Full Technical Analysis for Sui (SUI) as of May 26, 2025

1. Price & Volume Structure (Daily & Intraday)

• Current Price: $3.534
• Recent Daily Trend: Since mid-April, SUI rallied from the $2.11 region up to a peak near $4.26 (May 8-12), followed by volatile pullbacks and attempts to consolidate above $3.4-$3.5.
• Intraday View: Recent hours show mild choppiness, with price action meandering between $3.53 and $3.64, refusing to break higher but not collapsing either. Dips have been shallow and bought, but upside conviction appears limited.
• Volume Observations: Volume peaked dramatically on upward thrusts (notably May 8-12 and May 22-23), and declined during sideways chop, implying exhaustion after aggressive upside runs.

2. Trend Analysis - Moving Averages

• Short-term SMA/EMA (14, 20): 4h moving averages are caught between $3.58 (20 EMA) and $3.62 (50 SMA). SUI is currently trading below both. This hints at short-term trend reversal, suggesting bears are in modest control for now.
• Medium-term SMA (50, 100): 1D 50 SMA is near $3.40, and 100 SMA is around $3.08. The current price is above longer-term trend support, suggesting secular uptrend is intact, but short-term vulnerable.

3. Oscillator Review (RSI, Stoch, MACD)

• RSI (14D): Hovering around 45-50 – neutral to slightly bearish, no overbought/oversold signal.
• Stochastic Oscillator: On daily, just below mid-line, showing potential for further slip but not highly stretched.
• MACD: Daily MACD line crossed below signal line recently, histogram negative and expanding, supporting bearish momentum build-up.

4. Support and Resistance Zones

• Nearest Resistance: $3.58–$3.62 (recent swing highs, 20EMA/50SMA); then $3.70 (swing pivot); and $3.95–$4.10 (recent fail point).
• Nearest Support: $3.51–$3.48 (intraday lows today/yesterday); then $3.35 (May 4–7 support-cell); then $3.20 and $3.00 (critical daily levels).
• Liquidity Pockets: Highest historical volume at $3.50 and $3.30 areas, implying heavy interest (potential magnet areas).

5. Chart Patterns & Price Structures

• Rising Wedge: Since the May 9 peak, SUI carved a possible rising wedge that broke down after failing to make new highs above $4.20. This is inherently bearish, with potential for further measured move to the downside.
• Bearish Engulfing Pattern: Large May 23 candle engulfed previous upward momentum, followed by failed recovery. Bearish implication, often marks local tops.
• Recent Consolidation: Price bounced within $3.50-$3.65 for ~36 hours, but has repeatedly failed to push above $3.62–$3.65 despite multiple intraday attempts.

6. Volatility & Momentum

• Bollinger Bands (4H): Price pressed on the lower band during the last few hours, indicating increased downside volatility. Bands are starting to expand, suggesting bigger move is developing after the low-volatility coil.
• ATR (Average True Range): ATR has picked up post-May 23, indicating expansion phase (usually directional once triggered).

7. Volume Profile & Orderflow

• Recent Heavy Sells: 24hr volume sharply increased on May 23 as price dumped from $3.93 to $3.57. Current low volume bounce lacks follow-through, implying rallies are being sold.
• Delta Analysis (Implied): Aggressive selling near $3.60-$3.65, weak buy pressure on bounces.

8. Fibonacci Retracements

• Key Retracement Levels:
  • 38.2% retrace from low ($2.11 – May) to high ($4.26) = $3.53 (current price, acting as support)
  • 50% retrace = $3.18
  • 61.8% retrace = $2.85 SUI is clinging to the 38.2% level but looks vulnerable for further retrace to 50% if $3.50 gives.

9. Sentiment & Momentum Factors

• Orderbook (Implied): Sell walls cluster near $3.60–$3.65, with bid support near $3.48–$3.50. Flow favors sellers for now.
• Momentum: Bearish follow-through likely on break of $3.50.

10. Historical Analogues/Price Cycles

• Previous Tops: SUI has a pattern of overshooting highs with failed follow-through, followed by sharp retracements (see Apr 24–28, May 8–13, May 22–24). These are often followed by days of mean reversion lower.
• Vulnerability Post-Spike: After each upside blowoff, SUI tends to revisit 50% of the advance before stabilizing.

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Synthesis and Prediction

• Multiple bearish signals align: failed rally attempts, breakdown from consolidation, bearish moving average crossovers, MACD/RSI momentum waning, pattern breakdown (wedge + engulfing), expanding volatility/bearish candle structures.
• Should $3.50 break with conviction, likely downside target is $3.35 (high volume node/support) and then $3.20 (Fibonacci/structural).
• LOW PROBABILITY of immediate sharp recovery toward $3.60–3.70 unless supported by unusually strong volume reversal.
• Risk/reward for a short is optimal near current price, stop above $3.62 (recent resistance cluster).

Conclusion

The path of least resistance for SUI over the next 24 hours is mildly lower, with risk of accelerated selling if $3.50 breaks. A short position is technically favored for a move to the $3.35–$3.20 region as exhaustion and bearish signals gather.

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ACTION: SELL (Short Position)

• Open: $3.53–3.54 (market/limit order as close to current as possible)
• Target: $3.35 (take profit)
• Invalidation/Stop: $3.62 (above near-term resistance)

Risk/Reward: Attractive, especially given tight resistance area above and well-defined supports below.