SOL at the Edge: Sell the Bounce into 139, Aim for a Liquidity Sweep to 132

Executive summary

• Bias for next 24h: Bearish continuation after a weak, low-volume bounce. Expect a relief pop toward 138.5–140.5 to be sold, then a breakdown through 135 to probe 133–132.
• Trade idea: Sell the bounce into the 38.2–61.8% intraday retracement cluster and prior support turned resistance (≈138.2–140.7). Target next liquidity pocket at 132–133.

1. Market regime, structure, and trend

• Higher time frame: Since the September peak near 253, SOL has been in a persistent downtrend with a series of lower highs and lower lows. The October 10th breakdown from ~221 into the high-180s shifted momentum decisively bearish. Subsequent rallies have been corrective and sold.
• Recent daily structure: Nov 10–14 rolled from 167.37 to 138.68 (strong markdown). Nov 15 attempted a small stabilization (close 139.54). Nov 16 intraday made a new swing low at 135.35 and closed near 136.18 — continuation of lower lows.
• Intraday (hourly, Nov 16): Early push to ~143 failed; sharp sell cascade 15:00–17:00 to 135.87; post-drop consolidation 135.5–137.8, then a tepid bounce faded. That’s classic bear-flag behavior: sharp impulse down, then a tight, upward-to-sideways channel that usually resolves lower.

2. Key support and resistance levels

• Immediate resistance: 138.2–140.7 (retracement cluster from today’s leg; see Fib below), 141.5, then 143.0.
• Immediate support: 135.3–135.9 (today’s low and round number shelf). If 135 breaks decisively, air pockets to 133.2 and then 131.8–132.2.
• Above: 145 (former shelf), 155–156 (breakdown zone), 167 (swing high). These are unlikely in the next 24h without a regime shift.

3. Moving averages (daily; approximate)

• Price trades well below the 20D, 50D, 100D, and 200D MAs (est. 20D ~170s, 50D ~190s+, 100–200D ~200s). This “below all MAs” posture signals a mature downtrend. Any intraday bounces toward shorter MAs (on lower TFs) are sell candidates in the current regime.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Likely in the mid-20s to low-30s after the recent slide — oversold but not diverging strongly. Oversold in trends can persist; it often fuels “walk-the-band” behavior rather than immediate reversals.
• Hourly RSI/Stoch: Intraday bounce raised RSI off sub-30 levels but failed to reclaim 50; this is characteristic of bearish momentum regimes where oscillators top out mid-range before rolling over.
• MACD (daily): Below signal with a negative histogram. Any histogram contraction seems tentative; it would take multiple green days to confirm a bullish turn. Not present.

5. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (daily): Price is riding the lower band (“band walk”), a bearish continuation signal. Mid-band (20D MA) is far overhead; probability of a full mean reversion in 24h is low.
• ATR: Expanded during the selloffs. Elevated ATR favors continuation and larger intraday swings; it also supports using rallies to establish shorts rather than chasing breakdowns at poor prices.

6. Volume, OBV, and Wyckoff lens

• Daily volume rose on down days through Nov 14, consistent with supply dominance. Nov 16’s largest intraday volume prints coincided with the down impulse into 135s, not on the bounce — another tell that rallies are for selling.
• OBV (conceptually) trends down with these distributions; no sign of sustained accumulation yet.
• Wyckoff: We are in markdown. Brief intraday attempts at automatic rallies aren’t followed by genuine secondary tests or absorption; supply keeps capping price under prior supports.

7. Fibonacci mapping

• Latest intraday swing: Nov 15 high ~143.59 to Nov 16 low ~135.35.
  • 38.2%: ~138.2
  • 50%: ~139.47
  • 61.8%: ~140.70 These align tightly with prior intraday support-turned-resistance and the daily pivot region (see below), creating a high-probability sell zone at 138.2–140.7.
• Larger swing (Nov 10 high 167.37 to Nov 14 low 138.68): 38.2% at ~150.5 — never reached. This failed retracement underscores trend strength and validates a strategy to fade shallow bounces.

8. Ichimoku (daily; qualitative)

• Price is well below the Kumo; Tenkan below Kijun; Chikou beneath price and cloud. Full bearish alignment. Even on lower TFs, price remains below a flattened Kijun after the selloff, favoring reversion-to-Kijun shorts rather than longs.

9. Market profile / VWAP (intraday; conceptual)

• Today’s heavy trading clustered in the mid-136s–137s during the consolidation. A standard-session VWAP likely hovers above spot toward 137–138 given the earlier hours around 140–142. Reversions toward VWAP in bear regimes often get sold; this agrees with the 138–140 sell zone.

10. Pattern analysis

• Bear flag: Post-impulse channel from ~135.8 to ~137.8. Measured move from the flagpole (≈143 to 135 ≈ 8 points) would project as low as ~127 on a full breakdown. For the next 24h, the conservative objective is the nearest liquidity shelf at 133–132.
• Failed rally pattern: Multiple attempts to reclaim 140–141 were rejected quickly, indicative of aggressive supply at that level.

11. Pivot levels (derived from Nov 15 daily OHLC)

• Pivot P ≈ 140.60; R1 ≈ 142.53; S1 ≈ 137.61; R2 ≈ 145.52; S2 ≈ 135.69.
• Today has spent most time below P and near S2; tagging S2 and failing typically leads either to a minor bounce toward S1/P (sell spot) or follow-through to fresh lows.

12. Liquidity, time-of-day, and path expectation

• Liquidity pockets: Stops likely rest under 135 round number and around 133. A sweep below 135 could accelerate to 132s quickly.
• Time-of-day: As APAC opens into early Monday, thin liquidity can amplify moves. Base case path: bounce to 138.5–140.0 in APAC/London, then roll over in NY hours, breaking 135 and running stops toward 133–132.

13. Risk management and invalidation

• Preferred short entry: 139.0 (within 38.2–50% retrace and under daily Pivot P).
• Invalidation/stop (not part of the requested fields but vital): Above 141.2–141.5 (beyond 61.8% retrace and local supply), where structure would threaten a push to 143.
• Target zone: 132.0–133.0. This offers roughly 6–7 points reward versus ~2.2 points risk from a 139 entry — about 3:1 R:R.
• If price fails to bounce and instead breaks 135 first: a momentum add-on is viable on a retest of 135 from below; still, the optimal plan is to sell the bounce for better R:R.

14. Alternative (bull) scenario to monitor

• A strong reclaim and hourly close above 141.5, followed by acceptance above 143, would signal short-term bear invalidation and open a squeeze toward 145–147. Probability low without a catalyst; not the base case.

15. 24-hour forecast

• Base case (≈60%): Bounce to 138.5–140.0, fail, break 135, tag 132–133, and settle 133–135.
• Range case (≈25%): Choppy 135–140 consolidation without decisive break; this still favors fading pops near 139–140.
• Squeeze case (≈15%): Fast reclaim >141.5 triggers stops to 143–145 before rolling back into the downtrend.

Conclusion

• The confluence of a dominant downtrend, lower-highs/lower-lows market structure, persistent negative momentum, band-walk behavior, pivot math, and tight Fibonacci confluence at 138.2–140.7 supports selling the bounce. The next clean downside magnet is 132–133.