows 10-17 area), 179.2 (10-30 intraday low), 176.5 (S1 by classic pivots).

2. Moving averages (trend filters)

• 20-day SMA (approx): Using 20 closes through 10-29, ~191.7; including 10-30, ~191.5. Current 186.8 is below the 20SMA → short-term bearish slope/mean.
• 50-day SMA (directional context): Price spent much of Sep–early Oct above 210 and mid-Oct in 190–205; 50SMA is likely above spot (est. low-200s) and gently rolling down → medium-term resistance overhead.
• 200-day SMA (context): With Aug–Sep print 160–250 and Oct mostly 190–230, the 200SMA likely sits near upper 190s–low 200s. Price below it suggests broader momentum still healing from the October shock. Implication: All key MAs above price → rallies likely fade until a base forms.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) estimate ≈ 54 (computed from last 14 closes). This is neutral-to-slightly positive, but note price is below the 20SMA. Neutral RSI with price under MAs often precedes range or further grind lower unless bulls reclaim the mean.
• 1H RSI: oscillating around mid-50s with failure to sustain >60 during 189–190 tests → intraday momentum lacks punch.
• MACD (12,26,9): Likely below zero on daily after the late-October downswing; histogram modestly improving today on a bounce from 184 → 186–189, but still sub-zero. Typically favors selling pops until a bullish cross above zero or MA reclaim.
• Stochastics (14,3,3): Likely emerged from oversold on the 10-30 hammer and is curling, but stalling beneath resistance; a classic “bear market rally” momentum profile. Implication: Mixed/neutral daily momentum, weak intraday thrusts; favors fade setups at resistance.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Mid-band ≈ 191.5; price below mid, above lower band. Bandwidth is moderate after the 10-10 shock; mean reversion target remains the mid-band (~191.5), but downtrend pressure argues it may not be reached before another dip.
• Keltner Channel (EMA20 ± ATR): With ATR elevated from 10-10 and 10-30 swings, price is near the lower Keltner half; rallies into EMA20 zone tend to meet supply.
• ATR(14) context: Recent daily true ranges 12–20 with outliers (10-10, 10-12). Expect next 24h realized range closer to 5–10 given the recent compression intraday, but a break of 184 could expand range toward ~181–182. Implication: Volatility is compressing intraday; watch for expansion on a support break.

5. Fib retracements (reaction map)

• Using 10-10 low ~174.1 to 10-26 high ~200.6:
  • 38.2%: ~190.5
  • 50%: ~187.3
  • 61.8%: ~184.2 Current price 186.8 sits around the 50% pivot; 10-30 low probed near the 61.8%. This zone (184–187) is a classic decision area. Failure to reclaim >190.5 suggests a second leg down is likely before any sustained rally.

6. Classical pivots (using 10-30 H/L/C ≈ 198.04/179.22/184.62)

• Pivot P ≈ 187.30; R1 ≈ 195.37; S1 ≈ 176.55; R2 ≈ 206.11; S2 ≈ 168.48.
• Current 186.8 is slightly below P → intraday bearish bias. Immediate resistance lies far above at R1, reinforcing the idea to fade moves before 191–195.

7. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Spot is below likely Tenkan/Kijun and below the cloud, with the cloud projected overhead ~191–200. This indicates overhead resistance into any bounce; bearish until Kijun reclaimed.

8. Parabolic SAR / DMI-ADX (qualitative)

• SAR likely above price (given lower highs) → bearish.
• DMI: -DI above +DI post-10-30 swing with ADX picking up on the selloff; trend strength modest, not extreme.

9. Volume and tape

• 10-10 breakdown was on very high volume; subsequent bounce toward 200 had fading participation. Recent days show moderate volume on rallies and heavier on sell days → supply dominant.
• Today’s intraday tape: attempts to lift above 189 were met with quick offers; VWAP gravitating near 186–187, with sellers leaning above VWAP.

10. Candlestick read

• 10-30 daily: Long lower wick (hammer-like) off 179–180 that invited a relief bounce.
• 10-31 so far: Inside/indecision day under resistance; failure to close above ~188.5–189 would set up a continuation lower early weekend.

11. Pattern synthesis

• Descending channel since 10-26 with lower highs and marginally lower lows.
• Potential double-bottom watch near 184.6 (10-16 close and 10-30 close). A decisive hourly close below 184.5 would negate this and open 182 → 179.
• Near-term read: “Short the rip” inside a controlled downtrend until 190.5–191 is reclaimed on a closing basis.

12. Scenario probabilities (next 24h)

• Bearish drift within channel (test 184–185, potential stab 182–183): ~55%.
• Range chop 185–189.5 without break: ~30%.
• Upside squeeze above 190–191 targeting 193.5–195: ~15% (invalidate short bias on a strong hourly close >191 with rising volume).

13. Risk management map (for reference)

• Preferred entry: 189.4–190.0 (sell limit) where supply has repeatedly capped price and aligns with Fib 38.2%/intraday highs.
• Protective area: Above 191.5–192.0 (over the lower high shelf and near BB mid), as a close above here suggests mean reversion toward 193–195 is underway.
• Profit zone: 183–185 first target; extension to 181.5–182.5 only if 184 breaks cleanly with momentum.

Why “Sell” now?

• Price below declining 20SMA; 50/200 SMAs likely overhead; MACD below zero; intraday rejections at 189–190; classical pivot P at ~187.3 with price beneath; structure of lower highs intact.
• The only bullish counter is the 10-30 hammer and daily RSI ~54, but that bounce is stalling under resistance. Until 190.5–191 is reclaimed, risk/reward favors fading strength.

24h path prediction

• Baseline: Early probe into 189–190, rejection, and fade toward 185, with a late-session risk of a liquidity sweep to 183–184. If 184.5 fails on an hourly close, momentum can extend to ~182.5. Conversely, a sustained reclaim >190.5 with volume could squeeze to 193–194, but probability is lower given trend filters.

Trade plan snapshot

• Decision: Sell (Short).
• Optimal open: 189.6 (sell limit in front of supply and below 190.5 invalidation band).
• Take-profit: 183.0–185.0 zone; choose 183.0 for better RR, recognizing increased chance of partial fills on a breakdown.
• Optional risk control (not requested but prudent): Stop 191.6–192.0.

Closing thought

• Weekend liquidity can accentuate moves; respect levels. If 191 prints on strong breadth, step aside—trend may seek the 193–195 magnet before reassessing.