Sell the Bounce: Targeting SOL’s Next Leg to Mid‑140s After a 150 Breakdown

Executive summary

• Direction: Strong short-term downtrend with capitulation-like impulses and only minor relief bounces so far. Structure favors selling into strength over the next 24 hours.
• Thesis (24h): After sweeping the 150 round number and printing a fresh multi‑month low at ~147.78, odds favor a reflex rally toward 154–157 (Fibo 38.2–50% of today’s downswing) followed by continuation lower toward 145–143 if sellers defend that rebound zone.
• Plan: Use a patient fade-the-bounce setup. Optimal short entry aligns with multiple resistances around 154.9–156.5. First target 143 area where Fibonacci extensions/pivots cluster.

1. Market structure and trend (multi-timeframe)

• Daily structure: The sequence since late October shows lower highs and lower lows. Nov 3 closed at 166.09 after a wide-range selloff (H 188.74 / L 163.55), and Nov 4 extended the decline to a new low at 147.78. This confirms a persistent bearish trend with volatility expansion.
• Intraday (hourly): Price rolled from 166–168 overnight, broke 160/156 intraday supports, and flushed to 152→149 with a session low of 147.78. The hourly trend is decisively bearish: LH/LL progression, rallies sold quickly, and closes near the lows.
• Key levels mapped from recent highs/lows: • Resistance band: 154.5–156.5 (hourly supply flip + Fibo retracement) and 159.0–162.0 (61.8% retrace + prior micro-base). • Supports: 150 (psychological, now broken), 147.5–147.8 (intraday S2 pivot confluence), then 145.0–143.0 (Fibo extensions and measured move), with 140 and 138 as stretch risks.

2. Candlestick and pattern read

• Nov 3 daily: Large bearish body with shallow lower wick → heavy sell pressure.
• Nov 4 intraday: Multiple wide red candles (notably 05:00 and 20:00 UTC hours) with only modest reactionary wicks, characteristic of trend days. The 21:00 hour took out 150 and swept stops to 147.8 before modestly reclaiming ~149 → typical liquidity sweep followed by weak bounce, not a firm reversal.
• Emerging pattern: Descending channel/impulse leg with minor bear flags that resolve lower. No confirmed reversal pattern (no hammer/engulfing on the daily, no base > 3–5 hours on the intraday).

3. Moving averages (trend filters)

• Daily SMA/EMA: Price is well below any reasonable 20D EMA/SMA and 50D SMA (given October trade clustered 185–205, the 20/50-day MAs sit well above current 149), confirming downside momentum and room for only mean-reverting bounces.
• Hourly EMA ribbon: 8/20/50 EMAs fanned bearishly, with price trading below the 20 and 50 most of the day. Rallies into the 20/50 EMA bands (~154–157 on a rebound) are high-probability fade zones.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI (daily): After back-to-back hard down days (166 → 149), daily RSI is likely sub-30 (oversold). Oversold in downtrends favors sharp but sellable bounces; it is not a buy signal by itself.
• RSI (hourly): Multiple sub-30 prints with shallow recoveries → momentum remains negative; expect RSI to reset toward 40–50 on a bounce before rolling again.
• Stochastic: Deeply oversold intraday with room to cycle higher in the next sessions, aligning with a tactical rebound into resistance before further downside.

5. MACD

• Daily MACD: Bearish and widening histogram; fast line below signal, indicating strengthening downside impulse. No bullish cross evident.
• Hourly MACD: Negative with occasional histogram contraction during bounces; until a cross above zero (unlikely immediately), bear trend stays dominant.

6. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (daily): Price is riding the lower band; volatility has expanded. Typical behavior: snapbacks toward the 20D mid-band are possible but currently far away; near-term, expect mean-reversion to the lower/median of intraday bands (154–157) before potential continuation.
• Keltner Channels: Price hugging/breaching lower KC confirms trend-with-volatility. First resistance is often the middle KC on bounce attempts (again ~mid-150s intraday).
• ATR: Daily ATR has risen sharply after Oct–Nov breakdowns. Elevated ATR supports the view of 6–12 dollar intraday swings; both bounce and continuation targets are reachable in 24h.

