Step-by-Step Technical Analysis of Sui (SUI)

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1. Trend Analysis

Long-Term Daily Context:

• From late March to early May, SUI experienced a significant rally, moving from a close near $2.25 up to an all-time closing high at $4.12 (May 10th). This was a 75%+ gain, followed by consolidation and a sharp correction.
• From mid-May to mid-June, the trend reversed, resulting in a 50% drawdown from the $4.12 highs to a recent low at $2.83 (June 17th). This is a classic high-volatility boom-and-correction pattern.
• The present price at $2.76 is near local support, following another leg down after a failed attempt to reclaim $3.00.

Short-Term Context

• The latest hourlies show declining volatility in the $2.76 range after recent support tests at $2.66–2.69. There's heavy supply evident above $2.83 and resistance at ~$2.85.
• There was notable weakness in price reaction after each mini-bounce, suggesting sellers are still dominant intraday.

2. Support & Resistance

• Support Levels:
  • $2.66–2.69: Local intra-hour support (multiple rejections in June 20 17:00–20:00 zone and session low)
  • $2.61–2.66: Older support from early April breakout
  • $2.48: Higher timeframe area (March/April base before the large uptrend)
• Resistance Levels:
  • $2.80–2.85: Repeated highs, failed attempts to break higher on June 20
  • $2.92–3.00: Former breakdown zone and psychological round number

3. Volume Profile

• Volume spikes coincide with market tops (May 8–12, $4.02–4.12) and bottom explorations (May 30–June 14, falling from $3.50 to $2.82/$2.83).
• Recent action shows declining buying volume during intraday bounces, with some absorption near $2.70–2.73—suggesting minor buying interest but weak conviction from bulls.

4. Volatility / Momentum Indicators

• ATR (Average True Range): Recent days show moderate-to-high ATR values, with a reduction over the last 15 sessions, indicating smaller ranges and potential for a volatility squeeze.
• RSI: Based on the price action, RSI is likely in the 35–40 range (mildly oversold, but not yet into classic reversal territory).
• MACD: MACD histogram would be negative and starting to flatten, suggesting bearish momentum is slowing but not reversed.

5. Chart Pattern Recognition

• Descending Channel: Since the May high, price action fits into a steeper descending channel (lower highs, lower lows), with immediate resistance along the channel's upper boundary at ~$2.84–2.87.
• Bear Flag: The short-term bounce from $2.83 up to $2.84–2.85 and subsequent failures fit a bear flag structure; resolution typically comes with continuation downward.

6. Moving Averages (EMA/SMA)

• Short-Term (20/50 EMA/SMA): On daily, price remains below both 20 and 50 EMAs, reinforcing downward bias. Intraday, recent upswings stall at these moving averages.
• Long-Term (200 EMA/SMA): Well above current price; significant trend reversal will need a close above the $3.20 area.

7. Market Structure/Order Flow

• Liquidity Sweeps: Multiple intraday wicks down near $2.66–2.69, but fast rejections suggest some liquidity pools sitting below current market; shorts may be targeting these stops for a flush.
• Order Flow: Limited buy-side force after each bounce; sellers are quick to step in near resistance.

8. Fibonacci Retracement

• Pulling Fibo from the March swing low ($2.25) to May high ($4.12):
  • 61.8% retracement level is around $2.80 (current price tested and failed to reclaim)
  • 78.6% retracement is near $2.60 (next likely magnet if breakdown occurs)
  • Suggests temporary support at $2.80 may not hold and a move to $2.60 is probable.

9. Sentiment Analysis

• No sharp reversal patterns, v-shaped recoveries, or climactic sell volume; weak bounces, lower highs, and a sustained presence of sellers. Risk-off behavior prevails on SUI for now.

10. Synthesized Forecast & Trading Plan

• The overall technical posture is bearish with a high probability of continued downside within the next 24 hours.
• Most techniques agree: downtrend established, failed bounces, weak momentum, churn at support, and lack of buyer initiative. A bear flag under resistance typically resolves downward, and with volatility compressing, a sharp move could occur soon.
• Optimal risk/reward for a fresh entry is on a small bounce to resistance (~$2.78–2.79), with a target at the swing support levels ($2.67, then extended to $2.61 if breakdown accelerates).
• Stops should be above $2.85, beyond immediate resistance.

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CONCLUSION: Short (Sell) Bias

• All major methods align to favor a SELL here. Look to short on minor price recoveries toward $2.78–2.79. Target $2.67 for TP1 (short-term support flush), extend to $2.61 for a larger move. Place protective stop above $2.85.

Risk note: If price reclaims $2.85 with momentum and volume, the short thesis is voided for now.

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