SOL: Post-Selloff Rebound Targets 129.6 Fib — Buy the Pullback, Sell Into First Resistance

Comprehensive multi-method technical analysis (next 24 hours)

1. Market regime and structure

• Macro trend (daily): From late Sep peak ~241 to mid-Dec low ~119.57, SOL remains in a primary downtrend with a persistent series of lower highs and lower lows. The Dec 3 local high 145.73 followed by successive lower highs near 140, 138, 137.9 and a new low on Dec 18 confirms bearish macro structure.
• Short-term structure (intraday 1h, Dec 19): After bottoming 117.80–119.57 (Dec 18–19), price formed higher lows and higher highs during today’s session: 118.37 → 121.43 → 122.87 → 124.32 → 125.79 → 126.88 → 127.31 (H), then a modest pullback to 126.72. This is a constructive short-term uptrend within a broader downtrend, characteristic of a relief bounce.
• Key levels (confluence): • Support: 125.75 (23.6% Fib), 124.90–125.10 (intraday shelf), 124.12 (hourly swing), 123.20 (Dec 17 area), 121.40 (hourly pivot), 119.57 (cycle low).
  • Resistance: 127.30 (intraday high), 129.56 (38.2% Fib), 130.70–131.00 (micro supply), 132.65 (50% Fib/near 20-D SMA mid-band), 133.3 (Pivot R2 from prior day), 136.0–137.9, 139.0–140.1.

2. Moving averages and mean reversion

• Daily 20-SMA (≈132.8 by rough calc of last 20 closes) is above current price 126.75, implying mean-reversion potential upward toward the mid-band over the next 1–3 days if the bounce persists.
• Daily 50-SMA (not precisely computed, but above 20-SMA given the prior higher prints) remains above price, confirming macro bearish bias; however, price stretched below both MAs yesterday and is now reverting.
• Intraday EMAs (1h): Price reclaimed and is holding above rising short EMAs (e.g., 8/21-EMA equivalents inferred by the sequence of higher lows), indicating bullish short-term momentum.
• Takeaway: Short-term upside toward the 38.2–50% retrace band (129.6–132.7) is probable, with the 20-SMA (~132.8) acting as a magnetic mean-reversion target beyond 24h; within 24h, 129.6 is the first major test.

3. Fibonacci retracements (swing: Dec 3 high 145.73 to Dec 18 low 119.57)

• Range R = 26.1599.
  • 23.6% = 125.75 (already reclaimed, now first support).
  • 38.2% = 129.56 (primary upside target for next 24h).
  • 50% = 132.65 (stretch target, likely beyond 24h unless momentum accelerates).
  • 61.8% = 135.74 (unlikely in 24h without a catalyst).
• Price currently sits between 23.6% and 38.2% — typical zone for continuation after initial bounce, with dips to 125.7–126.0 favored as buyable pullbacks.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI: After the sharp slide into 12/18 close (119.57), RSI likely dipped into or near oversold and is curling up. This supports a relief bounce scenario.
• Hourly RSI: Constructive, likely 55–65 region after a series of higher lows, with mild bearish momentum fade near 127.3 leading to the current minor pullback — providing room for another push toward 129–130 before overbought on the 1h.
• Stochastic RSI (1h): Likely cycling from overbought to midline during the current pullback; a reset near 125.8–126.2 would be ideal for a long trigger.

5. MACD

• Daily MACD: Deeply negative but beginning to flatten; a bullish histogram contraction is typical post-capitulation.
• Hourly MACD: Bullish crossover occurred during the early-session impulse (around 03:00–07:00 UTC), with positive histogram; current pullback reduces histogram — setting up for a potential secondary bullish push if price holds above 125.7–126.0.

6. Bollinger Bands (daily)

• Approx BB basis (20-SMA) ≈132.8; lower band estimated near ~121 and upper near ~144–145 given recent volatility. Yesterday tagged/overshot the lower band (119.6), and today price reverted back inside the bands. Mean reversion typically targets the basis over multiple sessions; in the next 24h, a move to the lower half of the band (≈129–130) is consistent.

7. Ichimoku (contextual, 1h and daily)

• 1h: Price reclaimed the Tenkan and likely hovering around/above the Kijun after the breakout. The cloud (Kumo) ahead is thinning into the 128.5–130 zone; a test into the cloud’s underbelly is probable, with first resistance near 129–130. Tenkan > Kijun and price > cloud edge favors continued short-term upside, contingent on holding ~125.7–126.0.
• Daily: Price remains below the cloud; any bounce is corrective within a broader bearish regime.

8. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Daily volume surged into the 12/18 low (5.84B), suggestive of near-term capitulation. Today’s intraday ramp to 127.3 occurred on healthy volume bursts (notably 03:00–08:00 and 20:00 hours), consistent with fresh dip-buying.
• OBV (inferred): Stabilization and slight uptick from the low align with a relief rally. Sustained demand above 125.7 would further improve OBV.

9. Pivot points (calculated from 12/18 H/L/C ≈ 128.76/117.32/119.57)

• Pivot P ≈ 121.88; R1 ≈ 126.44; R2 ≈ 133.33; S1 ≈ 114.99.
• Today’s price action broke and held above R1 (126.44), which now serves as intraday support; next classical pivot resistance R2 = 133.33 sits above the 38.2% Fib and nearer the 50% Fib, likely beyond 24h without an acceleration phase.
• Immediate magnet zone for the next session is between R1 and the 38.2% Fib (126.4–129.6).

10. VWAP and intraday execution signals

• 1-day VWAP (approx) sits around the mid-125s to mid-126s after the breakout; price is currently above VWAP, indicating buyers in control intraday. Reclaims and holds above VWAP on dips (125.7–126.0) provide high-probability long entries aimed at the 129–130 resistance pocket.

11. Volatility and ATR

• Daily ATR(14) rough estimate ≈ 6–7 given recent ranges; a 24-hour move of +/− 4–6 is normal in current conditions. From 126.7, an upside tags 129.5–131.0 is within typical ATR.
• Hourly ranges today expanded (impulse) and now compressing; expect one more expansion leg into resistance before the weekend liquidity fade.

12. Candles and patterns

• Daily: 12/18 printed a long lower-tail candle (hammer-like) as price rebounded from 117.3 to close 119.6, signaling selling exhaustion. Today is a green continuation day so far.
• 1h: Bull flag / consolidation after the 20:00 spike to 127.40, with a gentle pullback to 126.7 — a typical continuation setup if support holds.
• Elliott wave framing (tactical): A 5-wave decline likely completed into 12/18; current move is an A-B-C corrective rally. Wave A may have ended around 125–126, B a shallow pullback, and wave C projected toward 129.5–130.5.

13. Liquidity and stop-runs

• The sweep of sub-118s (12/19 01:00 low 117.80) cleared downside liquidity and fueled the bounce. Next liquidity pockets sit above 127.3 (today’s highs) and near 129.6 (Fib/structural offers). A quick wick through 127.3 to 128.2–129.0 is plausible once stops are triggered.

14. Synthesis of signals

• Bullish short-term factors: 1h trend up with higher lows; VWAP reclaim; MACD 1h bullish; RSI recovery; break and hold above R1 (126.44); reclaim of 23.6% Fib (125.75); post-capitulation volume signature; BB mean-reversion impulse from lower band.
• Bearish/limiting factors: Dominant daily downtrend; price still below 20/50-D MAs; heavy resistance stack 129.6–133; weekend liquidity may cap follow-through.
• Base case (next 24h): Buy-the-dip continuation toward 129.56 (38.2% Fib), with intraday pullbacks to 125.7–126.1 offering entries.
• Alternative (bearish): A failure to hold 125.7–126.0 opens 124.1–124.3; below 123.2 invalidates the bounce and risks a retest 121.4 and 119.6.

15. Trade plan (tactical, 24h horizon)

• Bias: Long on pullbacks within the 125.7–126.1 demand zone.
• Entry: Limit buy ~125.85 (near 23.6% Fib/above R1 pivot).
• Target: 129.56 (38.2% Fib) for take profit within 24h, where first meaningful supply resides.
• Optional scaling: Partial around 128.9–129.1, remainder into 129.56.
• Invalidation (not part of order but for risk framing): Sustained trade back below 125.5 weakens the setup; below 124.1 risks a revisit of 123.2/121.4.

Forecast (24h): Probable grind-higher with dips bought; expected range 125.5–129.8, with a high-likelihood tag of 129.3–129.6 if 125.7 holds.

Conclusion: Despite the macro downtrend, short-term breadth and momentum favor a continuation of the relief bounce into 129.6. Buy the pullback; take profit into first major resistance.