Solana setup: Sell the rip into 161–162 as trend points to 151 in next 24 hours

Overview and regime context

• Timeframe coverage: Daily candles from mid-Aug to mid-Nov and intraday (hourly) for 2025-11-10 to 2025-11-11. Current price: 156.318.
• Structural shift: After peaking near 253.21 (2025-09-18), SOL put in a series of lower highs and lower lows; a secondary swing high cluster near 234.86–236.79 (2025-10-02 to 10-03) failed, followed by a breakdown wave culminating in the sharp Oct 10 dump to 174.07 and the early Nov spill to 146.75 (2025-11-04 low). The bounce to 170.16 on 2025-11-10/11 stalled; price is now pressing fresh local lows in the mid-150s. Trend is dominantly bearish across daily and hourly timeframes.

Market structure and price action

• Daily market structure:
  • Lower highs: 234.86 (10-02), 236.79 (10-03 intraday), 233–229 area (10-06 to 10-09), then 208–211 (10-13/14), 200–205 zone late Oct, and 170–172 (11-10/11 intraday). This staircase lower highs confirms persistent distribution.
  • Lower lows: 192.38 (09-25), 184.62 (10-30), 166.09 (11-03), 146.75 (11-04). Despite a mid-October recovery to 205–206, the early-Nov bearish impulse reset the structure.
  • Key support ladder now below price: 155.38 (11-09 low), 153.79 (11-06 low), 150.44 (11-07 low), 146.75 (11-04 low). Resistance overhead: 160.83–164.10 (pivot-derived; see pivots), 167.13 (daily pivot from 11-10), 170.40 (R1), 171.6 (intraday 11-11 high), 174-176 (R3 zone).
• Hourly structure (last 24 hours):
  • 11-11 01:00–03:00 pushed to 171.6; subsequent hours staircased down: 170→166.7→165.5→164.7→164.0→163.5→163.4→162.9→162.4→160.9→160.7→159.5→159.0→157.9→156.6→156.1→156.32. Sequence of lower highs/lows is intact.
  • A minor reactive low 155.83 (21:00 hour low) preceded a small bounce; currently hovering near those lows, implying sellers still control tape.

Volume and participation

• Daily volume spikes coincide with down legs: 2025-10-10 (16.78B), 11-03 (10.08B) and 11-04 (11.72B) on breakdown; 11-10 (5.42B) followed by today’s ongoing sell. Distribution character: large red-bodied days occur on above-average volume, while bounces happen on lighter volume – classic bear-market rally profile.
• Intraday 11-11 volume clusters: Increased turnover during down-impulses around 15:00–21:00 versus quieter during weak bounces – confirms aggressive sell-the-rip behavior.

Trend and moving averages (qualitative inference from data)

• Daily 20/50 EMA posture likely bearish: price has been below late-Oct value area (~195–205) since the early-Nov break; daily closes in the 150s–160s suggest both 20 EMA and 50 EMA are above spot, acting as dynamic resistance. The 200 EMA (far above, given months of data) is well overhead. Slope of EMAs would be down.
• Hourly 20/50 EMA: price has ridden the underside since the 03:00–05:00 roll; rallies to the 20 EMA have been sold. Expect 20 EMA ~160–161 and 50 EMA ~162–164 region, reinforcing the 160.8–164 supply pocket.

Momentum indicators

• RSI (qualitative):
  • Daily RSI likely mid- to low-40s trending toward 40 after repeated failures near 170–200 areas, with room to push to the high-30s on a further flush toward 150.
  • Hourly RSI has spent extended time sub-40, occasionally tagging oversold during thrusts; the sequence suggests momentum remains bearish with only brief mean-reversion pops.
• MACD:
  • Daily MACD below signal, histogram negative and likely widening after the 11-10/11 failure at 170; no bullish crossover in sight.
  • Hourly MACD negative; any cross-ups have been shallow and quickly rolled over, consistent with trend continuity.
• Stochastic: likely pinned/bouncing around oversold on the hourly but with weak follow-through; often indicative of trend persistence rather than imminent reversal in a strong downtrend.

Volatility and range

• Daily ATR (visual estimate) has expanded since early Nov; typical range 8–15 points recently. Today’s intraday range already traversed ~15 points from 171.6 to 155.8. Within 24 hours, a 5–10 point extension from 156 is plausible, taking price toward 151–150 if the downtrend continues.

Bollinger Bands

• Daily: Price is pressing or below the lower band, with bands widening following the early Nov breakdown – suggests trend acceleration rather than a simple mean-reversion regime.
• Hourly: Riding the lower band for multiple hours. A small BB squeeze-release pattern isn’t present; instead, we see expansion with walks along the lower band – rallies to the mid-band (~20 SMA) near 160–162 are likely to be sold.

Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Hourly and daily price below cloud; Tenkan and Kijun overhead with bearish stack. A retest of Kijun/tenkan confluence near 161–163 would typically be a high-probability fade area in a bearish regime. Span A/B above price – no support from the cloud below.

