SOL at the Edge: Pivot S1 Targets $148 as Bears Press Their Advantage

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Bearish continuation with a liquidity sweep of the 150 handle likely, extension toward 148–147 probable before any meaningful bounce. Best R:R is fading rallies into 156–157.
• Rationale: Price sits well below the 20D/50D MAs, daily RSI ~32 (weak but not capitulative), bounces capped at the 38.2% retracement of the Nov rebound, 1h structure lower highs/lows, VWAP/EMA overhang near 156–160, and classic pivots place S1 at ~148.7—aligning with untested liquidity pools below round-number 150 and with the Nov 4 capitulation wick at 146.75.

Multi-timeframe price action and structure

• Daily trend: Lower highs and lower lows since late Oct. After the Oct 10 rug-pull, price failed multiple attempts to reclaim the 200 zone; subsequent lower-high sequence into Nov culminated in a sharp break on Nov 11. The Nov 10 rebound stalled right at ~167 (coincident with 38.2% retrace of the 146.75→200 swing), then reversed hard—bearish sign of supply dominance.
• 4h/1h structure (today): Rallies capped 160–161; intraday high 160.96 sold quickly, followed by successive lower highs (161.0 → 160.9 → 159.1 → 154.3). Low of day printed 151.47 with only a modest bounce to ~154. Price remains below intraday VWAP and below typical 1h 200EMA, keeping momentum negative.
• Levels of interest:
  • Resistance: 156.0–157.5 (1h supply, VWAP/MA confluence), 160–161 (1h 200EMA/overhang), 164.5, 167.3 (Nov 10 high/38.2% retrace).
  • Support: 151.5 (today’s low), 150.0 (psych), 148.7 (classic S1 from prior day), 146.75 (Nov 4 capitulation low), 142.8 (S2).

Key indicators (daily unless noted)

• Moving averages:
  • 20D SMA ≈ 176 (price ≈ 154, 12% below)—bearish regime.
  • 50D SMA well above price (est. >190), confirming medium-term downtrend.
  • Short-term EMAs (8/21) trending down with negative slope; any bounces into the 8/21 EMA band (mid/upper 150s) have been sold—useful as dynamic resistance for entries.
• RSI (14D): Approx ~32. Mildly oversold but not in capitulation. In downtrends, RSI can grind 25–35 while price makes lower lows—supports another leg down before any durable rebound.
• MACD (12,26,9): Below zero with negative histogram; momentum remains bearish. Any slight histogram contraction intraday has not translated into structure repair.
• Stochastic: Low and curling but below midline; in trending markets, Stoch upturns often fail beneath 50—consistent with “sell-the-rip.”
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ~176; lower band est. low-140s. Price riding the lower half of the envelope suggests trend pressure persists; room exists to tag 148–146 without band breach.
• ATR (14D): Elevated multi-week—daily ranges 10–15+. Expect sizable intraday excursions; S1/S2 taps are realistic within 24h.
• Ichimoku (daily): Price below Tenkan and Kijun, and below a thick Kumo. Bearish stack (price < Tenkan < Kijun < Cloud). Tenkan/Kijun likely overhead near 160–170, adding to resistance confluence.
• ADX/DMI: ADX rising with -DI > +DI (qualitatively from price action), indicating trend strength to the downside rather than mean-reverting chop.

Classical levels and confluence

• Classic pivots (built from Nov 11 H/L/C: 171.61/154.26/154.57):
  • Pivot P ≈ 160.15 (today’s rallies failed below this—bearish).
  • S1 ≈ 148.69: Primary magnet if 150 breaks; aligns with liquidity below round number and with technical targets from range breakdowns.
  • R1 ≈ 166.04: Above current 24h expectation; any squeeze stalling beneath maintains bearish bias.
• Fibonacci analysis:
  • Oct 26 (200.03) → Nov 4 (146.75) base: 38.2% = ~167.1 (Nov 10 high), 50% = ~173.4, 61.8% = ~179.7. Rejection at 38.2% followed by lower lows implies weak countertrend energy and opens path to retest the base (146–147).
  • Intraday Nov 12 drop 160.96 → 151.47: 38.2% pullback ≈ 154.98; 61.8% ≈ 157.45. Price probed 155–158 earlier and failed—momentum still points down.

Pattern read and market profile

• Descending channel / bear flag on the 1h: Tight, controlled selloffs followed by shallow bounces into supply. A measured move of the latest flag projects ~148–147.
• Liquidity profile: Clear liquidity resting below 151.47 and 150. Sweep risk is high during Asia/early EU sessions. Topside liquidity pockets sit at 156–157 and 160–161—ideal fade zones.
• Volume: Distribution on rallies, expansion on down legs (Nov 3–6 and Nov 11). Today’s bounce attempts lacked volume follow-through.

Elliott wave framing (short-term)

• From Nov 2–4: impulsive wave down (1), Nov 4–10 corrective (2) stalling at 38.2%. Nov 11 initiates wave (3) down; today likely a (4) flat/flag retracement, setting up a (5) spike to marginal new lows (147–149) before exhaustion. Timing fits within the next 24h.

Intraday execution tools

• VWAP: Price below session VWAP most of the day; rejections near VWAP/midline. Expect VWAP to sit near 155–156 in coming hours—good for short triggers.
• Heikin Ashi (conceptually): Predominantly red candles with small upper wicks today—trend persistence.
• Donchian/Price channels (20D): Upper bound far above; lower bound expanding down—no squeeze signal.

Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (60%): Fade 156–157, break 151.5–150, tag 148–147 (S1/previous wick). Reaction bounce into 150–152 late.
• Alternate (30%): Range 151–159 chop; sellers defend 159–160 pivot; close ~153–156.
• Squeeze tail (10%): Sharp reclaim of 160 pivot, intraday close above 161–162 forces short-cover into 164–167; trend bias would shift to neutral if 4h closes above 164.

Risk management and invalidation

• Invalidation for short idea (tactical): 1h close above 161.0 or a sustained reclaim of pivot 160.1 followed by higher low on 15–60m. Structural invalidation: 4h close above 164.5 (back inside prior supply zone), which would argue for a broader squeeze to 167.
• Stop guidance (not part of order fields): Preferred stop 161.8 to 162.2 depending on fill; conservative stop 164.6 above supply shelf. Take partials into 150.5–149.5; leave runner for 147–146.8.

Probability-aligned trade plan

• Plan: Sell the rip into 156–157 confluence (VWAP/EMA/swing supply). Target 148.0 (near S1/liquidity pocket) within 24h.
• Why not buy the dip at 151–152? Daily trend pressure and failed 38.2% retrace argue any bounce is likely corrective; R:R inferior versus shorting into resistance. Better to let price sweep 150s and reassess for a separate, later mean-reversion long if momentum flips.

24h price path prediction

• Asia: Drift to 155–156 and fail, or quick liquidity run to 156–157.
• EU open: Selling resumes, 151.5 retest and break; acceleration through 150.
• US: Profit-taking bounce from 147–148 back toward 150–152 into the close.

Conclusion

• Confluence from trend, momentum, pivots, Fibonacci, and intraday structure favors a tactical short. Optimal entry: 156.1. Primary take-profit: 148.0. Expectation window: next 24 hours.