Short the Pivot: SOL’s Breakdown Rally Is a Sell (Targeting 136.8)

Summary of the tape (what just happened)

• SOL last daily close printed 142.19 after a persistent intraday selloff that pressed a fresh multi‑month low at 141.53. The prior key swing low at 146.75 (Nov 4) has been taken out decisively, converting it into overhead resistance.
• Intraday (hourly) sequence today: lower highs and lower lows from ~156.9 down to ~141.5, followed by a narrow, indecisive pause around 142.1–142.4 into the session close. That’s classic momentum exhaustion-to-pause, not yet a reversal.
• Volume spiked on the breakdown legs (notably 17:00–20:00 UTC), confirming participation on the move down.

Directional bias in one line: Primary trend is down; a reflex bounce toward the daily pivot (~146.9) is probable within 24 hours, but rallies are sells. Expect a fade into 136–138 if the bounce fails.

Step-by-step, multi-tool technical analysis (deep dive)

1. Market structure and trend

• Daily structure: lower highs since late September (~249 → 244 → 234 → 228 → 223 → 208/202 → 197/193 → 167 → 153 → 142). Clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows = established downtrend.
• Breakdown confirmation: Price sliced below the Nov 4 low (146.75). A close below a prior significant swing low typically triggers a measured continuation lower as trapped longs exit on bounces.
• Measured move projection: Prior impulse (Nov 10 high 171.6 to Nov 12 low 151.5) ≈ 20 points. Breakdown pivot ~147.7; 147.7 − 20 ≈ 127.7 as an extended objective. For the next 24 hours, we focus on nearer objectives (136–138) per pivots/ATR; 127–130 is a stretch target on continued momentum days.

2. Moving averages (trend filters)

• Fast EMAs (5/9/20 day): Although we don’t compute exact values here, price has been below the 5/9D EMAs for multiple sessions and well beneath the 20D SMA. That places SOL firmly in a bearish regime. Typical behavior in such regimes: mean-reversion rallies up to the 9–20D MAs get sold.
• 50D/100D/200D: Given the last month spent between ~230 and ~150, the 50D+ MAs are far above current price, reinforcing a structural bear.
• Takeaway: MAs reinforce “rallies are sells,” and the first logical sell zone is at/near daily pivot or shallow Fib retraces.

3. RSI/Stochastics (momentum/overbought-oversold)

• Daily RSI is likely deep oversold (low 30s or 20s) after a multi-session bleed and a breakdown day. Oversold alone does not imply immediate reversal; in downtrends RSI can embed below 40 while price continues to drift lower.
• Hourly RSI showed intraday capitulation and a small basing attempt near 142, consistent with a reflex bounce setup, not a trend change.
• Stochastic oscillators would be pinned low on daily; intraday can cycle up to reset before next leg down.

4. MACD (trend/momentum continuity)

• Daily MACD line < signal line and histogram negative/increasing on breakdown = bearish momentum continuation. No bullish cross evident.
• Intraday MACD shows a flattening of the histogram at the close, consistent with a short-term bounce (mean-reversion) before the dominant trend resumes.

5. Bollinger Bands (volatility/mean reversion)

• Price is riding or has pierced the lower band on the daily. Statistically, a 1–2 session snapback toward the 20-band midline starts with a first step: tag back toward the lower band zone and/or a shallow retrace. In trending selloffs, the first bounce often stalls well below the mid-band. That aligns with selling a bounce rather than knife-catching long.

6. ATR and range analysis (volatility)

• Recent daily ranges: ~9–17 points; rough ATR ≈ 12 points.
• From 142, ±ATR implies a feasible 24h range: 130–154. Expectation: bounce toward 146–149 (shallow retrace) is feasible; downside extension to 136–138 aligns with ~0.5–0.7 ATR and classic pivot S1 (see below).

7. Fibonacci retracements of the latest downswing (Nov 11 high → Nov 13 low)

• Swing high: ~171.61 (Nov 11)
• Swing low: ~141.53 (today)
• 23.6%: 148.63
• 38.2%: 153.02
• 50%: 156.57 Interpretation: In strong downtrends, first meaningful sell zones are the 23.6–38.2 retraces. Confluence with other tools points to 146.9–149.0 (pivot + 23.6%) as an optimal fade zone; 152–153 (R1/38.2%) as secondary if a stronger bounce occurs.

8. Classical daily floor pivots (using today’s H/L/C: 156.96 / 141.53 / 142.19)

• Pivot (P): (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 146.89
• R1: 2P − L ≈ 152.25
• S1: 2P − H ≈ 136.82
• R2: P + (H − L) ≈ 157.62
• S2: P − (H − L) ≈ 131.46 Interpretation:
• Price closed below P, skewing intraday bias bearish.
• Probable bounce magnet: Pivot at ~146.9.
• Probable next support magnet: S1 ~136.8.
• Excellent confluence: short near P with a target near S1.

