Full Technical Analysis of Stacks (STX) as of 2025-07-04

Step 1: Price Action and Trend Analysis

Macro Context (3-Month Window)

• Historical Range: The chart shows STX has moved from a low near $0.52 (early April) to a multi-month high just above $1.04 (early May), followed by a drawn-out, persistent downtrend. The current price, $0.643, is back near mid-June lows.
• Intermediate Trend: From late May, price has generally trended downward, with bounce attempts in late June and early July failing to breach the $0.71 resistance zone.

Micro Structure (Last 2 Weeks)

• June 24-25: Post bounce, spike to $0.73 met with heavy selling and rising volume (distribution), then rejection.
• June 28-July 4: Several failed attempts at $0.70+ and a sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
• Current trading zone: Forming a base between $0.64 support and minor resistance at $0.67, with declining intraday volatility but increased volume spikes at local lows (possible stop-runs or accumulation).

Step 2: Volume and Volatility Analysis

• Volume Profile: Notable surge in volume on breakdown days (e.g., June 6, 25, July 4 intraday), indicating strong interest at capitulation zones. Decreasing volume on small bounces suggests weak buyer interest, possible exhaustion.
• Volatility: Current ATR (Average True Range) over past week is compressing, indicating an upcoming larger move. Abrupt volume with failed rallies points to increasing odds of a major breakout or breakdown.

Step 3: Candlestick and Price Pattern Recognition

• Recent Candles: Last 24-hour candle: large upper wicks into $0.67 zone, closes back below $0.65—strong supply overhead.
• Intraday: Several hourly candles with long lower shadows near $0.64; however, little follow-through buying. The price is currently sitting near the session low ($0.6434192), indicating sellers remain in control.
• Pattern: Descending triangle structure evident since June 25, with horizontal support at $0.64 and falling highs from $0.73 → $0.70 → $0.67. Descending triangles at the end of a downtrend often portend another leg lower.

Step 4: Moving Averages

• Short-Term (EMA 20/50): Both declining, with prices consistently trading below the 20-period EMA since June 25 and below the 50-period EMA since June 6. The EMAs themselves are sloping downwards, indicating bearish momentum.
• Longer-Term (SMA 100/200, estimated): Likely all above the current price, further confirming the bearish structure.

Step 5: Momentum and Oscillators

• RSI (14): Estimated below 40 for most of the last two weeks, indicating persistent bearish momentum. Not yet in oversold territory (<30), so more downside likely.
• MACD: Both the fast and slow lines remain below zero with no visible bullish crossover forming; histogram indicates ongoing negative momentum.

Step 6: Support and Resistance Levels

• Immediate Resistance: $0.66 (recent micro highs), then $0.67–$0.68 (descending triangle resistance, prior breakdown zone, EMA cluster).
• Immediate Support: $0.64 (local base), then $0.62 (last bounce), and $0.60 (major low from June 22, psychological support). Below that, $0.58 and $0.55 (April lows) are in play.

Step 7: Order Flow and Liquidity Pockets

• Stop-Loss Proximity: Repeated tests and rebounds from $0.64 suggest that stops are clustered just below this level; a decisive hourly close below $0.64 likely triggers a cascade of stop-losses, leading to quick movement toward $0.62 or even $0.60.

Step 8: Fibonacci Retracements & Measured Moves

• Using the recent swing from $0.75 (June 3) to $0.64 (current):
  • 0% = $0.64; 100% = $0.75
  • Price has already breached the 0.618 retrace at $0.67 and the 0.786 at $0.656. Next logical target is the swing low and an expansion to the $0.60 region on breakdown.
• Descending Triangle Measured Move: Height ($0.67-$0.64 = $0.03) projected from breakdown at $0.64 suggests $0.61 as an initial target.

Step 9: Sentiment and Market Structure

• Market Sentiment: Sellers in control, failed bullish engulfing attempts, exhaustion by bulls.
• Liquidity/VIX Equivalent (Crypto Market): Higher volatility during breakdowns reinforces the bear narrative.

Step 10: Synthesis and Probability-Weighted Scenario

• Summary:
  • Persistent lower highs and failure to reclaim $0.67 resistance.
  • High-probability breakdown scenario below $0.64 with likely swift move toward $0.60–$0.61 support due to clustered stop-losses.
  • Volume and volatility setups favor a continuation of the current downtrend.
  • No reversal patterns, no active bullish divergences, and multi-timeframe alignment of bearish technicals.

Final Conclusion

• Probability of downward break: >70%. Favor a short position with a breakdown trigger.
• Entry: Ideally enter on a retest of $0.645–$0.65, but breakout traders can enter on the first hourly close below $0.64.
• Target: $0.60–$0.61
• Stop-Loss (not required, but for discipline): Above $0.67 (recent breakdown zone/high of the day).

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Predicted Price Movement for the Next 24 Hours

Given the descending triangle, failed bounces, persistent supply, and breakdown setup, expect Stacks (STX) to continue lower. A break below $0.64 will accelerate sell pressure, pushing STX quickly toward $0.61–$0.60. Minor bounces are likely to be sold.

Strategy: Open short (Sell), target $0.605

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