SOL

Prediction

BULLISH

Target

$141

Estimated

Model

trdz-T52k

Date

2026-01-11

22:00

Analyzed

Solana Price Analysis Powered by AI

SOL Coils Below $141: Range-Rotation Setup Favors a Pullback Buy Into Support

Market snapshot (SOL)

Current price: $138.55 (2026-01-11 22:00 UTC)
Context (daily): Large downtrend since mid-Oct (≈$208) → mid-Nov capitulation (low ≈$122) → late-Dec basing ($120–$129) → early-Jan rebound to $141 and pullback.
Last completed daily candle (so far 2026-01-11 21:57): O 135.73 / H 140.94 / L 135.66 / C 138.55 ⇒ strong bullish day (+2.1% vs open) with upper wick (rejection above $140.9).

1) Trend & Structure (Dow Theory / Market structure)

Higher timeframe (daily)

Primary trend (Oct→Nov): clearly bearish (sequence of lower highs/lows; breakdown from ~$190s into ~$150s).
Secondary phase (late Nov→late Dec): range/base between roughly $120–$145.
Current leg (Jan): rebound from ~$124 to ~$141 (Jan 6), then pullback to ~$135–$136 (Jan 9–10), and now a bounce back to $138.6.

Interpretation: SOL is still inside a broader consolidation after a major selloff, but the near-term structure improved: the market defended the ~$135 area and is attempting to rotate back toward the top of the range.

Intraday (hourly) structure (last ~24h)

Early hours: tight consolidation around $135.8–$136.6.
Midday breakout: sharp impulse from $137 → $138.77 (14:00 candle), followed by a deeper volatility expansion to $141.04 (16:00 candle), then consolidation back to $138.4–$139.9.

Interpretation: Classic impulse → consolidation behavior; however, failure to hold above ~$140 suggests supply overhead.

2) Support/Resistance Mapping (horizontal levels + pivots)

Key supports

$137.85–$138.40: intraday demand zone (multiple hourly closes/support touches; 20:00 low 137.90).
$135.65–$136.10: day’s base and breakout origin (multiple hours clustered here).
$133.3–$134.0: daily structure support (Jan 4–5 area; also prior consolidation).

Key resistances

$139.90–$140.10: repeated intraday stall (18:00 high 139.91; multiple touches).
$140.94–$141.10: session high + prior daily pivot (Jan 6 close zone ~141.10).
$143.0–$145.0: upper range supply (late Nov/early Dec highs; 2025-11-26 close ~143.0).

Market implication: Price is currently below a tight resistance band ($139.9–$141.1). That area will likely determine the next 24h direction.

3) Candlestick / Price action signals

Daily candle behavior

Today’s candle is bullish with an upper wick (attempted breakout above $140.9 rejected).
The last few daily closes show higher closes vs Jan 9–10 (135.7 area), implying short-term momentum turning up.

Intraday candle behavior

The move to $141.04 was followed by distribution/consolidation, not immediate continuation.

Implication: Near-term bias is mildly bullish, but breakout confirmation is lacking; risk of a pullback to retest ~$136–$137 remains.

4) Moving averages (inference from price regime)

Without computing exact SMA/EMA values, we can still infer positioning from the regime:

Price has been trading around $120–$145 for ~6 weeks; thus mid-range MAs (e.g., 20D) likely sit in the low-to-mid $130s.
With price at $138.6, SOL is likely above shorter MAs (bullish short-term) but may still be below longer MAs (50D/100D) from the earlier $180–$200 regime (bearish long-term overhang).

Implication: Tactical upside is plausible, but medium-term rallies tend to meet selling pressure near prior breakdown zones ($143–$150).

5) Momentum (RSI-style reasoning)

The late-Dec base around $120–$129 implies momentum reset (likely mid/low RSI previously).
The early-Jan push to ~$141 and today’s bounce suggest RSI is likely recovering toward neutral-to-bullish (50–60 zone), not extremely overbought.

Implication: Momentum is supportive of another attempt higher, but the $140–$141 rejection hints momentum is not strong enough yet for clean continuation.

6) Volatility (range expansion, ATR logic)

Daily ranges recently: many days with ~$3–$8 range; today’s high-low ≈ $5.28.
Hourly shows a volatility burst (16:00 candle to $141.04) then compression.

Implication: After expansion, markets often mean-revert/consolidate before the next leg. For the next 24h, expect two-way movement with a bias to test either:

resistance again ($140–$141), or
support retest ($136–$137.5).

7) Volume analysis (relative/behavioral)

The daily candle today shows higher volume than Jan 10 (2.91B vs 1.63B), aligning with the bullish reversal attempt.
Intraday: highest volumes during the breakout/impulse period (15:00–16:00), typical of breakout participation + profit taking afterward.

Implication: The move has participation, but the post-spike stall suggests mixed conviction. This often resolves with a retest of the breakout area.

8) Pattern recognition (range + breakout attempt)

Since late Nov: range/basing between ~120 and ~145.
Current price (138.6) is in the upper-middle of the range.
Today looks like a range rotation toward the top, not a confirmed range breakout.

Implication: Best risk/reward is usually buying support in a range (near $136–$137) rather than buying directly into resistance ($140–$141).

9) 24-hour forecast (scenario-based)

Base case (higher probability): mild bullish consolidation

Likely path: pullback/retreat to $137.2–$136.6, then rebound attempt.
Expect at least one more test of $139.9–$141.1.

Bull case (breakout)

Hourly closes reclaim and hold above $141.1 → fast move to $143.0–$144.5 (range ceiling).

Bear case (failed bounce)

Lose $136.3–$135.7 on an hourly closing basis → slide toward $133.3–$132.0.

Net bias (next 24h): slightly bullish / range-rotation up, with overhead resistance at $140–$141 acting as the immediate barrier.

Trading plan (single decision)

Given:

Short-term momentum improving (bounce from $135.7 → $138.6)
Strong support nearby ($136–$137.5)
Resistance overhead ($140–$141) but still room for a mean-reversion push

I choose: Buy (Long), but only on a pullback to improve risk/reward.

Optimal entry (open price)

Open (Buy) at: $137.20
- Rationale: sits in the intraday support band ($137.85–$138.40) but allows for a deeper retest; also close enough to invalidate quickly if breakdown occurs.

Take-profit (close price)

Close (Take profit) at: $141.00
- Rationale: just below the day’s high ($140.94) / key resistance; higher fill probability than aiming above $141.1.

(If price never pulls back to $137.20 and instead breaks above $141.1 with strength, the better trade becomes a breakout continuation—but per your request I’m providing one optimal open price from current conditions.)