SUI: Buy the Shallow Dip — Aiming for 3.86 as Bull Flag Resolves Higher Within 24 Hours

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for Sui (SUI)

1. Market structure and trend context

• Daily trend: Since the Sep 1 pivot low at ~3.20, SUI has made a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, rallying to ~3.82–3.85 on Sep 13. Today (Sep 14) shows a controlled pullback to ~3.65–3.71, preserving the uptrend. Structure remains bullish above 3.62–3.66.
• Intraday (hourly) trend: From late Sep 13 into today, price carved a gentle descending channel with lower highs (3.83 → 3.80 → 3.79 → 3.73) and found support twice near 3.65 (double-bottom/secondary test). The latest bounce toward 3.72 suggests basing behavior and loss of downside momentum.
• Regime: After a mid-August basing phase around 3.30–3.50, SUI transitioned to markup. Today’s softness appears corrective within an uptrend (bull flag/handle dynamics).

2. Moving averages (trend filters)

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~3.451. Current price 3.71 is comfortably above, confirming bullish bias.
• 50-day SMA (approx): ~3.70 area. Price is hovering near/just above it, acting as dynamic support and a battleground for intraday sentiment. Holding above this strengthens the bullish case.
• 9-day EMA (computed): ~3.614. Price > EMA9, indicating short-term momentum still favors the upside despite today’s dip. Interpretation: Multi-MA alignment is constructive (Price > EMA9 > SMA20; price ≈ SMA50). The dip is to moving-average support, not a trend reversal.

3. Momentum oscillators

• 14-day RSI (computed): ~70–71. This reflects strong upside momentum, slightly overbought but tempered by today’s pullback. Overbought in trends often persists; the shallow retrace is healthy rather than a major sell signal.
• Stochastic (qualitative): Likely easing from overbought on the intraday timeframe, consistent with consolidation; watch for a bullish cross as price reclaims ~3.74–3.76.
• MACD (qualitative): Positive MACD (12/26) on daily after the early September surge; histogram likely contracted on today’s pullback, signaling a pause rather than a rollover. Interpretation: Momentum remains bullish but has cooled intraday, creating space for continuation.

4. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• 20-day Bollinger basis: ~3.451. Estimated upper band ~3.85 and lower band ~3.05 (std dev ~0.20). Price pulled back from near the upper band to the upper-middle of the envelope.
• Takeaway: No band overrun or squeeze failure. Bandwidth supports a continued trend with typical daily oscillations (~0.20–0.25), consistent with an ATR-like daily range.

5. Fibonacci mapping (current swing)

• Swing low: 3.198 (Sep 1). Swing high: 3.815 (Sep 13). Range: 0.617.
• Key retracements: 23.6% = 3.669; 38.2% = 3.579; 50% = 3.507; 61.8% = 3.434.
• Price is holding above the 23.6% retrace (~3.67). Shallow retracements (≤23.6%) indicate strong trend control by buyers. The 3.66–3.70 pocket is prime dip-buy territory.

6. Support/resistance and supply/demand zones

• Immediate support: 3.66–3.70 (23.6% Fib, intraday double bottom ~3.65, daily pivot S1 ~3.64). Below that: 3.62 (Sep 10 close/pivot), 3.50 (psych level/cluster).
• Immediate resistance: 3.79–3.80 (intraday R1/pivot, recent lower-high shelf), then 3.83–3.85 (Sep 13 highs/upper BB vicinity). Break above 3.85 unlocks 3.90–4.00 (round-number magnet and prior supply from early August).
• Volume/OBV (qualitative): Upside legs in Sep have seen solid volume; pullbacks generally on lighter volume. OBV trend since Sep 1 is constructive, supporting accumulation.

7. Intraday pivots, VWAP, and microstructure

• Classic daily pivot (today): P ≈ 3.722; R1 ≈ 3.793; S1 ≈ 3.640. Price currently just below P and well above S1. A reclaim of P often leads to a probe of R1.
• Intraday VWAP (qualitative): Likely centered in the 3.72–3.74 region given today’s prints; reclaiming and holding VWAP would strengthen the long trigger.
• Pattern context: A modest bull flag/handle from 3.83 high into 3.65–3.72. Breakout trigger sits at 3.74–3.76 (flag top / VWAP). Conservative entries buy near 3.67–3.69 support; aggressive entries buy the breakout over 3.76.

8. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price is likely above the cloud with Tenkan > Kijun, given the multi-week upturn and positioning above 20- and 50-day filters. A shallow pullback toward Kijun-equivalent support (~3.65–3.70) often precedes continuation. Cloud support presumed below 3.55–3.60.

9. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• From Sep 1 low, a 5-wave advance outline fits: (1) 3.20→3.39; (2) 3.39→3.29; (3) 3.29→3.72; (4) 3.72→3.65 (shallow); (5) pending toward 3.85–3.95.
• Invalidation for this short-term count sits below ~3.62 (would deepen wave 4 beyond typical shallow behavior).

10. Candles and patterns

• Sep 13: strong bullish candle. Sep 14: small-bodied/spinning-top-type day with long lower intraday wicks near 3.65—indicative of dip buying.
• Intraday: Two tests of 3.65 with higher subsequent lows into the close hint at seller exhaustion, supporting a bounce into the next session.

11. Risk and scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (bullish continuation, ~60%): Hold 3.66–3.70, reclaim pivot 3.72–3.74, then push into 3.79–3.85 (R1/resistance). If momentum persists, wick toward 3.88–3.90 is possible.
• Range/sideways (neutral, ~25%): Chop between 3.65 and 3.79, digesting gains before a later breakout.
• Bearish surprise (risk case, ~15%): Lose 3.65 and close below 3.62, opening a deeper pullback toward 3.58 (38.2% Fib) or 3.50 (50% Fib) before buyers reassert.

12. Synthesis of tools

• Trend MAs (SMA20/EMA9) are supportive; SMA50 is being tested/held.
• Momentum (RSI ~70) is strong but cooling; shallow Fib retrace and intraday basing favor continuation.
• Pivots/Bollinger/ATR imply room for a 2–4% recovery to resistance without overstretching volatility norms.
• Volume/OBV behavior aligns with accumulation; pullback on lighter activity is constructive.
• Pattern set (bull flag/handle, double-bottom at 3.65) suggests an upside resolution.

Trading Plan

• Bias: Buy the dip (Long). Optimal entry is a limit near 3.68 (confluence of 23.6% Fib, intraday support, near Kijun-equivalent zone), with an alternative add/confirmation on reclaim >3.76.
• Target (24h): 3.86 (just below the 3.85 resistance band to increase fill probability). Stretch target 3.90–3.92 if momentum spikes; but primary TP set conservatively at 3.86.
• Invalidation (for risk management, not an order field): a decisive break/close below 3.62 would question the immediate long setup and favor a deeper retrace.

24-hour price path expectation

• Likely range: 3.65–3.86, with intraday pushes toward R1 (~3.79) and potential tag of 3.83–3.86 if VWAP is reclaimed and held. Probability-weighted drift is upward from current 3.71 levels.

Conclusion: The pullback appears shallow and corrective in a strengthening daily uptrend. Favor buying near 3.68 support for a push toward 3.86 within the next 24 hours.