Fibonacci analysis

• Major swing: 10-02/03 top ~234.86–236.79 to 11-04 low 146.75.
  • 38.2% ≈ 182; 50% ≈ 190.8; 61.8% ≈ 199.1. September/October action shows repeated rejection in these retracement zones, validating the larger bearish structure.
• Recent intraday swing: 11-11 high 171.60 to 11-11 low 155.83.
  • 38.2% ≈ 161.55; 50% ≈ 163.72; 61.8% ≈ 165.89. This places a prime short-sell zone at 161.5–165.9. Given confluence with EMAs, pivot S/R, and VWAP (see below), optimal entry is in the low 161s.

Classical pivots (derived from 2025-11-10 daily H/L/C)

• H=170.155, L=163.856, C=167.367
• P = 167.126; S1 = 164.097; R1 = 170.396; S2 = 160.827; R2 = 173.425; S3 = 157.798; R3 = 176.695.
• Price is below S3 (157.80) at 156.32: this is a strongly bearish posture. The S2 level (160.83) and S1 (164.10) convert to resistance. A “sell the retest of S2” is textbook in this setup.

VWAP and mean reversion (intraday)

• Session anchored VWAP (qualitative) should sit above current spot, likely in the mid- to high-160s given earlier highs. However, on the downswing from 171.6, a shorter-horizon/rolling VWAP often drifts into 160–163. Expect rejections on VWAP/tag attempts in that zone.

Regression channel (hourly)

• Linear regression over the last 24 hours slopes downward; median line projects near 160–162. Price is currently at/below lower channel; mean reversion towards the median is possible before the next leg lower, offering a tactical short entry.

Candlestick/price patterns

• No convincing bullish reversal on hourly/daily (no hammer with confirmation, no bullish engulfing). Intraday prints near 20:00–21:00 show small-bodied candles around 156 with lower shadows – more pause than reversal. The dominant pattern reads as a bearish impulsive leg with shallow bounces.

Order flow and liquidity zones

• Obvious resting liquidity:
  • Below: 155.38 (11-09 low), then 153.79 and 150.44; finally 146.75. These are sweep magnets if trend persists.
  • Above: 160.8–161.6 (S2/38.2% fib/EMA confluence), 163.7–165.9 (50–61.8% fib) and 167.1–170.4 (pivot P/R1) – stacked supply shelves.
• Strategy implication: Favor fading rallies into 160.8–163.7; secondary sell zone 165.8–166.8 if a stronger squeeze occurs.

Elliott wave (high level, qualitative)

• The early-Nov break resembles a higher-degree wave 3 or C from the October distribution top. The 11-10/11 bounce to ~171–172 looks like a lower-degree corrective wave (iv) inside the ongoing impulse. If so, a wave (v) extension toward 151–147 is consistent before any larger-degree countertrend.

Harmonic patterns

• No clean, high-confidence harmonic completion near current price. The most relevant geometry is the fib retrace cluster above price (38.2–61.8) aligning with supply.

Correlation and macro context (generalized)

• Crypto majors often correlate with BTC risk-on/off swings. Without BTC feed here, base-case remains: if majors are soft, SOL underperforms in beta terms. Our setup does not rely on external confirmation; the SOL-only tape is sufficiently bearish.

Risk, invalidation, and scenarios (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60–65% probability):
  • Early/Asian session relief bounce toward 160.8–162.0 (38.2% fib + S2 pivot retest + hourly 20 EMA/VWAP neighborhood).
  • Sellers reassert; price rotates down to 154–152 region. If momentum persists, extension probe to 151–150 handle is plausible.
• Bearish continuation (25–30% probability):
  • Minimal bounce; a direct breakdown below 155.8 and 155.4 leads to a grind into 153.8 and 150.4 by end of 24h window.
• Bullish surprise/invalidation (10–15% probability):
  • Strong squeeze closes back above 166.5–167.1 (reclaim of daily pivot and hourly 50 EMA). That would neutralize the immediate short thesis and put 170.4 back in play. A daily close above ~170 would be required to flip the larger short bias to neutral.

Trade plan synthesis

• Edge concentration: Multiple-tool confluence for short entries at 160.8–161.6:
  • Fib 38.2% of 171.6→155.8 drop ≈ 161.55.
  • Classical S2 from 11-10 at 160.83 now resistance.
  • Hourly mean/20 EMA and regression median clustered ~160–162.
  • Below daily pivot (167.13) and R1 (170.40), preserving bearish context.
• Targeting: First take-profit magnet is 151–151.5 (just above 150.44/11-07 low, below 153.79/11-06 low). This balances reachability in 24h with high-prob R:R.
• Risk management (for reference): Logical stop above 166.2–166.8 (above 61.8% intraday fib and hourly structure). That provides roughly 4.6–5.2 points risk versus ~10.4 points reward (161.6→151.2), an R:R ~2.0–2.3.

Timing and execution

• Primary: Place a limit short at 161.6. If filled on a relief rally, ride the trend back toward 151.2.
• Contingency: If price fails to bounce and breaks 155.8 decisively with rising volume, momentum shorts are viable, but this offers a slightly worse R:R versus the planned limit entry.

Conclusion and 24-hour outlook

• The multi-timeframe confluence (trend, moving averages, RSI/MACD posture, Bollinger behavior, pivots, and fibs) supports a Sell-the-rip approach. Expect a rally into 160.8–162.0 to fade, then continuation to 152–151 with potential overshoot to 150 if momentum persists. Invalidation above ~166.5–167.1.