Sui (SUI) Technical Analysis and 24-Hour Prediction – July 31, 2025

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1. Trend & Price Action Analysis

Daily Trend Review

• Recent Swing Low: $2.45 (2025-06-22)
• Recent High: $4.43 (2025-07-28)
• Current Price: $3.69 (2025-07-31, 20:56 UTC)

SUI rallied ~80% from June lows to recent highs, driven by above-average volume, followed by a sharp pullback to $3.69. The price action since the late July high ($4.43) has sharply rotated lower, forming lower highs and lower lows intraday. There's clear distribution with expanded volume on red candles (July 28-29, July 31 retracement).

Intraday (Hourly) Review

• After a minor bounce to $3.95 (08:00 UTC), SUI steadily trended lower. Every intraday rally—particularly at 12:00, 16:00—was rejected by selling pressure.
• Key Real-Time Support: $3.68–$3.69 (current), $3.60 (breakout area from July 25)
• Short-Term Resistance: $3.80–$3.82 (intraday highs, failed rally zone), $3.95-$4.00 (major prior support-flipped-resistance)

2. Volume & Volatility Analysis

• Volume Spike: Peaks correspond with directional exhaustion—e.g., high volume sell-off July 29 near $3.81 & $3.68—signals increased participation but seller dominance.
• ATR (Average True Range): Daily ATR trended up with recent volatility spike ($0.25+ per day). This indicates elevated risk and opportunity for large moves in the next sessions.

3. Technical Indicators

Simple Moving Averages (SMA)

• 20-Period SMA (Est.): ~$3.88 (above price)
• 50-Period SMA (Est.): ~$3.76 (near current price)
• 100-Period SMA (Est.): ~$3.55

Price recently broke strongly below 20-SMA, now testing the 50-SMA. A break below this moving average typically signals a transition into a deeper correction phase.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

• Est. RSI Daily (Visualized): 35-40, firmly below neutral. SUI is slipping towards oversold, but not deeply so; further downside is likely before bulls return.

MACD

• MACD has crossed bearish, with the signal line above MACD, indicating downward momentum persists.

Bollinger Bands

• SUI is currently riding the lower band after breaking from a period of high expansion. Bands remain wide, indicating strong volatility with directional bias downward.

4. Candle Patterns & Chart Structure

• 2025-07-28 to 2025-07-31: Long upper wicks and large-bodied red candles signal aggressive profit-taking; closes consistently below open.
• No reversal patterns formed on any large timeframe—no hammer, nor bullish engulfing. Intraday candles are predominantly bearish.
• Possible formation of a descending triangle (support $3.65, lower highs)—classically a bearish continuation pattern.

5. Support & Resistance Levels

• Immediate Support: $3.68–$3.69 (current); $3.60 (critical breakdown zone).
• Major Support: $3.45 (prior consolidation, mid-July support)
• Immediate Resistance: $3.80-$3.82; Major Resistance at $4.00

6. Order Flow & Volume Profile

• High-volume node (July 26–July 29): $3.90-$4.10 (now resistance region)
• Volume cluster: $3.60-$3.70; price entering this previously liquid area could accelerate the move down as stop loss orders trigger

7. Momentum & Oscillators

• Bearish momentum is confirmed by all short-term oscillators. Weak bounces lack volume confirmation and fail to regain lost ground. No bullish divergence is visible on any lower time frame.

8. Pattern Recognition: Elliott Waves

• The move from $2.45 to $4.43 can be seen as the 5th wave’s blowoff. The current move is likely the start of an A-B-C corrective decline, with 'A' nearing completion at $3.68 and a weak 'B' likely to stall near $3.8 before a deeper move 'C' unfolds towards $3.45 or below.

9. Fibonacci Levels (Retracements from July Low $2.45 to High $4.43)

• 38.2% retrace: $3.74 (currently being lost)
• 50% retrace: $3.44 (potential next target)
• 61.8% retrace: $3.15 (strong demand zone if panic selling intensifies)

10. Sentiment & Catalysts

• No bullish catalysts visible in volume or pattern structures. Aggressive rejection at previous swing highs and heavy liquidation up to the present price supports a defensive, short-biased stance.
• Market-wide volatility remains elevated without flight-to-quality signals for SUI.

11. Synthesis and 24-Hour Outlook

The prevailing downtrend, confirmation by all major technical indicators (RSI sub-40, MACD negative, price below 20/50 SMA), and absence of reversal or accumulation patterns signals significant downside risk. While momentum oscillators are nearing oversold, no signs of exhaustion or bullish divergence exist yet—suggesting that further price weakening is likely before bulls begin defending more aggressively.

Unless there is a strong, impulsive reclaim of $3.80+ with volume, the path of least resistance remains downward in the next 24 hours. Given markets’ volatility, expect intraday bounces toward resistance ($3.75–$3.80) to be opportunities to add short exposure. The next price magnet is around $3.44–$3.50; potential panic can drive price fast to this level.

12. Order Plan

• Optimal Entry for Short/SELL: $3.70–$3.74 (on weak bounce, close to current price, below lost support)
• Profit Target (TP): $3.45 (next high-volume, technical support, aligns with 50% Fibonacci retrace)
• Invalidation: Strong daily close above $3.82 with volume

Conclusion: Trend, momentum, and volume profiles all confirm SELL/short is the optimal play given the current breakdown and lack of bullish evidence.

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Summary: SUI is entering a breakdown phase after failing to hold support at $3.74. All indicators point lower, favoring an immediate short with a $3.45–$3.50 profit target within the next 24 hours barring a major (and currently unlikely) reversal.