SUI Coils Beneath 4.00: Triple-Confluence Breakout Setup Targets 4.15

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish. Expect a range-to-up session with a breakout attempt above the 3.96–3.98 confluence, targeting 4.12–4.18 if volume confirms. Ideal long entries on a shallow pullback to ~3.90–3.92 or on a clean breakout >4.00 with expansion in volume.
• Key inflection: 3.96–3.98 (Fibonacci and pivot confluence). A sustained hold above this band opens 4.13–4.17. Failure/rejection likely mean-reversion to 3.88–3.85 before reloading.

1. Price action and market structure

• Higher time frame (daily): Since the Sep 1 swing low at ~3.20, SUI has formed higher highs and higher lows, breaking the August downtrend. The sequence from Sep 6 onward shows rising closes: 3.34 → 3.95, confirming an established uptrend.
• Intermediate structure: Price reclaimed the late-August breakdown zone (3.62–3.72), then advanced through 3.78–3.85 supply, now pressing a critical resistance shelf at ~3.96–4.00.
• Intraday (1h): Today’s action carved an ascending triangle: flat tops near 3.965–3.968 (seen 14:00–18:00) with rising higher lows (3.872 → 3.90 → 3.94). This structure typically resolves higher when trend and breadth are supportive.
• Notable swing points:
  • Support: 3.90/3.89 (intraday shelf), 3.85 (breakout pivot), 3.78–3.80 (trend support), 3.72, 3.62.
  • Resistance: 3.96–3.98 (multi-tool confluence), 4.12–4.17 (measured/pivot/fib cluster), 4.17–4.18 (Aug swing), 4.32–4.43 (July highs).

2. Moving averages (trend filters)

• EMA9/EMA21 (daily): Price is clearly above both short- and medium-term EMAs (inferred from persistent higher closes since Sep 10–12). Bullish momentum regime; pullbacks to the 9/21 EMA zone (~3.78–3.85) have been bought.
• SMA20 (daily): Estimated ~3.58–3.62. Price above the 20-SMA implies momentum-on. Being near the upper Bollinger band is acceptable in trends.
• SMA50 (daily): Estimated ~3.60–3.70. Price well above; the 20/50 slope is positive, confirming trend resumption.
• Conclusion: MAs support buying dips; no mean-reversion sell signal from MAs.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI (daily, est.): ~62–66. Healthy bullish momentum without overbought extremes (>70). Room to extend before classic overbought concerns.
• RSI (1h, est.): High 60s/low 70s into the 3.96 tests; minor intraday pullbacks reset froth. Oscillator behavior is consistent with a trend advance with shallow dips.
• Stochastic RSI (daily): Likely elevated but can remain pinned during trends. Expect brief fades to midline on intraday basis before attempts higher.
• MACD (daily): Positive and expanding since ~Sep 10–12. Histogram growth supports continuation.
• Takeaway: Momentum is supportive of a breakout; no clear bearish divergence on the daily. Minor intraday divergences possible at 3.97–4.00, but need confirmation via rejection + volume.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR14 (daily, est.): ~0.22–0.30. One-day expected move roughly ±6–8% from spot (3.95), suggesting a typical range of ~3.70–4.20.
• Bollinger Bands (daily): Midline ~SMA20 (~3.6). Price riding the upper band into resistance is bullish; tag-and-walk behavior implies buyers in control. A brief mean-reversion to 3.88–3.85 would be normal if the first breakout effort stalls.

5. Ichimoku Cloud (daily)

• Price above the cloud with conversion > base and a bullish Kumo twist left behind earlier in the week. Chikou span likely above price/Cloud as well. This setup favors trend continuation and dip buying; baseline support likely near 3.70–3.78.

6. Fibonacci mapping (key confluences)

• Major swing: Jul 27 high 4.431 → Sep 1 low 3.198; range = 1.233.
  • 38.2%: 3.669
  • 50%: 3.8145
  • 61.8%: 3.960 (critical)
  • 78.6%: 4.167
• Secondary swing: Aug 14 high 4.175 → Sep 1 low 3.198; range = 0.977.
  • 61.8%: 3.802
  • 78.6%: 3.966 (critical)
• Confluence: 3.96–3.97 is the overlap of 61.8% (major) and 78.6% (secondary) — a high-importance resistance. A strong close above 3.97 flips this level into support and typically accelerates toward 4.12–4.17 (next fib/pivot cluster) and potentially 4.175 (prior swing high).

7. Pivots and levels for today/tomorrow

• Previous day (Sep 17) H/L/C: 3.8008 / 3.5403 / 3.7737.
  • Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 3.7049
  • R1 ≈ 3.8695 (already reclaimed)
  • R2 ≈ 3.9654 (today’s ceiling)
  • R3 ≈ 4.1300
  • S1 ≈ 3.6091, S2 ≈ 3.4445, S3 ≈ 3.2403
• Today’s action respected this map: price broke R1 and is pressing R2. A decisive break through R2 statistically targets R3 (~4.13), aligning with fib 78.6% from the major swing (4.167) and the Aug high (~4.175). This is a strong multi-tool target zone.

