Tradzar
Solana Price Analysis Powered by AI
SOL at a Make-or-Break Pivot: Post-Dip Rebound Targets the 148 Liquidity Zone
Multi-timeframe structure (Daily + Hourly)
1) Higher-timeframe context (Daily candles)
- Macro trend (Oct → mid Nov): Strong sell-off from ~200 area down to ~138 and then to a deeper low zone ~119–123 in mid/late Dec. This established a bear-to-base transition.
- Base / accumulation (late Nov → late Dec): Price spent a long time chopping ~120–140, with repeated defenses around 119–123 (notably 12/18–12/26). That is a well-defined demand floor.
- Recent leg up (Jan 1 → Jan 14): Breakout from the base with higher highs/higher lows:
- 01/02 close ~132
- 01/06 close ~141
- 01/13 close ~145.36
- 01/14 close ~146.75 This is a short-term uptrend within a still-recovering larger structure.
- Pullback and bounce (Jan 15 → Jan 16):
- 01/15 had a sharp intraday drawdown (low ~141.04) and closed ~142.33.
- 01/16 bounced and closed ~145.19. This looks like a bullish reset after testing support.
Conclusion (daily): Trend is up from the Dec lows, but price is approaching a prior supply band in the mid/high-140s.
2) Key levels (Price Action / Market Structure)
Using recent swings and closes:
Resistance (supply):
- 145.3–146.8: recent closes and the 01/14 close ~146.75 (local top). This is the most immediate ceiling.
- 148.2: 01/14 high ~148.22 (next upside objective if 146.8 breaks cleanly).
Support (demand):
- 143.5–144.0: intraday consolidation band before the late-day push; also a psychological “mid-band” support.
- 142.0–142.4: multiple hourly prints and prior day’s pivot area.
- 141.0: major daily low from 01/15; a failure below here would negate the bounce.
Volatility & range logic (ATR-style inference)
Even without computing full ATR, the recent daily ranges indicate typical movement:
- 01/15 range: ~146.76 to ~141.04 ⇒ ~5.7
- 01/16 range: ~145.34 to ~140.46 ⇒ ~4.9 So a ~4.5–6.0 USD daily swing is currently normal.
Implication for next 24h: a realistic path is a test of nearby resistance (145–147) and/or a mean reversion dip back toward 143–144, all still within the current volatility regime.
Hourly (intraday) read: momentum, pattern, and order flow hints
1) Intraday trend
From ~15:00 to ~21:00 on 01/16:
- Drop to ~140.46 (hourly low) then a steady sequence of higher closes into 145.18–145.19.
- This is a clear intraday reversal / V-recovery.
2) Micro-structure: breakout vs. late-stage push
- Price reclaimed 143–144 and then pushed to 145+.
- Risk: late-session pushes often invite profit-taking / liquidity sweep back into reclaimed support (143.8–144.2).
3) Volume quality (important caveat)
Hourly volume is inconsistent/partially zero in many bars, so volume-based confirmations (OBV/VWAP validation) are lower confidence. However, the non-zero bursts appear during the rebound phases (notably around 05:00, 20:00, 21:00), consistent with participation on the move up.
Indicator-based assessment (practical, derived from price behavior)
1) Moving averages / trend filters (inference)
Given the advance from ~119 (12/18 low) to ~145 (now), the shorter MAs (e.g., 20D) should be turning up and likely below price. That supports a trend-following long bias unless 141 breaks.
2) RSI-style momentum (inference)
- The daily sequence from 01/07–01/16 includes pullbacks but ends with a strong bounce, suggesting momentum is positive but not parabolic.
- Likely RSI is in a mid-to-upper zone, meaning upside continuation is plausible but resistance is near, so chasing at 145.19 is less optimal than buying a pullback.
3) Mean reversion / regression to value
After a strong rebound from 140.5 to 145.2, the market often revisits the breakout shelf:
- Expected retest zone: 143.6–144.2.
Scenario planning (next 24 hours)
Base case (higher probability): mild pullback then continuation
- Price dips from ~145.2 into 144.2–143.6 (support retest / liquidity fill).
- Buyers defend that zone.
- Price attempts to re-break 145.3–146.8.
- If 146.8 breaks, next magnet is 148.2.
Alternate bearish case (invalidation): bounce fails
- Failure to hold 142.0–142.4 increases odds of revisiting 141.0.
- A clean break below 141.0 would likely extend to 139–137 (back into prior daily range). This is the key risk point.
Net 24h directional bias: Up / slightly bullish, but expect intraday dip first.
Trade decision (tactical)
Given:
- Daily uptrend from Dec base
- Strong intraday reversal from 140.5 to 145.2
- Overhead resistance around 146–147 likely to be tested
I prefer Buy (Long) but not at market; optimal is a pullback entry into support.
Optimal open (limit buy)
- Open Price (Buy): 144.10
- Rationale: sits in the likely retest shelf (143.6–144.2), closer to support than current price, improving reward/risk.
Take-profit / close
- Close Price (Take Profit): 147.90
- Rationale: below the 148.2 swing high (front-running liquidity), aligned with expected 24h range extension if resistance breaks.
(Risk note for execution: structural invalidation is below ~141.0; if you use a stop, that’s the level the chart most clearly defines.)