SOL hammer with volume: setting up a 24h relief rally into 144–149

Snapshot and context

• Instrument: Solana (SOL)
• Timestamp: 2025-11-14 ~22:00 UTC
• Current price: 140.51
• Today’s range (H1 data): High 145.39, Low 136.09, Close (latest) 140.51
• Recent regime: Persistent downtrend since early October with acceleration lower in November; today shows large lower wick and heavy volume (potential selling climax/hammer-type day)

Multi-timeframe market structure

• Weekly: Lower highs since September peak (~249), impulsive downside legs, indicating macro downtrend still intact.
• Daily: Clear sequence of lower highs/lower lows from 10/10 breakdown. Nov 3–4 flush (166→155), brief mean reversion (to 167), then continuation lower into 145 (11/13) and 136–141 (today). Today’s candle resembles a long lower-shadow hammer after three heavy red days—often a short-term exhaustion signature.
• H4/H1: From the 11/10 swing high (170.16), price stair-stepped down. Intraday today: selling climax around 12:00 UTC at 136.05 on high volume, followed by a rebound to 143.5 and a controlled pullback to ~140.5. This is consistent with a developing intraday base/attempted higher low within a still-bearish larger channel.

Key levels (confluence-driven)

• Support
  • 136.0–136.5: Today’s capitulation low; first line in the sand.
  • 133.0–134.0: Next potential shelf if 136 breaks (prior reaction lows/volume vacuum).
  • 128.0: Extension/overshoot zone if a fresh breakdown accelerates.
• Resistance
  • 142.8–143.8: Intraday supply (multiple H1 rejections 15:00–16:00), also near hourly MA cluster.
  • 144.0–145.5: 0.236 daily Fib retrace zone and yesterday’s breakdown area; strong overhead supply.
  • 149.0–150.0: 0.382 daily Fib retrace from 170.16→136.09; next magnet if a squeeze develops.
  • 153.0: 0.50 Fib and prior pivot. Unlikely within 24h unless a pronounced short squeeze.

Volatility and volume

• ATR (daily, est.): ~10–12 based on recent sessions (large ranges: 9–16). Implies 24h expected move ~7–9% from spot (≈ ±10–12 points). Probable envelope for next 24h: 129–151.
• Volume: Elevated today (≈8.4B so far), bigger than prior day (7.35B), consistent with capitulation/stopout behavior. High-volume lower wick often precedes a relief bounce as supply gets absorbed.

Indicators and tools

1. Moving averages (approximations from recent path)

• Daily 20SMA trending down sharply, likely in the 165–175 band; price is well below—oversold relative to mean.
• Daily 50SMA likely ~185–195; well above price—macro bearish.
• H1 20/50 EMAs: Price tried reclaiming the 20EMA during the bounce; 50EMA sits near 143–144. A decisive H1 close above ~144 would signal better odds for a push into 149–150. Impact: Position below falling MAs = bearish backdrop, but significant distance from 20/50-day MAs adds mean-reversion tailwind for a 24h bounce.

2. RSI

• Daily RSI (inferred): High 20s to low 30s—oversold zone after multi-day drawdown.
• H1 RSI: Printed deeply oversold on the 136 flush, then put in higher lows while price held higher lows vs 12:00—suggests bullish momentum stabilization (potential bullish divergence around midday). Impact: Oversold daily + intraday momentum stabilization supports a relief rally attempt.

3. MACD

• Daily MACD: Negative and below signal; histogram extended. Not yet a bullish cross, so macro pressure persists.
• H1 MACD: Likely curling up from deeply negative; a push above 143–145 could flip H1 momentum positive temporarily. Impact: Favors only a tactical bounce; trend reversal unconfirmed.

4. Bollinger Bands

• Daily: Price pressed/pierced lower band on 11/13–11/14; today’s long lower wick suggests a potential mean-reversion toward the 20-day mid-band—but that’s far above and unlikely in 24h. Short-horizon mean reversion points to upper H1 band tests first (144–146).
• H1: Bands expanded on the dump; now contracting. Price near mid-band; upper band ~144–145. A band walk to the upside is possible if 143.8 is reclaimed. Impact: Supports a bounce toward 144–146 in the short run.

5. Ichimoku

• Daily: Price far below cloud; Kijun/Tenkan above—bearish regime. No daily reversal yet.
• H1: Price still below cloud; cloud base ~143–145 forms immediate resistance. A clean H1 close through the cloud would open 148–150. Impact: Near-term test of cloud underside (143–145) likely; acceptance above would extend bounce.

