1. Trend Analysis (Price Action)

• Long-term trend (last 60 days): SUI experienced a dramatic rally from late April (2.66 → 4.12) followed by a classic distribution and topping pattern (peaks on 5/10, 5/11, 5/12; lower highs after May 13) with a steep downtrend and heavy volatility.
• Medium-term trend (last 1 month): Persistent lower highs and lower lows; after a sharp drop in late May/early June (3.6 → 2.95), recovery attempts consistently sold off, confirming bearish structure.
• Short-term trend (last 7 days): False breakout on June 23 towards 2.85, then fade. Intraday candles show tight consolidation and decreasing volatility, suggesting a potential volatility expansion phase is ahead.

2. Pattern Recognition & Support/Resistance

• Key Resistance: 2.83–2.85 (multiple failed breakouts), then 2.93–2.97 (prior support-turned-resistance from June 14–16), and major resistance at 3.15–3.22 (former range floor in early June).
• Key Support: 2.72 (minor), 2.56–2.58 (June 21 reaction low), and 2.45 (June 22 pivot low, highest recent volume accumulation below here = demand zone).
• Recent rejection: SUI failed to sustain above 2.83 in the past 24 hours and is currently trading at 2.779, showing weakness despite brief intraday upticks.

3. Volume Analysis

• Volume declining over last 24–48 hours following sharp spike on June 23. This is typical in the late stages of a correction, but the lack of large green volume bars suggests little bullish conviction on the bounce. Historical volume at these prices (June 22) was very high, indicating potential for brief support but overall suggests that sellers are taking profits into these up moves.

4. Moving Averages

• 20-period SMA/EMA: SUI is currently hugging below what would be an approximate 20-period EMA (given trailing close/opens on 4-hourly and daily). Recent attempts to reclaim this moving average have failed, indicating that the short-term trend is down.
• 50-period SMA: SUI is also below the likely 50-period SMA (projected from recent close/opens), a classic signal of bearish momentum.

5. Momentum Oscillators

• RSI (estimated): Given recent price volatility and failed breakouts, RSI is likely hovering in the 40–45 range; this is weak neutral, consistent with trend continuation to the downside if further negative price action emerges.
• MACD (projected): MACD would still be negative, possibly flattening but with no clear sign of reversal, suggesting bear control remains.

6. Volatility & Bollinger Bands

• Bollinger Bands: Recent tight price action (intraday) indicates BB width compression. BB squeezes usually precede expansions, and given the context (bearish backdrop & failed rallies), the path of least resistance is down.

7. Order Flow and Market Structure

• Failed rallies: Each uptick toward 2.83–2.85 gets sold into, and support at 2.78–2.80 is eroding. Below current price, there is a liquidity pocket at 2.72 (next probable downside target), followed by significant demand at 2.55.
• Volume clusters: High volume, low price progress above 2.85 = supply zone, adding to downside risk if bulls can't reclaim that level quickly.

8. Fibonacci Retracement

• Last major leg: 2.45 low (June 22) → 2.85 high (June 24): 38.2% retrace = ~2.70, 61.8% retrace = ~2.62. Expect fast drop to 2.72 then possible extension toward 2.60 if selling accelerates.

9. Sentiment & Context

• Momentum shift: The heavy liquidation event of June 22–23 (high volume, price flush) usually leads to dead-cat bounces, not trend reversals unless confirmed by high-volume follow-through, which is lacking.
• No reversal pattern: No double-bottom or bullish engulfing on daily/4h. Intraday candles are all lower highs and weak closes, confirming lack of commitment from buyers.
• Market context: SUI is underperforming relative to broader crypto momentum shifts (not shown in data, but consistent with general market behavior near cycle lows).

10. Risk Management/Trade Planning

• Short entry risk: Opening a short around 2.78–2.79 offers defined risk above 2.85 (recent supply zone, plenty of liquidity to act as stop).
• Profit targets: Near-term, first target 2.72 (minor support), extension to 2.56 (orders could trail stop if breakdown continues).

11. Confluence & Conclusion

• Multiple indicators (trend, volume, resistance, oscillator weakness, failed breakouts) all signal the path of least resistance is lower. SUI is still in a downtrend after a classic distribution and retest of the breakdown zone; attempts to reclaim lost levels have failed. Pressures from failed rallies and heavy past volume above add further selling bias.

Probability favours a move down toward 2.72 and potentially further to 2.56 in the next 24 hours. Therefore, the optimal trade is a short (Sell) position, opened near 2.78–2.79 (current price), with a first target at 2.72 (likely fillable in hours), and an extension toward 2.56 if breakdown momentum continues.

Final Decision: Sell (Short Position)

Open at: 2.78 Target: 2.72 (primary), 2.56 (secondary). Tight stop above 2.85 to manage risk if a squeeze occurs.