Solana’s Post-Washout Rebound: Tactical Long Into 170 Resistance

Summary view

• Bias next 24h: Tactical bullish (mean-reversion bounce) within a broader daily downtrend. Expect a pullback bid around 159–161 and a push toward 167–170 before heavy supply.
• Rationale: Post-washout reversal structure (long lower wick from 147.98 to close 162.19), intraday higher lows/higher highs, oversold oscillators turning up, price reclaiming short-term moving averages and intraday VWAP, yet still well below mid/long MAs and the daily Ichimoku cloud. Favor a fade-resistant bounce but cap targets below nearby resistance bands.

1. Market structure and price action

• Higher timeframe (daily): Since the 253.21 Sept 18 peak, structure is lower highs/lower lows: 253 → 174 (Oct 10 capitulation) → 208 (Oct 13 LH) → 166 (Nov 3 new low close) → 147.98 (Nov 5 intraday sweep). This confirms a primary downtrend, but the new low came with a strong intraday rebound, a common short-term reversal signature.
• Current day (intraday): Today printed a wide-range bullish day: low 147.98, high 163.54, last 162.19. The session put in sequential higher lows from ~12:00–18:00 UTC and held gains into the close cluster (161.9–163.6), indicating dip demand.
• Candlestick cues: The daily session resembles a hammer/long lower shadow (washout + close near upper half), often leading to 1–2 sessions of mean-reversion. On the hourly, multiple bullish bodies with shallow upper wicks into 16:00–18:00 show steady buying rather than short-cover alone.

2. Support and resistance mapping

• Immediate supports: 161.1–162.3 (hourly congestion and last hour’s close), 158.8–159.5 (intraday pullback shelf), 156.8 (classic pivot S1 from prior day calc), 150.0–148.0 (capitulation basin; today’s low 147.98).
• Immediate resistances: 163.6 (today’s intraday high cluster), 165.0–166.5 (Nov 3 close 166.09; broken pivot zone), 168.5–170.0 (round-number, recent supply shelf), 172.2 (Fibo 23.6% from 253.21→147.98), 188.9 (Fibo 38.2%). For the next 24h, the 165–170 belt is the key supply wall.

3. Fibonacci framework (swing high 253.21 to swing low 147.98)

• 23.6%: ~172.21
• 38.2%: ~188.98
• 50%: ~200.60
• 61.8%: ~213.02 Interpretation: Current 162 is below the first retracement (172). Typical bear-market bounces first test 23.6%–38.2% zones. For 24h scope, 168–170 is a realistic magnet, with 172 a stretch if momentum accelerates.

4. Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily: Price is materially below the 20/50-day MAs (given weeks spent in 190–230 prior to the recent dump). Slope is down, confirming the primary bearish regime. Mean-reversion rallies frequently stall at declining 20DMA (likely mid/high 180s), well above today’s price.
• 4h/1h: Price reclaimed short MAs intraday and built a rising micro-channel. That favors a continuation push toward 165–170 before meeting declining higher-timeframe MAs/supply.

5. Oscillators

• RSI (daily, est.): Fell to oversold on Nov 3–5 and is curling up. A cross out of oversold often produces a 1–3 day relief bounce.
• RSI (hourly): Stabilized around midline (50–60) during the afternoon advance, consistent with a trend day up on the lower timeframe.
• Stochastics: Turned up from deep oversold on lower TFs; daily Stoch still low but rising—bullish for a short-term pop.
• MACD: Hourly MACD crossed up and is expanding; daily MACD is still negative but may begin flattening if price holds above 158–160 for 1–2 sessions.

6. Volatility and bands

• ATR (daily, est.): Elevated after the cascade; multi-day ranges of 15–25 are now common. A 24h move of ~8–15 is feasible, supporting a 159–170 working range.
• Bollinger Bands (daily): Price pressed/lipped the lower band (capitulation). Mean-reversion often targets the mid-band on intraday charts and the lower-to-mid band on daily; 167–170 lines up with this idea near term.

7. Ichimoku

• Daily: Price < cloud; Tenkan < Kijun; Chikou under price—bearish regime. Kijun and cloud base likely sit far above 170, reinforcing that bounces meet resistance on approach to 170–180 and stronger at ~190–200. Near-term, Tenkan reversion typically targets a controlled bounce; 165–170 fits.
• 1h/4h: Price has reclaimed Tenkan and is working toward Kijun; early cloud base re-tests possible on additional strength, but the bigger cloud overhead will cap rallies.

8. Volume and flow

• Distribution vs. capitulation: The largest volumes in this dataset coincide with down legs (Oct 10, mid-Oct pressure, Nov 3). Today’s bounce comes after a fresh liquidity sweep to 147.98, suggesting short-cover + bargain dip buying. Heavy overhead supply remains between 166–190 from prior acceptance, so rallies should slow there.
• Today’s intraday progression shows sustained prints and little giveback into the close, hinting at real buyers participating, not just a one-candle squeeze.

9. Pivot levels (derived from Nov 3 H/L/C 188.74/163.55/166.09)

• Pivot P ≈ 172.79; R1 ≈ 182.04; S1 ≈ 156.84; R2 ≈ 197.99; S2 ≈ 147.60 Interpretation: Today’s action oscillated between S1–P with rejection below S1 early and later recovery toward mid-range. Within 24h, a rotation toward 165–170 (below P) is consistent; tagging P (~172.8) would require additional momentum.

10. Pattern read

• Descending channel: The recent down leg respects a falling channel; today tagged/pierced the lower boundary (~148–152 area) and bounced—typical of a channel mean-reversion toward midline (in the 165–170 neighborhood on the next 24h horizon).
• Liquidity sweep: Nov 5 undercut prior lows, flushed stops to 147.98, and reclaimed. Such sweeps frequently precede 1–2 sessions of relief.

11. Heikin-Ashi/price smoothing (conceptual)

• HA candles on 1h would show diminishing lower wicks and expanding bodies through mid-session, pointing to momentum stabilization.

12. VWAP and profile (tactical)

• Intraday action indicates price reclaimed and held above session VWAP through the afternoon push, a short-term bullish tell. Expect buyers to defend near VWAP on dips; that aligns with 159–161 as a preferred pullback entry pocket.

13. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• A: Sharp drop into 147.98. B: Ongoing corrective bounce likely targeting 167–170. C: Risk of another leg down later this week if sellers reassert below 172–175. For the next 24h, wave B up has the edge.

14. Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (55%): Pullback toward 159–161 gets bought; push to 167–170; stalls near 170.
• Bear case (30%): Early fade below 159 leads to a retest of 156.8; if momentum sours, 153–155 prints; only a loss of 152 opens 150/148 again.
• Bull extension (15%): Strong continuation sends price through 170, probing 171.5–172.5 (near the 23.6% Fib). Odds lower without a catalyst.

15. Risk management and execution plan

• Tactic: Buy-the-dip into 159–161 with a limit; first target 167–170 where supply is thick. Keep stops beneath 157–157.5 to avoid getting trapped if the bounce fails. R:R near 1:2 from a 160.8 entry targeting ~169.6 with a ~3.3 stop is acceptable for a 24h tactical trade.
• What invalidates: A decisive hourly close below 157 (back inside the breakdown pocket) would weaken the setup and favor revisiting 153–150 quickly.

Conclusion

• The primary trend is down, but the microstructure favors a mean-reversion bounce over the next 24 hours. Play it as a tactical long into well-defined resistance, not a trend reversal. Optimal plan: place a limit buy on a pullback near 160.8 and take profits just ahead of the 170 supply wall (around 169.6).