SOL’s 38.2% Pullback Looks Buyable: Eyeing a 136–146 Range and a Push Toward 145–146 in 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Bias (next 24h): Moderately bullish bounce after a textbook 38.2% pullback, with an expected path of dip-to-fill liquidity toward 136–138, then rotation up into 142–146.
• Key levels: Support 136.0 (S1/pivot), 133.6, 130.7; Resistance 144.1 (R1/pivot), 145.7–146.2 (supply), 149.2 (R2), 153.2 (Fib 23.6% of the Sept→Nov decline).
• Trade idea: Buy the dip near 137.6 with take profit near 145.7 (below local supply), using a protective stop (not part of the requested output) below 133.5 to respect structure/ATR.

1. Multi-timeframe trend and market structure

• Higher time frame (daily, Sep→Dec): Clear primary downtrend from mid-September peak (~253) to the late-November low (~122). Price remains below the likely 50/100/200 day SMAs (est. 50D ~160s, 200D ~190s), keeping the broader regime bearish.
• Intermediate structure (Nov 21 → now): Potential base forming. Late-Nov low 122.27, retest zone 126.71 on Dec 1, followed by an impulsive bounce to 146.18 on Dec 4. That creates a higher low (126.7 vs 122.3) and a higher high vs late-Nov highs, hinting at an early trend inflection on the swing timeframe.
• Short-term (last 48h with hourly granularity): After the strong Dec 2–3 impulse (138.7 → 145.7), Dec 4 produced a controlled retracement to ~139 with a notable 19:00 UTC volume spike on the low 138.82, suggestive of a selling climax or liquidity grab. Price is currently riding a shallow falling channel that often resolves with a continuation of the prior upswing.

2. Moving averages and positioning

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~136.1, calculated from the last 20 closes. Current price 139.0 is above the 20SMA, signaling short-term bullish bias within a broader downtrend.
• 10-day EMA (approx): ~138–139. Price is hovering around it—typical for a wave-2/flag pullback in an emerging upswing.
• 50/100/200-day SMAs (estimated, given prior price regime 150–250): overhead and declining. Interpretation: tactical longs are counter-trend vs the primary downtrend; respect risk.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI (approx): low-50s after rising from prior oversold conditions—constructive but not overbought; room to run.
• Hourly RSI: dipped toward the mid-30s on the selloff, then stabilized—short-term oversold conditions improving, supportive of a bounce.
• MACD (daily): The 12/26 MACD line has recently curled up from deeply negative; histogram likely positive to flat after today’s pullback—momentum slowed but not reversed.
• Stoch RSI (hourly, inferred): rotated down into or near oversold during the intraday decline; bounces from this region typically fuel a relief leg back to VWAP/midline.

4. Volatility and ranges

• Daily ATR (recent): ~8–10. Today’s range (~8.1) sits near ATR, indicating a normal volatile crypto session. Expect similar size swings over the next 24h.
• Bollinger Bands (20, daily): Midline ~136.1; upper band estimated high-140s; lower band low-120s. Price kissed the upper band yesterday, then mean-reverted toward the midline; current location slightly above the midline suggests room to expand upward again without immediate band constraint.

5. Volume and flow

• Daily: The up-day on Dec 3 had higher volume than today’s down-day. That favors the bullish interpretation (buyers were more aggressive on the advance than sellers on the pullback).
• Hourly: Large volume spike on the 19:00 UTC down candle near 138.8 implies a selling climax/liquidity sweep. Subsequent candles show stabilization—typical footprint of a near-term low (or at least a tradable bounce).
• OBV (qualitative): After basing in late Nov, OBV likely improved with the Dec 2–3 impulse and gave back modestly today; not a classic distribution print.

6. Support/resistance mapping and liquidity

• Immediate supports: 138–140 (intraday shelf), 136.1 (20SMA and daily S1 pivot region), 133.6 (Nov 30 close), 130.7 (Nov 23 close), 126.7 (Dec 1 low), 122.3 (Nov 21 low).
• Immediate resistances: 144.1 (R1 pivot), 145.7–146.2 (yesterday’s high and today’s wick high—fresh supply), 149.2 (R2 pivot), 153.2 (23.6% Fib retrace of the major Sep→Nov downswing), then 155–167 as a heavy distribution band from early-mid Nov.
• Liquidity considerations: Clear resting liquidity below 136.1 and 133.6; upside pools above 144.1 and 146.2. A classic path is a marginal dip to tap 136–137, then rotation to 144–146 to run stops/supply.

