Short the Dead‑Cat Bounce: Fading SOL Into 145 Resistance

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Bearish-to-sideways. Expect a relief pop into 142–145 to be faded, with high probability of a subsequent retest of 136–137 support. If 146.7–147.5 breaks on a closing basis, short thesis is invalidated short-term.
• Plan: Sell the bounce into confluence resistance. Optimal entry 144.9, target 136.2.

Multi-timeframe structure and trend

• Weekly/Daily market structure: A pronounced downtrend from the mid‑Sep peak (~253) with persistent lower highs and lower lows. The second major waterfall on Nov 3–4 (to mid‑150s) was followed by a stair-step grind lower to fresh lows on Nov 16 (~134.97). Trend is intact and bearish.
• Daily swing map:
  • Swing high: 253.21 (Sep 18)
  • Intermediate highs: 242–249 (Sep 13–15), 234–238 (late Sep), 221–235 (Oct 1–3), 208–211 (Oct 13–14), 198–205 (late Oct), 167.37 (Nov 10 lower high)
  • Lows: 188.66 (Oct 10 shock), 155.40 (Nov 4), 145.11 (Nov 14 open), new low 134.97 (Nov 16)
• Hourly structure (last 8 hours): Bounce from 136.2–137 to ~140.3 with higher lows intrahour, but still below nearby resistance clusters (141.9, 143.6–145.5). This is typical bear-market mean reversion.

Key levels (confluence)

• Support: 134.9–136.1 (recent lows, lower Bollinger on daily), 133.8 (S1 from classic pivots), 130.3 (S2).
• Resistance: 141.9 (R1 daily pivot), 143.2–143.6 (Nov 15 high/1h supply), 145.5 (Nov 14 high), 146.7 (R2), 150.2 (R3). Above that: 154–155 (Nov 11 close zone), 162–167 (high‑volume node / prior swing).

Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (daily): Bearish regime, hovering low 30s. Price made a marginal lower low on Nov 16 while RSI likely did not make a materially lower low versus Nov 13–14, implying a weak bullish divergence. In bear trends, first divergences often resolve with fades at the first resistance band (142–146) before another down leg.
• RSI (hourly): Mid‑40s to low‑50s after the bounce from 136; room for one more push into low‑to‑mid 140s before stalling.
• Stochastic (daily): Oversold and attempting a curl, which supports a short-lived bounce rather than a trend reversal.
• MACD (daily): Below zero with a shallow histogram contraction; momentum loss, but no confirmed bullish cross. Consistent with countertrend rally into resistance then continuation.
• MACD (hourly): Near or slightly above signal following the bounce; momentum could carry to R1/R2 before rolling over.
• ADX/DMI (daily): ADX elevated (approx. 30+), DI− > DI+, signaling a strong prevailing downtrend. Expect rallies to be sold.

Trend and moving averages

• Moving averages (daily): Price is below the 20D, 50D, and 100D SMAs/EMAs. The 20D is falling sharply and sits far above spot (roughly mid‑160s), 50D around low‑to‑mid 180s, confirming bearish alignment. Any mean‑reversion attempts face multiple dynamic MA resistances well overhead.
• Moving averages (hourly): Short MAs have turned up a touch with the bounce, but remain below higher‑timeframe MAs. Expect them to flatten near 142–144.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily: Elevated (~8–11), consistent with 5–8% day ranges. From 140, that projects a 24h envelope roughly 133–147. That aligns with pivots S1/R2 and recent realized ranges.
• Bollinger Bands (daily): Price hugging the lower band; the 20D mid‑band near ~164 is distant. Lower band resides around 136–138. A tag/rejection pattern is common, followed by a modest snapback that stalls beneath prior highs.
• Bollinger (hourly): Bands expanded on the bounce; price now near the upper band, favoring mean‑reversion back toward the hourly mid‑band (~139–140) after any marginal push.

Supply/demand and volume analytics

• Volume: Heavy sell-side volume on Oct 10 and Nov 3–4 established a distribution-to-downtrend regime. Subsequent down legs still print above-average red candles; green days lack follow-through. Recent lows (Nov 14–16) show stabilizing but not capitulative volume, suggesting supply remains in control.
• Volume profile (visual inference from series): High-volume nodes overhead in 155–165 and 170s; a lighter pocket around 145–150 makes that area a responsive supply zone where rallies struggle.