7. Volume, VWAP, OBV, and money flow

• Volume: Nov 3–4 show heightened sell volume on down candles (e.g., 05:00, 20:00 UTC bursts), supporting trend continuation.
• OBV: Trending down; no divergence evident.
• CMF/MFI: Likely negative with sustained distribution; brief positive blips during bounces quickly fade.
• VWAPs: • Today’s session VWAP (qualitatively) sits well above current price (given open ~166, heavy selling; precise line likely mid- to high-150s early, sliding during the day). Price below VWAP = sellers control intraday. Rejections at/near VWAP are typical short entries. • Anchored VWAP from Nov 3 open (~187.8) would sit far above 160, underscoring the broader distribution overhead.

8. Ichimoku

• Hourly: Price below cloud; Tenkan < Kijun; Span A < Span B; cloud ahead is thick and descending. Any bounce into/under the cloud (~155–160) is likely rejected initially.
• Daily: Price below Tenkan/Kijun and likely below cloud or approaching its bottom. Bearish momentum until at least a Tenkan crossover and base reclaim, which are not present.

9. ADX/DMI

• DMI: +DI well below −DI; −DI dominant.
• ADX: Rising, signaling a strengthening trend rather than a choppy range. Trend following shorts favored on rallies.

10. Donchian and Parabolic SAR

• Donchian (20): New 20-session lows being probed; breakouts lower attract trend followers.
• Parabolic SAR: Likely above price on all intraday frames → bearish bias until a series of higher lows forces a flip.

11. Fibonacci mapping (confluence focus)

• Micro swing (Nov 4): From 166.30 (00:00 close) to 147.78 (intraday low): • 38.2% = ~154.85; 50% = ~157.04; 61.8% = ~159.23. • This defines a prime short-sell zone cluster 154.8–159.2, with the lower edge favored for conservative fills.
• Prior swing (Oct 26 high 200.6 → Nov 3 low 163.55): 38.2% ~177.7, 50% ~182.1, 61.8% ~186.2 (far overhead, contextualizes the broader bear move).
• Extension targets from micro swing: If the bounce peaks near ~155–157 and rolls, 1.0x measured move from 154 to 147 implies further leg ~7 → target ~147→140. A realistic near-term extension zone: 145–143.

12. Pivot points (classic, based on Nov 3 H/L/C = 188.74 / 163.55 / 166.09)

• Pivot P ≈ (188.74 + 163.55 + 166.09)/3 ≈ 172.79.
• S1 ≈ 156.84; S2 ≈ 147.59; R1 ≈ 182.79.
• Price traded through S1 and tagged S2 (147.6–147.8) today; often, after S2 hits, a reflex toward S1 (156–157) occurs before the next decision. If S1 caps price, S3 risk opens later; for the next 24h, continued tests of S2 and a push toward 145–143 are plausible.

13. Measured moves and symmetry

• The 166→154 break (~$12) mirrored by a 154→142 projection places a symmetric target near 142. Today’s low at ~147.8 leaves room for one more push lower if sellers defend 154–157 on the bounce.

14. Elliott wave (heuristic)

• From late Oct swing (~200) price appears in a 5‑wave downside structure. Today’s drop looks like subwave iii of 3 or early 5 on shorter timeframes; in either case, a brief iv-type rebound into 154–157 followed by a final v extension to 145–143 fits the pattern.

15. Risk context and scenarios (24h)

• Base case (55%): Bounce toward 154–156, rejection, then continuation toward 145–143.
• Alternate 1 (25%): Failure to bounce above 152; grind-lower continuation that wicks 146–145 sooner, modest late rebound to ~150.
• Alternate 2 (20%): Stronger squeeze to 159–161 (61.8% retrace/EMA cluster) before rolling. This path still favors the short, but requires wider risk allowance.

16. Trade plan synthesis

• Edge comes from confluence at 154.8–156.5 (38.2% Fibo, hourly EMA band, intraday VWAP/previous supply, S1 pivot magnet). Shorting into that zone offers favorable R:R to 145–143 with a logical invalidation above 159.5–160.5 (61.8% Fibo/EMA resistance and structural LH break).
• Optional risk parameters (not required but prudent): Stop-loss ~159.8; Target ~143.0. R:R ≈ (154.9→159.8 risk 4.9) : (154.9→143 reward 11.9) ≈ 1:2.4.

Conclusion and 24h outlook

• Trend, momentum, volume, and volatility all support selling bounces. The most probable path is a relief rally into mid‑150s that fails, extending the downswing into mid‑140s. Hence, a tactical short is favored.