7. Fibonacci confluence

• Major swing (9/18 high ~253.21 → 11/21 low ~122.27): 23.6% = ~153.2 (first significant higher-timeframe resistance overhead). Current rally has not yet tested that—a reasonable medium target beyond 24h.
• Minor swing (12/1 low 126.71 → 12/4 high 146.18): 38.2% retrace = ~138.74; 50% = 136.45; 61.8% = ~134.16. Today’s low/close around 139–138.1 aligns with the 38.2%—a healthy, shallow pullback if the impulse is genuine. Deeper but still constructive pullback: 136.5 (50%) and 134.2 (61.8%).

8. Ichimoku (daily, approximations)

• Tenkan (9-period mid) ≈ mid of [recent 9H, 9L] → rough ~136. Price above Tenkan = short-term supportive.
• Kijun (26-period mid) ≈ mid of [26H, 26L] → rough mid/high-140s (~147). Price below Kijun and likely below the cloud → medium-term trend still bearish. A mean-reversion toward Kijun (~147) fits the 145–146 target region.

9. Pattern work

• Bull flag / falling channel on the intraday series: The Dec 4 drip lower has the proportions of a flag after an impulsive advance, with volume diminishing post-climax. A standard measured move points back to 145–146.
• Candles: Today’s daily real body closed below the midpoint of yesterday’s body (dark-cloud-cover-like), typically bearish. However, context matters: it did not undercut the prior day’s low (daily data low ~138.08 vs prior ~137.94—essentially a higher low). That softens the bearish read and fits a controlled 38.2% retracement.

10. Quant pivots for the next session (based on 12/4 H/L/C ~146.18/138.08/138.998)

• Pivot P ≈ (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 141.09
• R1 ≈ 144.09; R2 ≈ 149.19; R3 ≈ 152.20
• S1 ≈ 135.99; S2 ≈ 132.98; S3 ≈ 127.89 Interpretation: Probable intraday rotation between S1 and R1, with tails toward 136 and 145–146. If momentum improves, extension to R2 (~149) is the stretch.

11. VWAP and mean reversion (intraday)

• On Dec 4, price trended below intraday VWAP for most of the day; a reversion toward VWAP in the next session typically targets the 141–143 zone first, then tests R1 (144.1). This aligns with the bounce setup.

12. Risk, ATR and trade construction

• ATR(14) ≈ 8–10 suggests 5–7 dollar intraday swings are commonplace. A tactical long should allow room of at least ~3–4 dollars beneath entry if not trading ultra-tight.
• Structural invalidation: below 133.6 (break of late-Nov shelf and >50% retrace of the 12/1–12/4 leg), with deeper invalidation below 130.7/126.7 (base failure).

13. Scenario analysis (24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Early dip to 136.5–137.8 (S1/50% micro Fib window), stabilization, then push to 142–144, with an extension attempt into 145.7–146.2. Close near the upper half of the day’s range.
• Bear case (25%): S1 fails; swift sweep to 133.6–134.5 (S2/61.8% micro Fib). From there, a bounce to 139–141. If 133.6 breaks on volume, 130.7 opens quickly; this would invalidate the immediate long setup.
• Bull stretch (20%): Strong open, little-to-no further dip; reclaim of 143–144 pivots early, then sustained trend leg to 146–149 (R2) if momentum returns and broader crypto risk-on.

14. Synthesis and decision

• Confluences for a tactical long: higher low structure, 38.2% pullback of the 12/1→12/4 impulse, price above the 20SMA, Tenkan support, climaxy hourly volume at 138–139, and pivot S1 at ~136.0 beneath. Overhead targets naturally cluster at 144.1 and 145.7–146.2.
• Key caution: overarching downtrend remains intact; this is a counter-trend swing within a larger bear regime. Keep risk measured and avoid chasing if price rips directly into 145–146 without a dip.

15. Execution plan

• Entry: Prefer a buy-on-weakness/limit near 137.6 (between micro 38.2% and 50% retrace; above S1/P 136.0–141.1 pocket). If missed, consider a momentum add only on confirmed reclaim and hold above 144.1 with volume (not part of the numeric output).
• Target: 145.7 (below supply band 145.7–146.2 and under R2; improves fill odds). Secondary extension if momentum accelerates: 149.2 (R2) but less probable within 24h.
• Invalidation/stop (for risk management context): Below 133.5 (under S2 and the Nov 30 close), or tighter tactical stop under 135.8 if prioritizing R multiple over durability.

Expected 24h path

• Probable range: 136.0–146.0. Bias: Dip-bid then grind higher; first resistance test at 142–144, with an extension attempt into 145.7–146.2 if momentum breathes.