Exhaustive Technical Analysis of Sui (SUI) as of 2025-07-04 21:00 UTC

1. Price Action & Trend Analysis

• Long-Term (last 3 months): SUI has demonstrated strong volatility. After a significant bull run through April into early May, topping near $4.25, the price trended down and saw persistent lower highs and lower lows throughout late May and most of June. This signals that the longer-term trend is still downward.
• Medium-Term (last month): After touching a local bottom near $2.45 mid-June, SUI has recovered somewhat, forming a double-bottom structure with a notable bounce toward $3.03–$3.08. However, after hitting resistance at $3.08 on July 3rd, the price has started to retrace.
• Short-Term (past week): The price retraced from $3.08 to $2.84. The intraday chart shows a series of lower highs (from $3.07 to $2.98 to $2.93) and successively lower closes, suggesting near-term bearish pressure.

2. Support & Resistance Levels

• Immediate Resistance: $2.90 (minor), $3.00–$3.08 (major)
• Immediate Support: $2.83 (current session low and key recent level), then $2.72, and $2.56
• Key Pivot: $2.85 is a key level; if it loses this, the path to $2.72 reopens quickly.

3. Volume & Order Flow

• Volume Spike Analysis: High volumes during reversals (see May 22/23, June 5/6, and June 23), often accompanied by sharp declines, point to strong distribution phases.
• Recent Sessions: Low volume on the recovery from $2.45 to $3.00+ indicates lackluster buying support. Today's low-volume dips below $2.85, and inability to reclaim $2.90 suggest sellers are in control.

4. Volatility Measures

• ATR (Average True Range): Recent daily ATR is approximately $0.13–$0.18, indicating wide price swings and attractive conditions for short-term traders, but also higher risk.

5. Candlestick Patterns

• July 3 & Early July 4: Shooting star and several bearish engulfings and long upper wicks near $3.07–$3.08 signal strong selling pressure at local highs.
• Current Pattern: Recent candles on the hourly show persistent failure to make new highs and minor bearish Marubozus.

6. Moving Averages

• 20-period EMA (Hourly): Price is below the short-term EMA ($2.89), acting as a dynamic resistance.
• 50-period MA (Daily): The price is still below its daily 50-MA, which is near $3.00, a confluence bearish sign.

7. Momentum Indicators

• RSI (14): Currently ~39 on hourly and dipping below 45 on daily. Shows building bearish momentum, but not yet oversold.
• MACD: Bearish cross on both daily and hourly. Histogram deepening to the downside, with no bullish divergence.

8. Fibonacci Retracement

• April High to June Low: Key retracement levels: 38.2% at $2.91, 50% at $3.08, 61.8% at $3.24. The price failed to reclaim both 38.2% and 50%, underscoring $2.91–$3.08 as strong resistance.

9. Chart Patterns & Structure

• Potential Bear Flag: The recovery from $2.45 to $3.08 in late June/early July forms a parallel channel, resembling a bear flag. The price is on the verge of breaking down from the lower channel boundary ($2.83–$2.85).
• Measured Move Target (Flag pole): If breakdown occurs, a retest of $2.72 or even $2.56 is probable.

10. Market Sentiment & Context

• No bullish catalyst; most recent rallies were sold into. The bounce off $2.45 is losing strength.
• Order Book Action: (Deducted from volumes and wicks) Sellers are absorbing any upticks, clear from the constant selling tail candles at highs.

11. Risk Assessment

• With hourly and daily signals aligning bearishly, and the breakdown of key pivots imminent, the risk favors further downside. However, volatility is high, and bear market rallies are possible, so tight risk controls are prudent.

Final Synthesis: Short-Term Bearish Bias

Prediction for next 24 hours: Price will likely retest $2.83 within hours. If $2.83 fails, the next targets are $2.72 (minor) and $2.56 (major). Minor bounces toward $2.88–$2.90 may offer attractive short re-entries. Only a sustained close above $2.93 would negate the near-term bearish setup.

Strategy: Sell/Short

• Entry: Sell between $2.87 and $2.88 on a failed bounce.
• Target: $2.72 (major bounce zone, possible take profit)
• Stop: If price closes above $2.93 (recent breakdown pivot, and above hourly EMA)

Position Sizing: Consider scaling in at $2.87–$2.89, risking up to $2.93 for a $0.16 stop with $0.16 profit potential—a 1:1 risk/reward, but extended targets could offer 1:2.

Summary: The weight of technical evidence (trend, volume, momentum, pattern, and volatility) supports a short/SELL here with an initial target at $2.72.