Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Sui (SUI) for 24-Hour Price Prediction

Step 1: Trend Analysis (Daily and Intraday)

• Medium-term Trend (Past 3 months): Since late February, SUI showed a sharp recovery from the $2.1–$2.4 range, establishing strong bullish momentum in late April, consolidating, and then pushing higher in early May. Price action recently topped around $4.26, before retracing to the $3.55–$3.95 area. This large upswing, followed by strong volatility and rapid retracement, suggests increased trading activity and possible profit-taking.
• Recent Trend: Most recently, after a failed breakout above $4.20, SUI moved lower to $3.58, and the day’s price action (May 24) shows a sideways choppy environment ($3.62–$3.69). The market is testing for support after the sharp May 22-23 sell-off.

Step 2: Price Patterns and Candlestick Analysis

• Daily Candlesticks: Recent daily candles (May 21–24) show tall upper wicks and bearish closes, particularly on May 22–23, indicating rejection above $3.93–$4.19 and significant selling pressure. Today’s (May 24) candle is a small-bodied doji/spinning top near $3.63, denoting indecision and possible market equilibrium.
• Intraday (Hourly): Prices remain tightly coiled with low volatility ($3.62–$3.68), building a base around $3.62, which was previous resistance (now acting as support). This is a classic resetting pattern after a directional move.

Step 3: Volume Analysis

• Volume Climax: May 22–24 saw huge spikes in volume during the rapid decline (especially May 23 at >2.35B), paired with the largest red days since April, indicating institutional/professional selling and perhaps liquidation of speculative long positions.
• Current Volume (Intraday): The latest hourly bars report low volume, showing reduced trading activity. This supports the case that the aggressive sellers are exhausted, and buyers may start stepping back in.

Step 4: Moving Averages

• Short-term MAs: The 20-period SMA (approx daily, from the $3.7–$3.9 region) is being tested. On the 4-hour window, the price is presently at or just below this average, which historically acts as dynamic support after strong pullbacks.
• Long-term MAs: The 50/100-period averages are still below at $3.1–$3.2, confirming the larger uptrend remains intact.

Step 5: Momentum Oscillators (RSI, MACD, Stochastics)

• Daily RSI: Estimated at ~42–48 (given the sharp retrace from overbought to neutral), points to mean-reverting conditions and stronger probability of a bounce than further oversold moves.
• MACD: Bearish crossover is present but histogram is flattening, indicating the worst of the down-move is subsiding.
• Stochastics: Likely in the oversold or lower-neutral territory, suggesting room for upside correction.

Step 6: Volatility and Range Expansion

• The ATR and recent intraday swings (e.g., 24-hr range of $3.57–$3.68) have compressed post-selloff, indicating a volatility contraction phase that often precedes a directional breakout.

Step 7: Support/Resistance Mapping

• Immediate Support: $3.57–$3.62 (recent hourly bases, prior daily resistance)
• Stronger Support: $3.33–$3.42 (consolidation base, coincident with early May breakout area)
• Immediate Resistance: $3.69–$3.77 (near-term upper wicks)
• Major Resistance: $3.93–$4.00 (failed breakout region, May 21–22 highs)

Step 8: Fibonacci Retracement Analysis (Recent Swing: $4.26 high to $3.57 low)

• 38.2% Retrace: $3.84
• 50% Retrace: $3.91
• Resistance aligns to these retracement bands, reinforcing the notion of a layered supply zone above current price.

Step 9: Order Flow & Market Psychology

• The sharp drop and stabilization at prior resistance, paired with reduced volume and doji-like price action, hints at classic market digestion—the selling wave is likely finished, and liquidity is now balanced.
• With the broader uptrend still-supported by higher-timeframe MAs and with momentum oscillators resetting from overbought, the probability favors a relief rally over a continuation lower in the immediate short-term.

Step 10: Sentiment and Intermarket Comparisons

• Historical parallels suggest that such high-volume shakeouts are often followed by dead-cat bounces or even V-shaped recoveries in bullish macro contexts. SUI remains a top performer YTD, so dip-buyers may step in aggressively.

Step 11: Scenario Planning and Risk Management

• Bullish Scenario: Buy pressure re-emerges, driving SUI toward $3.77, and possibly $3.91. Volume increases on green candles will be confirming evidence.
• Bearish Scenario: If $3.57 fails, a test of $3.42–$3.33 is possible—but most indicators now point to sellers being exhausted in the short-term.

Final Synthesis

Given the technical exhaustion of selling, the resetting of short/medium-term momentum oscillators, and stabilization around a key support after a panic sell-off with heavy volume, the probability of a short-term bullish mean-reversion bounce is above average.

Recommendation: Buy (Long Position)

• Open Price: Ideally, time the entry near the most recent congestion/support boundary, around $3.62 (current price $3.63, so tiny difference).
• Close Price: Target the first upper resistance and partial retracement at $3.77 (upper wick congestion of today and prior resistance; optional: trail up to $3.91 if momentum confirms, but primary conservative target is $3.77). Risk management suggests a stop loss below $3.57 (the major support).

Summary Table

Action	Open Price	Target (Take Profit)	Stop Loss
Buy	$3.62	$3.77	$3.57

Trade with discipline and adjust stops if $3.57 is breached with renewed volume to signal further downside risk.