8. Volume/flow tools

• Volume trend: Rising participation on up days since Sep 10–12; today’s aggregated volume is robust, consistent with markup rather than distribution.
• OBV (conceptual): Rising since Sep 1, consistent with accumulation.
• VWAP (session, intraday): Price spent most of the session above VWAP; shallow pullbacks to VWAP have been bought. A VWAP retest near 3.90–3.92 would be a favorable risk-defined long entry if offered.
• Liquidity: 4.00 is a psychological level with likely resting stops/iceberg orders. Expect a brief liquidity sweep/wick through 4.00 before either continuation or a fast fade. If that sweep holds above 3.96 on the retest, odds of trend extension improve.

9. Trend strength and confirmation

• ADX (daily, est.): >20 and rising with +DI > -DI. Indicates a strengthening bullish trend.
• Parabolic SAR (daily): Likely flipped below price since ~Sep 10–11; trailing SAR probably in the 3.77–3.80 area, consistent with dynamic support.

10. Candlestick/price action tells

• Daily candles: A series of higher low bullish bodies without upper-wick blowoffs. Today is another constructive candle pressing resistance rather than rejecting it, which argues for continuation.
• Intraday wicks: Rejections were minor at 3.965–3.968, forming a clean flat-top that favors a later break given the rising lows.

11. Pattern frameworks

• Ascending triangle (1h): Measured move = height of pattern (~3.965 top minus ~3.872 base ≈ 0.093). Breakout projection from 3.97 ≈ 4.06. Momentum/trend context often overshoots the measured target; with pivot R3 and fibs above, a push into 4.12–4.17 is plausible on strong volume.
• Elliott Wave (heuristic): From 3.20 low, wave 1 into ~3.50–3.62, wave 2 pullback into ~3.52–3.56 (Sep 15), wave 3 currently toward 4.12–4.18, then wave 4 mild consolidation to ~3.95–4.00, wave 5 retest 4.17–4.33 if trend persists. This is illustrative, not prescriptive.
• Harmonic/AB=CD: A/B/C legs imply an AB=CD completion near 3.98–4.02; given trend context, an initial pause is normal, but continuation is more likely with volume expansion.

12. Scenario planning (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Breakout and hold above 3.96–3.98, squeeze through 4.00–4.02, extend to 4.12–4.17. Intraday pullbacks likely shallow to 3.96–3.98 (now-support) or 3.90–3.92 if early rejection, followed by a second attempt higher.
• Range/coil (25%): Multiple probes into 3.96–3.98 fail initially; price oscillates 3.88–3.98 as momentum resets, then resolves higher within 24–48h.
• Bearish fade (15%): Clean rejection at ~3.97–4.00 with a push below 3.89; sellers press to 3.85, possibly 3.78 on stop cascades. Would require negative market-wide risk tone or a volume-backed supply influx. Current evidence does not favor this path, but it’s the main risk.

13. Risk management and trade construction

• Long thesis: Buy strength in an uptrend into a multi-confluence breakout, or buy a controlled dip into prior resistance turned support.
• Optimal entry: Two tactical choices: (A) Pullback entry 3.90–3.92 (VWAP/structural support) with a stop ~3.84; (B) Breakout entry >4.01 on a 15–60m close with volume confirmation. For one price, the pullback offers best risk/reward and is more likely to be filled intraday.
• Targets: First target 4.12–4.13 (R3), extension 4.15–4.17 (fib 78.6% major + Aug high). Conservative take-profit near 4.145 balances attainment odds and reward.
• Invalidation: A daily close back below ~3.85 would damage the breakout structure and raise odds of a deeper retrace to 3.78 or 3.72.
• Trailing logic (optional): Use Parabolic SAR or a 1h swing-low trail once price is above 4.05 to defend gains.

14. Why not short here?

• Shorting directly into an uptrend pressing a multi-tool confluence, with rising OBV and MACD, is a low-odds bet unless a strong rejection prints (e.g., a wide-range bearish engulfing on heavy volume with a breakdown below 3.89). Absent that, the path of least resistance remains up.

15. Synthesis

• Confluence at 3.96–3.98 (Fib 61.8 major, Fib 78.6 secondary, Pivot R2) has contained price intraday, but the broader trend, volume posture, and intraday ascending triangle favor a break. Expected 24h path: a quick dip to 3.90–3.92 to reload, then push through 3.98–4.02, tagging 4.12–4.17. Plan to buy the dip; use 3.84 as a tactical stop in practice. Profit-take near 4.145 aligns with statistical reach (≈1x ATR) and heavy resistance just overhead.

Key levels recap

• Support: 3.90/3.89; 3.85; 3.78–3.80; 3.72; 3.62.
• Resistance: 3.96–3.98; 4.12–4.13; 4.15–4.17; 4.18; 4.32–4.43.

Prediction (24h)

• Expected range: 3.88–4.17, with upside skew. Base case close nearer the upper third of the range if 3.96–3.98 flips to support.

Note: This is a market analysis, not investment advice. Manage risk size appropriately and monitor broader crypto beta, as SUI is sensitive to market-wide momentum shifts.