SUI 24h Price Action Analysis: Technical Deep Dive and Tactical Setup

1. Trend Analysis

• Medium-term Trend: Reviewing daily data from late April to now, SUI experienced a significant bottoming from the $3.5–3.6 area in late April/early May, a notable breakdown in the first third of June (down to sub-$3), then a sharp recovery starting end of June and particularly since July 9–10, where prices exploded from ~$2.85 to over $4.30 today. This creates a strong V-shape recovery.

• Short-term Trend: The past week (since ~July 21) has shown a sequence of strong green days, with closes significantly higher each session and only minor retracements. Today’s last close is a new monthly (and possibly all-time) high, indicating extremely bullish near-term momentum.

2. Volume and Momentum

• Volume: There has been a clear uptrend in volume accompanying the breakout from the $3.7–$3.9 resistance corridor over the past 5 sessions, matching classic technical criteria for a robust breakout.
• RSI: From the hourly action, sharp up candles and limited retracement imply the RSI on both hourly and 4h charts is deep into overbought territory (>80). Daily chart would likely show RSI approaching or exceeding 70, historically suggesting near-term caution for new buyers.
• MACD: Given the speed and extent of the move, MACD across hourly and daily would be demonstrating a strong bullish crossover with wide histogram expansion. This is a classic sign of sustained momentum but can often precede local tops as it becomes stretched.

3. Chart Patterns

• Structure: This latest run constitutes a breakout from a long accumulation range ($2.7–$3.9), with minimal horizontal resistance above current prices; all prior supply zones have been exhaustively cleared by high-volume moves. The price action since July 21 was a coiling/flag formation, resolving upwards, which generally forecasts measured-move follow-through (i.e., same propagation as the width of the range added to the breakout).
• Hourly Flags: There was a small intraday consolidation from 4.15 to 4.25, forming a bull flag, which has just resolved upward. Measured move suggests possible extension to 4.45–4.55 in the next session.

4. Fibonacci Retracement and Extensions

• From the June low ($2.45) to the recent high ($4.39):
  • 0.382 retracement: $3.58
  • 0.5 retracement: $3.42
  • 0.618 retracement: $3.27 These indicate increasingly strong support zones well below the current price. However, with current price far extended above even the 0.0 level, it is likely in the impulsive phase, targeting extensions:
  • 1.272 = $4.54
  • 1.618 = $4.85

5. Moving Averages

• Short-term MA (20-h, 50-h, 200-h EMA/SMA): All moving averages are stacked bullishly and well below price, indicating extremely stretched short-term conditions — typical for strong breakouts but increasing the risk of a sharp mean reversion if post-breakout momentum fails.
• 4h/daily MAs: Similar story—price is above all meaningful averages. No mechanical resistance from this angle.

6. Order Flow and Psychological Levels

• Current price behavior and order clustering often see round numbers as attractors or resistance—$4.50 and $5.00 will be psychological resistance, with $4.00 now a key support pivot.
• The last 24h shows strong absorption of supply above $4.20, with no significant pullback, indicative of institutional step-in or fomo-driven retail buying.

7. Elliott Wave Count

• Given the length and velocity of the run, we are likely in the impulsive "wave 3" of the rally starting from $2.45—a notoriously strong leg. However, either a small corrective wave is due soon, or we see a blowoff extension before retracing.

8. Volatility and Risk

• ATR (Average True Range) would be spiking, reflecting the high volatility. While this creates powerful trading opportunity, it also increases the whipsaw risk for late-longs.
• Despite the strong move, the lack of corrective depth is a yellow flag for short-term over-extension.

9. Sentiment and Market Context

• This move is likely accompanied by positive news or broader crypto market tailwinds, as such clean breakouts on volume rarely occur in isolation.

10. Trade Plan

• Bias: Strong buy momentum or possible last leg of blowoff top.
• Trade Type: Tactical long with a tight stop, or buy-the-dip bias.
• Entry: Not prudent to fomo at the current (overbought) tick—best to await a modest retrace or consolidation at prior high.

11. Key Levels

• Immediate support: $4.20 - $4.25
• Next resistance: $4.45 - $4.55
• Major support: $4.00

12. Summary

• Short-term: Extremely bullish momentum and breakout confirmation.
• Risk: Elevated (overbought; potential for sharp wicks), but trend strongly up.
• Trade plan: Buy on minor dip – ideally in the $4.23–$4.27 zone; take profit into $4.45–$4.53

Final Decision: BUY (Long position)

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Risk Notes: Keep stop-loss below $4.07 (recent minor swing low) to protect against a post-breakout bull trap. Do NOT short this market until evidence of distribution and breakdown appears. Swing players could pyramid further if price consolidates above $4.35, but initial move is buy-dip only.