SUI coiled for a break: Hourly bull flag aims at a 3.78–3.82 retest (with 3.815 in play)

Summary view

• Instrument: Sui (SUI)
• Current price: 3.6674
• Time horizon for prediction: Next 24 hours
• Bias: Moderately bullish continuation after a higher-low retest and strong intraday impulsive leg

1. Multi-timeframe market structure

• Daily structure (last ~80 days): Uptrend from early June through late July topped near 4.42, corrective leg through late August bottomed around 3.20–3.25, followed by a September recovery. Sequence since 9/1: HL at 3.198 → HH at 3.815 (9/13) → HL at 3.525 (9/15–16) → bounce in progress. This preserves an ascending daily structure (higher lows intact).
• 4H/1H structure (last 48h): Clear intraday basing between 3.54–3.62, then a strong impulse 18:00–20:00 UTC that took price to 3.71 followed by a shallow pullback to 3.667. Higher lows stepping up: 3.540 → 3.564 → 3.569 → 3.673. Structure favors a bull flag/continuation.

2. Key levels (confluence of SR, prior closes, intraday turns)

• Immediate resistance: 3.71–3.74 (hourly high 3.711; daily supply shelf around 3.72–3.74 from 9/11–9/12).
• Next resistance: 3.78–3.82 (prior cluster and the 9/13 close 3.815). Beyond: 3.88–3.90 (BB upper/FE 1.272), then 3.99–4.00 (round+FE 1.618).
• Immediate support: 3.60–3.62 (hourly VWAP zone/mini range top), 3.57 (hourly pivot), 3.540 (session low). Daily swing HL/invalidator: 3.525.

3. Moving averages and trend gauges

• Daily SMAs (approx):
  • 5D SMA ≈ 3.66, 10D SMA ≈ 3.63, 20D SMA ≈ 3.47, 50D SMA ≈ ~3.60 (est.).
  • Price > 5D > 10D > 20D and ≳ 50D: constructive stacking; momentum above mean across short/mid tenors.
• Hourly MAs: Price is above 20/50-hour averages after a fresh bullish inflection, indicating near-term control by buyers. The 20>50 slope is turning up.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (est.): Mid-to-high 50s/low 60s after recovering from the 9/15–16 dip; comfortably away from overbought. Room to run.
• Hourly RSI: Pushed into low 60s on the impulse to 3.71, cooled modestly on the pullback to 3.667. This aligns with a bull flag consolidation rather than exhaustion.
• Stochastic (H1/H4): Rising from mid-range, not pegged; supports continuation after minor consolidation.

5. MACD / histogram

• Daily MACD: Positive and re-expanding after the two-day pullback; histogram ticking higher, indicating a potential second push of the current up-leg.
• Hourly MACD: Bullish cross occurred prior to the 18:00–19:00 spike; histogram remains green though slightly contracting during the pause—typical of a flag.

6. Volatility and bands

• 20D ATR (est.): ~0.18–0.22. From 3.667, a 1x ATR move points to 3.85–3.89 topside or 3.49–3.48 downside within 24h; skew likely to the upside given structure.
• Daily Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline ≈ 3.47; upper band ≈ 3.87–3.90. Price near the upper half yet with headroom to the upper band—consistent with a grind higher.
• Hourly Bollinger: Price tapped upper band at 3.71; band expansion underway; a controlled mean reversion to mid-band (≈3.64–3.65) would be an attractive dip.

7. Volume/flow

• Daily volume: Strong on up-days in early/mid-September; pullback days were not distributional. Today’s intraday ramp showed notable spikes (18:00–20:00 UTC), hinting at initiative buying, not just short covering.
• OBV (qualitative): Rising trend from 9/1; pullback did not erase prior gains; resumed upturn today. This confirms accumulation rather than distribution.

8. Fibonacci mapping (recent swing)

• Swing: 9/13 high 3.815 → 9/15–16 low 3.525 (range 0.290).
• Retracements from 3.525: 38.2% = 3.636, 50% = 3.670, 61.8% = 3.704.
• Current price ~3.667 sits near the 50% ret; a push through 3.704 opens a clean path to retest 3.815. Extensions from 3.525: 1.272 ≈ 3.894; 1.618 ≈ 3.994.

9. Pattern recognition and breadth of evidence

• Bull flag on the hourly: Fast impulse to 3.71 followed by a tight pullback holding rising intraday MAs.
• Elliott wave framing (heuristic): Wave 1 (3.20→3.386), Wave 2 (3.386→3.288), Wave 3 (3.288→3.815), Wave 4 (3.815→3.525), Wave 5 in progress; measured move targets overlap 3.88–3.95.
• Ichimoku (daily, qualitative): Price above Tenkan (~3.62) and Kijun (~3.50), cloud support below; bullish bias while Tenkan> Kijun and price above both.

10. Statistical/conditional outlook (24h)

• Base case (60%): Break-and-hold above 3.704 (61.8% retrace) → 3.72–3.74 test, then 3.78–3.82. Close near 3.77–3.82.
• Range case (30%): Range 3.60–3.71 as price digests the impulse; net sideways but constructive.
• Bear case (10%): Loss of 3.57 intraday pivot → sweep to 3.54; only below 3.525 would damage the daily uptrend.
• Expected 24h range: 3.57–3.82 (tail risk spikes to 3.88 on strong momentum).

11. Risk management and trade structuring

• Rationale for long: Daily uptrend intact (HL at 3.525), MAs stacked, momentum positive, intraday flag after a strong initiative push, and Fib confluence at current levels. Resistance overhead is stair-stepped and tradable.
• Optimal entry style:
  • Dip-buy limit near 3.64–3.66 (mid-BB/hourly mean; aligns with 38.2–50% intraday retracement of the 18:00–20:00 leg).
  • Alternative breakout buy stop: >3.714 to catch expansion through local resistance if dip does not fill.
• Targeting: First objective 3.815 (prior daily high/cluster), with stretch to 3.88 if momentum persists.
• Invalidation (not requested but prudent): A firm hourly close below 3.57 weakens the setup; a daily close below 3.525 would negate the bullish thesis.

Conclusion and 24h prediction

• Bias: Buy dips; expect an attempt to clear 3.704 (61.8% retrace) and probe 3.72–3.74. If accepted above, momentum likely carries to 3.78–3.82, with a realistic tap of 3.815 within the 24h window given ATR.
• Probability-weighted path: Upward drift with shallow pullbacks; higher close versus current is more likely than not.