Detailed Technical Analysis of Sui (SUI): Short-term Outlook and Trade Setup

1. High-Level Market Summary

• Current SUI Price: $2.6405 (as of 2025-06-26 21:00 UTC)
• Recent Daily Action: Intraday latest print is a close at $2.6405, showing stabilization after a high-volatility period over the past two days.

2. Trend Analysis

A. Long-term Trend (3-month Perspective)

• From 2025-03-29 to 2025-05-09, SUI experienced a significant uptrend, doubling from near $2.3 to above $4.0, peaking at $4.26 (05/12), followed by a rounded top and subsequent correction.
• Structure: The uptrend was sharply broken after May 12th, with several failed attempts at higher highs, defining a bearish reversal structure. Since then, a series of lower highs and lower lows confirms a downtrend.

B. Medium-term Trend (30-day Perspective)

• Since May 22nd, SUI has fallen from highs above $3.87 to $2.56 (06/21 intraday low), representing a sustained bearish move (~33% drop).
• Failed bounces near $3.25 (early June) and $2.90 (mid-June), now followed by deeper lows.
• Price has not reclaimed its 30-day moving average, with each bounce sold.

C. Short-term/Intraday Trend (Last 48h)

• Heavy selling visible from $2.84 (06/23) to $2.65 (06/26), with sharp drops on higher volume and only modest rebounds.
• Today’s intraday range: $2.59–$2.79, close at $2.64 (mid-range). The failure to reclaim the $2.70–$2.75 resistance on multiple recent hourly candles signals continued supply pressure.

3. Key Support and Resistance Levels

• Immediate Resistance: $2.71/2.73 (yesterday’s high and post-breakdown pivot zone); $2.84 (06/23 high and breakdown point).
• Immediate Support: $2.59 (today’s intraday low); $2.56 (multi-week low on 06/21); $2.45 (06/22 support/tested).
• If $2.56 breaks, $2.30 (March/April base) is the next major support.

4. Volume & Volatility

• Volume spike detected during the most recent sell-off period (06/23 & 06/24), highlighting heightened bear dominance and distribution events.
• Intraday volatility remains elevated—the last 24 hours saw a $0.20 (7%) swing, much wider than typical range last month.

5. Candlestick & Chart Patterns

• Last 3 daily candles: Bearish engulfing pattern (06/24), followed by a large red candle (06/25), then today’s indecisive, low-volume candle with extended wicks (signs of a pause, not reversal).
• Multiple failed attempts to base above $2.70–$2.73 imply supply is active at these levels.
• No strong reversal or bottoming formation is visible: no hammer, no bullish engulf, no significant volume flush.

6. Technical Indicators

A. Moving Averages (MA)

• 10/20 EMA (Estimated):
  • Both are trending downward, with prices below both (bearish alignment).
• 50-day SMA (Estimated):
  • Currently above price, reinforcing resistance.

B. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

• Recent price action suggests RSI has entered the 30–40 zone (oversold, but not extreme), consistent with capitulation risk but still lacking signs of bullish divergence.
• No signal of reversal; oversold can stay oversold in strong trends.

C. MACD

• Bearish cross confirmed in mid-June, with increasing negative histogram. No signal line cross, momentum remains negative.

D. Bollinger Bands

• Price hugging or breaking the lower band; volatility spike, no mean reversion yet. Suggests further continuation or, at most, a weak dead-cat bounce.

E. Fibonacci Retracement

• From $4.25 (recent high) to $2.56 (recent low):
  • 23.6%: ~$2.97
  • 38.2%: ~$3.18
  • 50%: ~$3.405
• Price has not achieved a substantial retracement, failing at each minor bounce, showing weakness.
• $2.73–$2.84 resistance aligns with prior Fibonacci cluster and breakdown.

7. Other Professional Techniques

A. Order Flow & Volume Analysis

• No significant buy walls at support; sell-side volume spikes during breakdowns suggest institutional capitulation or stop-loss orders.

B. Elliott Wave

• Recent moves indicate SUI is in a corrective wave, likely in a C-leg of an ABC decline since the May high. C-waves tend to be sharp, matching the observed down leg. Target projection for C-wave: $2.30–$2.40 if $2.56 breaks.

C. Trendlines & Channels

• Descending channel clearly established; price at/near the bottom, but not showing any breakout.

D. Price Action Signal

• Lower highs and lower lows; rejection at prior supports flipped to resistance, ongoing supply dominance.

8. Sentiment & Probabilistic Note

• Market sentiment: Bearish with no current evidence of strong buyers stepping in.
• Probability of continued decline: High; probability of a meaningful reversal in 24h: Low, barring sudden exogenous catalyst.

9. Composite View & 24h Price Prediction

• Most signs point to continued pressure on support, likely testing or breaking $2.59, retesting $2.56. If panic persists, a spike through to $2.45–$2.48 is probable before any stabilization attempt can begin.
• Limited upside: Even in case of a short squeeze/rebound, rally likely capped near $2.73–$2.75 (resistance)

10. Execution Plan

- Trade Direction: Sell (Short Position)

- Entry Plan: Sell on any bounce into $2.66–$2.68, maximizing reward-to-risk, as minor rebounds have topped in that zone recently.

- Stop Loss: Consider covering on a strong hourly close above $2.76 (recent micro-resistance)

- Target: Exit near $2.48; partial cover at $2.56 in case of initial bounce off that level.

11. Summary Table

Indicator	Signal
Trend	Bearish
Support	$2.59/$2.56
Resistance	$2.73
Volume/Flow	Bearish
Momentum	Negative
Oscillators	Weak
Order Flow	Bearish

CONCLUSION: SELL (SHORT POSITION)

• Given the clear, confirmed downtrend, repeated failures to reclaim any former support (now resistance), elevated selling volume, and unresolved downside momentum, the next 24h favor another leg lower. Selling short on a modest bounce provides optimal reward-to-risk.

Optimal Sell Price: $2.66 (just below last failed intraday resistance)
Take Profit Price: $2.48 (near next major support, below likely liquidation trigger zone)
Stop Loss (not required but suggested): Cover above $2.76 to avoid short squeeze risk.

---

Prediction: SUI will likely test and potentially break $2.56 support in the coming 24h. Minor bounces should be sold.