Tradzar
Solana Price Analysis Powered by AI
SOL Rejection at $144: Heavy-Volume Bull Trap Signals 24H Downside Toward $136 Support
SOL (Solana) — Multi-timeframe technical read (Daily + Intraday)
1) Market structure & trend
Daily (swing context):
- From mid-Oct (
$200+) to mid/late-Nov ($120–140) SOL experienced a large bearish leg (distribution → markdown). That establishes a broader downtrend / lower-high regime. - Since late Nov through late Dec, price formed a base between ~$120 and ~$145 (range-building).
- Early Jan saw a push up to ~$143 (Jan 6 daily high ~143.04) followed by pullbacks and a lower-high / stall into Jan 12.
Intraday (last ~24h):
- Strong early move to ~$143.88 (notably around 03:00–05:00 and again 16:00) failed to hold.
- Price then printed a sequence of lower highs and lower lows into the close near $138.66.
- This is consistent with a failed breakout / bull trap at ~143–144 and transition to intraday bearish control.
Conclusion (structure): short-term trend has turned bearish, medium-term is range-to-bearish, long-term since Oct remains down.
2) Key support/resistance (price action levels)
Immediate resistance (overhead supply):
- $140.20–$140.30 (intraday pivot area; prior support that flipped to resistance).
- $141.30 (multiple hourly closes/inflection).
- $142.40–$143.00 (breakdown zone + rejection).
- $143.70–$143.90 (session high; major rejection wick area).
Immediate support:
- $138.60–$138.65 (current area; very near-term).
- $137.60–$138.10 (hourly low area from the prior day; minor shelf).
- $136.30 (recent daily close area; if lost, opens air pocket).
Deeper support (daily range context):
- $133.30–$134.00 (prior breakout area early Jan).
- $129–$130 (prior consolidation).
3) Candlestick / pattern evidence
Daily candle behavior (recent):
- Jan 5–6: impulsive bullish continuation into ~143.
- Jan 7: sharp pullback day (close ~136.31) signaled supply response.
- Jan 11: bounce to ~139.49 close.
- Jan 12: attempted follow-through up to ~143.71 but closed back down near $138.66, leaving a prominent upper wick (rejection). This is typically bearish (failure to accept higher prices).
Intraday pattern:
- A classic upthrust: push above 142–143, then sustained selling pressure back under 140 with weak rebounds.
4) Momentum indicators (inference from price path)
(Exact RSI/MACD values aren’t computed here, but the directional signals are clear from slope/impulses.)
RSI-style read (hourly):
- Early hours showed momentum expansion to the upside (run to 143.9).
- Subsequent hours show momentum rollover (lower highs, inability to regain 141–142), implying RSI would have likely diverged (price made a high, follow-through failed) and then moved toward/under the midline.
MACD-style read (hourly):
- Likely printed a positive impulse during the early surge, then a bearish cross / histogram contraction as price reverted below 141 → 140.
Net momentum read: bearish for the next 24h unless 141.30+ is reclaimed and held.
5) Volatility & range considerations
- Recent daily ranges are meaningful; intraday swings from ~143.9 down to ~138.6 indicate expanding volatility.
- After an expansion event that ends with a rejection wick, markets often mean-revert and/or continue in the rejection direction for at least one more session.
Bias from volatility behavior: downward continuation / retest of lower supports is more probable than immediate V-reversal.
6) Volume analysis (contextual)
- The latest daily candle shows very large volume (~6.06B) versus several prior days, coinciding with failure to hold highs.
- High volume + failure at resistance commonly signals distribution / aggressive selling into strength.
Volume implication: increases confidence in short bias.
7) Multi-timeframe confluence (decision framework)
Bearish confluences:
- Major rejection at 143–144 (failed breakout)
- Intraday lower-high sequence into close
- Heavy daily volume on rejection
- Broader downtrend from Oct still intact; rallies tend to be sold
Invalidation / what would negate the short thesis:
- Reclaim $141.30 and then hold above $142.40–$143.00 on acceptance (not just a wick). That would suggest the rejection was absorbed and a continuation attempt is underway.
24-hour price movement forecast (probabilistic)
Base case (higher probability): continued drift lower / retest supports
- Expected path: attempts to bounce toward $140.2–$141.3 get sold → price revisits $137.6–$138.1 → potential extension to ~$136.3.
Alternative (lower probability): sharp reclaim & squeeze
- If price reclaims and holds above $141.30, it can squeeze back toward $142.4–$143.0; however, $143.7–$143.9 remains strong supply.
Given current price $138.66 and the rejection structure, the trade with best expectancy is a short on a rebound into resistance (better R:R than shorting the exact low).
Trade plan (optimized entry around current price)
Strategy: Sell (short) on pullback into broken support (now resistance).
- Ideal sell zone: $140.20–$140.40 (retest of pivot)
- This improves reward/risk versus selling immediately at $138.66.
Take-profit logic:
- First meaningful support cluster sits at $136.3–$137.6.
- For a clean single target, the highest-probability magnet is ~$136.40 (near prior daily close/support).