Sui (SUI) Technical Analysis and 24-Hour Price Forecast (as of August 4, 2025)

1. Trend Analysis

• Daily Trend: An evaluation of daily candles from May to early August 2025 shows three key phases: a late-May/June bottoming near $2.55-$2.85, a mid-July surge that failed to break and hold above $4.40, followed by a sharp retracement to sub-$3.20, then an upswing to the $3.55 current area. The recent structure appears to be a bullish reversal from the late-July pullback, with higher lows and higher highs forming in short-term frames.
• Intraday Trend: Hourly candles for August 4th indicate rising pivot lows from $3.44 to $3.58, accompanied by heavy volumes during upticks — strong short-term bullish momentum with pronounced buying activity between $3.50 and $3.62. The minor pullback around $19:00–20:00 followed by an immediate rebound above $3.54 suggests robust underlying demand.

2. Volume Analysis & Order Flow

• Volume Spikes: Highest volume clusters correspond with price accelerations — notably the $3.45-$3.60 breakout zone (14:00–17:00 UTC Aug 4), with upticks on wide-bodied bullish candles. Previous heavy volume nodes at $3.40-$3.50 in late July and $4.20-$4.40 resistance in mid/late July.
• Volume at Price (VAP): Volume-weighted average price is centered around $3.50, with value area high up to $3.62 and acceptance between $3.44–$3.58. Lack of meaningful resistance until the $3.86–$3.90 band, and major support around $3.40.

3. Technical Indicators

• Moving Averages (MA):
  • 20-period EMA: On both daily and hourly, SUI has closed above short-term moving averages, confirming a short-term upside trend. The 20-hour EMA is trending upward near $3.52.
  • 50-period SMA: Sits at $3.41 (hourly) and $3.18 (daily), providing layered support.
  • 200-period SMA: Rising from $2.95 (daily), showing long-term bottoming.
• RSI (Relative Strength Index):
  • Hourly: RSI points at 63–67, not yet overbought (>70), indicating more upside room.
  • Daily: Climbing toward 61, consistent with the beginning of a trending move.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
  • Hourly: Bullish crossover observed at ~16:00 UTC, with increasing histogram size and expanding positive territory.
  • Daily: MACD histogram shrinking negative slope, nearing bullish crossover — indicative of momentum shift.
• Bollinger Bands:
  • Price has broken above the mid-band and is riding the upper band, typical of a strong trend leg, but not yet showing high mean-reversion risk.
  • Bollinger Band width has widened, signaling surging volatility and potential for a trend breakout rather than reversal.
• ATR (Average True Range):
  • Daily ATR has expanded, now up to $0.18-$0.22, indicative of larger expected moves and generally supportive of trend-continuation trades.

4. Chart Patterns & Candlestick Signals

• Recent Bullish Engulfments: 14:00–18:00 UTC candles show a series of bullish engulfing moves, confirming institutional buying.
• Cup-and-Handle Structure: Visible from July lows near $2.68, rounded base healing up to $4.32 (late July), and forming a handle consolidation in the $3.60–$3.80 area.
• Breakout Confirmation: The push above $3.50 with volume (Aug 4, 13:00 and 16:00 UTC) confirms a short-term breakout from the descending handle, with $3.62–$3.65 the immediate resistance.
• Failed Breakdown Traps: The false breakdown to $3.41 overnight followed by a sharp reversal upward is a classic bear trap, further emboldening bulls.

5. Fibonacci & Key Levels

• Fibonacci Retracements: From mid-July high ($4.42) to the $2.67 July low:
  • 23.6% at $3.14
  • 38.2% at $3.53 (just retested and reclaimed)
  • 50% at $3.55
  • 61.8% at $3.78 (short-run target)
• Supply/Demand Zones:
  • Support: $3.44, $3.29, $3.14, $2.86
  • Resistance: $3.62, $3.78, and major at $3.86–$3.90

6. Elliott Wave & Fractals

• The latest surge resembles an impulsive Wave 3 leg (Elliott), with minor Wave 4 pullbacks. If so, an extension to $3.78–$3.85 is the likely completion of the next impulse.

7. Market Sentiment & Order Block Analysis

• Large volume at $3.50–$3.55 suggests accumulation. Lack of selling pressure as price nears $3.60 indicates shorts are being squeezed, especially given trapped supply between $3.44–$3.52.

8. Risk & Opportunity Assessment

• Stop (Invalidation) Zone: Below $3.44 (loss of upward structure).
• Profit Potential: To $3.78–$3.85, possibly testing $3.90 if momentum persists.
• Reward/Risk: Buy at $3.55, stop at $3.44 (-3.1%), target at $3.78 (+6.5%) — R/R ratio >2.

9. Projection for Next 24 Hours

• Bias: Bullish. Accumulation phase appears to be resolving upward. No significant resistance until $3.78–$3.85.
• Scenario: Buy momentum likely to continue, especially into the late Asian/early European session. Volatility may cause minor retracements to $3.51–$3.53, but dips will likely be bought quickly.
• Breakout Target: $3.78 (initial), potential spike to $3.85 with strong momentum.

Final Recommendation & Execution

• Given the short- and medium-term technical signals, breakout structuring, and orderflow, this is a clear Buy (Long Position) setup with optimal risk/reward.
• Open Price: $3.55 (current market; consider slightly lower entry on minor pullbacks, $3.54–$3.55 is ideal).
• Close Price (Take Profit): $3.78 (Fibonacci and horizontal resistance confluence). Potential runner portion can target $3.85 for higher risk-tolerant traders.

Risk Note: Invalidate the trade if price closes below $3.44 hourly — indicates failed breakout and likely return to value zone.

Summary: SUI is breaking higher from a base, with strong volume confirmation. Technical, sentiment, and volatility indicators all align for a bullish 24-hour outlook up to $3.78–$3.85.