Fibonacci and measured moves

• Swing: 253.21 (Sep 18) to 136.04 (Nov 14 low). Range = 117.17.
  • 23.6%: 163.68
  • 38.2%: 180.77
  • 50%: 194.63
  • 61.8%: 208.54
  • 78.6%: 228.18
• Current price is far below even the 23.6% retrace; this reinforces that any bounce into mid‑140s is intra‑trend, not reversal. On micro swings since Nov 10, a local ABC up into 143–146 fits a standard 0.382–0.5 retrace of the Nov 15–16 downswing.

Ichimoku (trend filter)

• Daily: Price below cloud; cloud red and thick. Tenkan < Kijun and price below both; Chikou below price and cloud. All five signals bearish. First resistance is the Tenkan/Kijun area far above; no threat of a bullish Kumo break near-term.
• Hourly: Price still below cloud on most lookbacks; intrahour bounce testing underside of a thin cloud near 142–145, which typically acts as resistance in a bearish regime.

Pivot points (classic, computed from 11/16 H/L/C = 143.159/134.966/137.266)

• Pivot P: 138.464
• R1: 141.962
• R2: 146.657
• R3: 150.155
• S1: 133.769
• S2: 130.271 Confluence: R1 aligns with round 142; R2 sits in the 146.5–147 pocket. The 143–146 band includes prior daily highs (143.59 and 145.47), making 144–145 a high-quality fade zone.

Pattern recognition

• Broad descending channel from late Sep with repeated bear flags that break lower. The current bounce resembles another mini flag retest. Fresh lower low on Nov 16 invalidated any double-bottom thesis and reaffirmed the channel.
• Candlesticks: Nov 14 and Nov 16 printed lower wicks, indicating demand near 135, but neither session reclaimed even R1 the next day—typical of weak bounces in downtrends. Latest hourly candles show slowing momentum approaching 140–142.

Risk scenarios and trigger logic

• Base case (≈65%): Price grinds up into 142–145, stalls at R1/previous swing highs or the thin hourly cloud, then rotates lower to retest 136–137 within 24h.
• Bullish alternative (≈25–30%): A stronger squeeze clears 146.7 (R2) and runs weak shorts into 149–150 (R3) before fading. Requires hourly close >147.2; otherwise likely a bull trap.
• Bearish acceleration (≈10%): Immediate failure near 140–142 without tagging 144–145, slicing through P (138.46) and trending to S1 (133.8). If this triggers, prefer a breakdown-retest short near 138.8–139.2.

Trade plan and execution

• Thesis: Short the dead‑cat bounce into confluence resistance. Trend, ADX, MA alignment, and overhead supply favor continuation after a relief pop. Weak bullish divergences argue for patience on entry rather than chasing at 140.
• Entry zone: 143.8–145.2. Optimal single print: 144.90 (inside prior supply and beneath R2, improving fill probability while keeping risk controlled).
• Target: 136.20 (above recent absolute low to increase take‑profit hit rate; aligns with daily lower band/support cluster).
• Invalidator/stop (for risk planning): 147.50 (above R2 146.66 and Nov 14 swing high 145.47, allowing room for a wick). Risk from 144.90 is ~2.60; reward to 136.20 is ~8.70; R:R ≈ 3.35.
• Contingency if no fill and price rolls over: If SOL loses 138.5, look for a breakdown retest at 138.8–139.2 to initiate a smaller short toward 134.5–136.0. If price closes an hourly above 147.2, stand aside—squeeze potential into 149–150 grows.

24-hour price path expectation

• Expected high: 145–147 (if squeeze tags R2)
• Expected low: 133.5–136.5 (S1 vicinity)
• Likely close zone: 137–140

Why not a long here?

• Countertrend long from 136–137 has poor location at this stage; structural trend, MA alignment, and thick overhead supply cap upside. The better risk-adjusted play is to sell into strength where multiple resistances converge.

Bottom line

• Bear market rallies are for selling. Use 144–145 confluence to initiate, target a controlled retest of 136. A decisive reclaim above 147.5 invalidates the setup.