6. Fibonacci retracements (swing 170.16 → 136.09)

• 23.6% = 144.12 (near intraday supply)
• 38.2% = 149.12 (next pivot)
• 50% = 153.12
• 61.8% = 157.10 Impact: 144–145 is first meaningful retrace/sell area; 149–150 is achievable if a squeeze carries through.

7. VWAP (anchored to today’s session)

• Given distribution (heavy volume near lows, rebounds near 142), session VWAP likely around 141–142. Price just below; reversion to VWAP is a common path. Impact: Supports an initial push toward 141.5–143 zone; acceptance above favors 144–146.

8. ADX/Trend strength (qualitative)

• Daily trend strong bearish (ADX likely elevated), so countertrend trades are shorter-duration and must be managed tightly. Impact: Treat longs as tactical scalps into resistance; do not overstay if momentum stalls.

9. Parabolic SAR / Supertrend (qualitative)

• Likely flipped short days ago on daily; on H1, a reclaim above ~144 could flip intraday bias to long for a session or two. Impact: Confirms that 144–145 is the decision zone for extension.

10. Market profile / volume analysis (qualitative)

• Heavy prints near 145 on 11/13 and today’s high-volume wick below 140–138 indicate:
  • Overhead supply 144–145 from trapped longs.
  • Potential absorption below 138–136. Impact: Path of least resistance near term is a squeeze to test 144–145, where supply re-tests the rally.

11. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• From 170 → 136 may complete a 5-wave intraday/daily impulse. A countertrend ABC toward 144–150 fits typical proportions. Impact: Supports expecting a corrective rise before trend resumes.

12. Pattern read

• Today’s daily hammer after a three-day slide is a classic short-term reversal signal.
• H1 shows a possible descending channel break attempt; higher low post-136 implies base-building. Impact: Increases odds of a 24h relief rally unless 136 breaks decisively.

Scenarios for next 24 hours

• Base case (55%): Relief rally to 144–146, with spikes possible to 147–149 if 145 flips to support; then consolidation.
• Bearish continuation (30%): Failure below 142–143, loss of 139.5 leads to a retest of 136; if 136 fails, extension toward 133–134.
• Bullish extension (15%): Strong squeeze through 146–147, tagging 149–150 (38.2% retrace) before sellers reassert.

Trading plan (tactical, 24h horizon)

• Bias: Buy the dip for a relief rally; treat as countertrend scalp.
• Entry (limit): 140.20 (slight pullback from current 140.5 to improve R:R and execution vs session VWAP).
• Take profit: 148.80 (near 38.2% retrace cluster 149–150; front-run the round number).
• Suggested stop (not in schema, but risk control): 134.80 (below today’s capitulation pocket and undercut risk). This yields R:R ≈ (148.8−140.2)/(140.2−134.8) ≈ 1.6.
• Add-ons/management: If price reclaims and holds above 145 on strong H1 volume, consider trailing to 146.5 and letting part ride toward 149–150. If price rejects 143.8–145 and loses 139.5, consider exiting early to protect capital.

Why Buy vs Sell now

• Pros for Buy: Daily oversold, hammer with heavy volume, intraday higher low structure, nearby VWAP magnet, Bollinger mean reversion, Fib 23.6% target aligns with overhead test.
• Cons for Buy: Macro downtrend intact; overhead supply thick at 144–145; any negative macro headline can resume the dump.
• Pros for Sell: Trend-following edge exists on rallies into resistance; however, shorting directly into a fresh capitulation low has inferior timing and weaker R:R compared with waiting for a pop. Conclusion: For the next 24h, the probability-weighted outcome favors a relief bounce into 144–149 before sellers reassert. That supports a tactical long with disciplined risk.

Risk notes

• Weekend liquidity can amplify moves (both ways). Keep size moderate and consider using a trailing stop after 144 is tagged.
• Invalidation: A clean H1 close below 136 would negate the bounce thesis and favor 133–134 quickly.

Price path projection (illustrative)

• Early: 139.8–141.5 balance, attempt at VWAP reclaim.
• Mid-session: Test 142.8–143.8; if accepted, extension to 144.5–146.
• Late: If momentum persists and 145 holds as support, squeeze wicks into 147.5–149.2 area.