9. Volume/participation

• Breakdown legs carried higher relative volume (hourly blocks around 17:00–20:00 UTC). That confirms conviction on the sell side.
• No evidence of a volume climax reversal (i.e., no washout wick with extreme volume and immediate reclaim). The last hours were quiet and indecisive, not a V-reversal signature.

10. Candles and microstructure

• Hourly prints into the close resemble a tight-bodied pause after expansion. That typically precedes either a relief bounce to test the nearest supply shelf (147–149 zone) or a brief continuation flush to 140 before bouncing. The absence of a strong rejection wick at the low argues for bounce-then-fade rather than immediate trend reversal.

11. Ichimoku (trend state)

• Price is below Tenkan and Kijun and well below the Kumo; Tenkan < Kijun and forward Kumo likely bearish (given multi-week downtrend). Ichimoku framework: only look short until price reclaims Kijun; bounces to Tenkan/Kijun often sell. Those lines typically align near shallow Fib/Pivot areas after steep drops—again supporting 146.9–149 as a likely supply zone.

12. DMI/ADX

• In a trending selloff ADX rises, −DI > +DI. Expect that configuration now. ADX rising confirms trend strength; strategy bias favors selling strength over buying weakness.

13. Regression channel / trendline context

• A descending channel from early October fits price action; today’s low touches or slightly pierces the lower bound. First bounce generally retests mid-channel (which, by eyeballing, sits near high 140s). Until the upper channel line is reclaimed, trend continuation is the base case.

14. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• From 171.6 high:
  • Wave 1 down to ~151–153
  • Wave 2 up to ~160s (brief)
  • Wave 3 extended to 141.5 (today)
  • Expect wave 4 corrective bounce to 146–149
  • Then a final wave 5 probe into 134–138 before a larger countertrend rally. This matches our pivot/Fib levels and the 24h tactical plan.

15. Correlation and context check

• SOL often correlates with BTC/ETH risk tone. We do not have BTC/ETH tape here, but the broad crypto weakness since October supports the macro bear impulse. Any BTC relief bounce could assist our anticipated SOL pop to pivot before renewed selling.

16. Scenario mapping for the next 24 hours

• Base case (55–60%): Reflex bounce to 146.5–149.0 (pivot + 23.6% Fib) followed by rejection and a roll toward 138–137 (S1 ~136.8 possible on momentum). Close near 138–141.
• Bear acceleration (25–30%): Minimal bounce; early flush through 141.5 to 139–136.8, then a choppy consolidation 137–142. If this triggers first, expect a later-day bounce to 144–146 that still fails.
• Squeeze risk (10–15%): Oversold squeeze pushes beyond pivot to 151–153 (R1/38.2%). That would be a higher-odds short location; daily trend remains down unless 153+ holds into a daily close and follow-through to 156–157 occurs.

17. Risk management, execution, and invalidation (tactical)

• Preferred execution: Place a limit short in the 146.7–147.2 window (pivot proximity), accepting slippage up to 148.6 if momentum overshoots. Our model target aligns with S1 ~136.8.
• Invalidation for the setup (stop guidance): A daily/hourly sustained reclaim above 152.3–153.1 (R1 + 38.2% Fib) would weaken the short thesis and suggest a deeper mean reversion toward 156–157. For planning, a protective stop in the 152.6–153.5 zone is prudent.
• Position sizing: Given ATR ≈ 12 and target ~10 points from ideal entry, size so that a 5–6 point stop (relative to 147 entry) risks ≤1% of capital.

18. Synthesis and conclusion

• Confluence:
  • Trend: firmly bearish
  • Structure: breakdown below 146.75 support
  • Momentum: negative, but short-term oversold
  • Pivots/Fib: pivot at 146.9; S1 at 136.8; 23.6% Fib at 148.6
  • Volume: confirms breakdown
• Trade: Short the bounce into pivot/supply; target S1 area within 24h. If the bounce fails to materialize, a secondary plan is a momentum continuation short on a 141.5 break with a slightly nearer target; however, the optimal RR favors selling the bounce.

24-hour price path prediction

• Expected intraday high: 146.5–149.0 (if bounce materializes)
• Expected intraday low: 136.5–138.5
• Likely close: 138–141 (bearish bias maintained)

Final tactical call

• Decision: Sell (Short)
• Optimal open (limit): 146.90 (daily pivot confluence)
• Profit target: 136.80 (S1 pivot, aligns with measured continuation and ATR)
• Not shown in order fields but advised: stop-loss 152.60–153.20 (above R1/38.2% Fib) for disciplined risk control.