Step-by-Step Analysis for Sui (SUI):

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1. Trend Analysis (Daily)

• Medium-Term Trend (May–July 2025): In late May–late June, SUI was in a significant downtrend, falling from $3.94 to a swing low of around $2.45 on June 22nd, as evident from the declining lows and lower highs.
• Late June/Early July Reversal: From late June onward, a strong uptrend commenced, taking price from $2.45 to a high of $4.43, followed by retest and consolidation above $4.00.
• Recent Price Action: Major bullish impulse from July 10 ($3.07 close) through July 14–15 ($4.09 close), reaching a peak near $4.43 on July 28, with recent pullback to $3.93 (current price). Marked by high volatility, as shown by large candles and heightened volumes around impulse moves.

2. Volume Analysis

• Volume Clusters: Highest daily volumes are associated with bullish days, e.g., July 14–15th, as well as on large green hourly candles (see July 26/28) post-$4.00 breakout. Accumulation appears to have occurred during June's sideways action ($2.60–$2.90), which served as a base for the subsequent rally.
• Volume on Recent Pullback: The retracement from $4.43 down to $3.93 is on relatively lighter volume compared to prior upthrusts, suggesting pullback is corrective rather than impulsive selling.

3. Chart Patterns (Candlestick, Support/Resistance)

• Breakout Confirmation: The $4.00 level was a major resistance (tested July 15–16, broken July 26–28). The sharp impulse and subsequent re-test is typical of post-breakout behavior (throwback).
• Ascending Structure: The higher-low sequence—from June 22, June 28, July 3, July 7, July 14—confirms underlying bullish sentiment, reinforced by upthrusts on strong volume.
• Current Support: Key immediate support is at $3.90–$3.93 (prior resistance), with next key levels at $3.78 (July 18 close) and $3.62 (July 7 high). Loss of $3.90 on hourly closes could signal deeper retracement.

4. Moving Averages Approach (Estimated)

• Short-Term (9/21 EMA): The moving averages would be positively sloped, with current price slightly extended above the 21-EMA (approx. $4.05), suggesting price is cooling after an overextension.
• Medium-Term (50/100 SMA): Both averages will be trailing below, supporting the overall uptrend.
• Price Reversion: Current pullback is likely retesting support, which is healthy in sustained bull runs.

5. Momentum Indicators (RSI/MACD)

• RSI: At previous highs (July 26–28), RSI would be in or near overbought (>70); current drop toward $3.93 likely brings RSI to more neutral (55–60) on hourly/daily, indicating less risk of an imminent severe sell-off, and establishing room for the next leg up.
• MACD: Still bullish, but showing decreasing momentum on the pullback; otherwise, no negative crossover yet, so trend bias remains up unless further downside develops.

6. Fibonacci Retracement

• Impulse Leg ($2.45 → $4.43): Key retracement levels:
  • 23.6%: ~$3.98
  • 38.2%: ~$3.71
  • 50.0%: ~$3.44
  • 61.8%: ~$3.16
• Current Price Placement: At $3.93, SUI is sitting on/just under the 23.6% retracement—classic first support for a shallow correction in a bull trend. Deeper retracement targets lie below, but shallow corrections favor continued upward movement.

7. Hourly Chart Dissection (Last 24h)

• Mini-Rolling Top Above $4.30: Failure to sustain above $4.43 from July 28 (00:00–01:00) marks this as a local top; successive hourly closes marked by lower highs and lower closes indicate short-term weakness.
• Support Test: $3.93 region holds; last few hourly closes show base-building attempt.
• Volatility: Compression on most-recent hourly candles after a sharp drop from $4.43 signals potential for either bounce or breakdown—watch for expansion in next few hours.

8. Sentiment & Volatility Analysis

• Implied Volatility: Recent wide candles (>$0.10) suggest ongoing high volatility. This supports swing trading or range plays, with opportunity for quick moves.
• Market Sentiment: Cool-down after parabolic uptrend. Early sellers locking profits, but no evidence of mass exodus. Post-breakout retest is typically bullish, provided support ($3.90) holds.

9. Liquidity & Order Book (Proxy via Volume/Price Action)

• Liquidity Pocket: Volume profile suggests strongest liquidity below $4.00 and again near $3.70–$3.80; these are likely to trigger buy interest on deeper retraces, while supply is clearly clustered around $4.40–4.45.

10. Risk/Reward & Event Play

• Scenario 1: Bullish Rejection at $3.93: A bounce above $3.93 would set up a new base, aiming for $4.30–$4.45.
• Scenario 2: Breakdown Below $3.90: Would re-test $3.78/$3.70; bear flag or correction possible, but volume is light on the pullback, so odds favor bullish continuation.
• Optimal Entry: Buying dips near strong support and post-breakout retest ($3.92–$3.95) provides best risk/reward, with stops below $3.90.

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Combined Conclusion

• The confluence of post-breakout retest, healthy correction, sustained volume and up momentum supports a Buy (Long Position) setup. Look for a bounce off $3.93 with initial targets at the recent high of $4.43. If support fails at $3.90, become defensive.
• Entry: $3.93 (or market if at this price region)
• Target: $4.40–$4.45

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