1. Step-by-Step Technical Analysis Process

A. Trend Analysis

• Macro Trend (3 Months): From early March, SUI maintained a sideways to slightly bullish trend between $2.00 – $2.4, breaking out extremely strongly in late April, culminating in a parabolic rally to $4.25 (high on May 12–13). Since then, SUI peaked, formed a lower high at $4.08 (May 21–22), and entered a consistent downward correction, now at $3.27.
• Short-Term Trend (Last 2 Weeks): The May 23 tumble (from $3.88 to $3.57, high volume) amplified selling pressure. The past week displays a pattern of lower highs and lower lows: after reaching $3.68 (May 27) and $3.60 (May 28), price broke down to $3.19 (May 30) and recovered slightly to $3.27, showing strong intraday volatility but maintaining a bearish tilt.

B. Candlestick Patterns

• The May 30 session shows a full-bodied bearish candle ($3.52 open, $3.19 close), breaching recent support levels. Today’s candle opened with a long lower wick (down to $3.06 intraday), but closed much higher ($3.27). This is slightly bullish (hammer), indicating buyers absorbing panic selling at $3.06 – $3.20, yet the session closes below key moving averages indicating underlying weakness.

C. Moving Averages

• 20-Period SMA/EMA (Estimated): Around $3.50–$3.55 based on price clustering. Current price is well below the 20-period average = bearish confirmation.
• 50-Period SMA: Likely around $3.65. Recent price fails to reclaim this average during attempted rebounds = momentum remains negative.
• 10-Period Intraday (Hourly): SUI oscillated between $3.08–$3.18, then rallied, but the bounce is losing momentum below $3.30–$3.35 (previous support now resistance).

D. Support and Resistance

• Immediate Resistance: $3.30–$3.35 zone (structure and moving averages).
• Major Resistance: $3.50–$3.55 (former breakdown area, also matches cluster of SMA).
• Immediate Support: $3.20 (today’s bounce area); below, $3.06 (session’s low).

E. Volume/Order Flow Analysis

• Volume Spike on Down Moves: The sharp volume on May 30–31’s flush and prior May 23 down candle implies coordinated selling (institutional). Reduced volume on rebounds suggests buyers are not aggressive at current levels.
• Liquidity: Liquidity thinned on the recent bounce, making the move susceptible to further downside. Persistent supply above $3.27 (as seen intraday) acts as a ceiling.

F. Oscillators (RSI, Stochastic, MACD - Estimate by Price Action)

• RSI (Estimated): After sustained downtrend and two strong red candles, likely in the 35–40 range (mild oversold, but room for further fall).
• MACD Histogram: Negative and declining, no sign of upward reversal. Downward momentum persisting.
• Stochastic: Would be rising from oversold, but the turn is not confirmed given the weak bullish response.

G. Chart Patterns

• Bear Flag: The post-May-23 price structure, followed by a steep drop May-30 forms a classic bear flag with a new breakdown – statistically favors further downside continuation.
• Hammer (Intraday Reversal): The hammer-like bounce today failed to reclaim resistance; failed rally attempts often precede new selling waves.

H. Price Action and Market Structure

• Price forms lower highs/lows; failed rallies are sold into, and immediate bounces are weak – all bearish structure.
• Attempts to break above $3.30 are capped quickly; bulls unable to generate upward momentum.

I. Fibonacci Retracements (Rough, on Recent Swing)

• Key swing: $4.12 (May high) to $3.06 (today’s low): 0.382 retrace ≈ $3.46, 0.5 = $3.59, 0.618= $3.72. Current levels have not reclaimed even the 0.236 retrace, signifying extreme weakness and unexhausted correction.

J. Volatility Indicators

• Price ranges have expanded the past two days, as evident from the $3.54 → $3.06 move and sharp pop toward $3.27. High volatility after distribution phases usually accompanies capitulation moves, suggesting further heavy volatility if $3.20 is broken.

K. Sentiment/Order Book Dynamics (via Price-Volume Observation)

• The presence of larger red volume during selloffs and lack of large buying tails suggests sentiment is still negative. Flat to downward bias likely to persist unless strong buyers emerge above $3.35–$3.40 zone.

L. Time-of-Day/Historic Price Behavior (Microstructure)

• End-of-session covering and stabilization have not produced a strong bounce into the close—often a bad omen for next-session opens, especially in crypto which trades 24/7.

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2. Synthesis & Next 24-Hour Price Prediction

Given the relentless selling pressure, lack of bullish momentum, rejection at key moving averages, and incomplete retracement of the $4+ rally, SUI appears poised for further downside:

• If $3.20 fails, a move toward $3.06 (session's low) and possibly $2.95 (psychological round number, previous consolidation low from late May) comes into play.
• Short-term bounces to $3.30–$3.35 are unlikely to hold, with sellers using those levels to re-enter short positions.
• Any sustained close above $3.40 would invalidate the short thesis for now.

Overall Expected Move (next 24 hours): High probability for at least a retest of $3.06, with possible overshoot toward $3.00. Best risk/reward favors shorting recoveries vs. chasing breakdowns, targeting a sequence of lower support tests.

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3. Position Recommendation

Trade: Sell/Short Open Price: Optimal re-entry: $3.28–$3.30 zone (retest of broken support/intraday resistance) Take Profit/Close: $3.07 (test/flush of daily lows, close to today's panic low)

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Final Combined Analysis

• Downtrend structure persists, failed bounce attempts, and volume analysis all point toward further downside.
• Risk of a brief bounce exists, but optimal entry for a short position is near current levels ($3.28–$3.30), with a clear exit strategy on reclaim of $3.40.
• Traders should be alert for high volatility and use stop-losses just above $3.40 to control risk.