SUI at the Golden Pocket: Bull Flag Pullback into Ichimoku Support

Executive summary and bias

• Bias: Moderately bullish over the next 24 hours. Expect a stabilization/bounce from 3.62–3.66 support toward 3.78–3.88, with an upside attempt to retest 3.89–3.90. A clean break under 3.61–3.60 would defer the upside and risk a deeper test of 3.55–3.53.
• Rationale: Multi-timeframe confluence of supports (Ichimoku Senkou A, Kijun proximity, 50%–61.8% fib of the Sept advance, Bollinger mid-band area, hourly oversold) against a still-intact September uptrend (higher highs and higher lows, positive daily MACD/OBV).

Market structure and price action

• Big picture (daily):
  • July peak near 4.43, multi-week decline into late Aug/early Sept trough ~3.25, then a September recovery with higher highs/lows. Yesterday printed a local high ~3.976 and a strong close 3.895; today pulled back to ~3.65.
  • Structure remains constructive: yesterday’s higher high (>3.874 on 9/13) established an uptrend; current pullback is within the prior breakout leg and is approaching a high-probability support cluster rather than reversing trend.
• Near-term (hourly, last 24h):
  • Controlled, low-volume pullback in a descending channel from ~3.90 to ~3.65—typical bull flag/handle behavior following a strong impulsive leg.
  • Lower highs/lows intraday but decelerating momentum and proximity to significant supports (3.65→3.63). Hourly action suggests basing potential, not aggressive distribution.

Key levels (confluence)

• Resistance: 3.706 (61.8% pullback of 9/17→9/18 leg), 3.758 (50%), 3.809 (38.2%), 3.875–3.90 (recent swing close/high & psychological), 3.95–4.00 (round number, prior supply).
• Support: 3.648–3.635 (spot price, 78.6% retrace of the 9/17→9/18 leg ~3.633, Ichimoku Senkou A projection ~3.635), 3.614 (50% retrace of the 8/31→9/18 advance), 3.60 round, 3.548 (Ichimoku Kijun), 3.528–3.53 (61.8% of the full 8/31→9/18 leg), 3.48 (9/16 low).

Trend and moving averages

• SMA20 (≈3.52) rising; price (≈3.65) above it—bullish intermediate bias.
• 10-day mean (≈3.70) just overhead; pullback below a rising short MA is normal post-spike digestion.
• EMA setup (approximate): 9-EMA ~3.69–3.71, 21-EMA ~3.57–3.60. Price is below 9-EMA but above 21-EMA—typical of a healthy pullback in an uptrend.
• Interpret: While short-term momentum cooled, the medium-term trend remains positive; pullbacks to the 21-EMA/MA20 zone tend to offer dip-buys until the 21-EMA decisively breaks.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily: Upper-mid range (mid-50s to low-60s) after a strong run; not overbought. Room to extend higher upon stabilization.
• RSI hourly: Likely in the low-30s/oversold neighborhood during the channel drift—supportive of a bounce setup.
• Stochastics: Daily curling down from overbought (normal post-impulse), hourly near or through oversold—bullish for tactical mean reversion.

MACD and histogram

• Daily MACD: Above zero with positive histogram recently expanding; today’s pullback likely narrowed the histogram but signal remains constructive (bullish regime). Momentum pauses are common after tagging upper bands.
• Hourly MACD: Negative but flattening; a crossover attempt on a base near 3.63–3.66 would add confirmation for the bounce.

Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Middle band near SMA20 ≈3.52; upper band recently approached on the 3.97 spike; price has reverted toward the middle-upper region (≈3.52–3.65). Pullback from the upper band to the mid-band zone is textbook mean reversion; bulls often reassert near/above the middle band in an uptrend.
• ATR(14) daily: ≈0.22–0.25. Implies an expected 24h range near ±6%–7%. From 3.65, a typical range targets ~3.41–3.89, framing realistic upside to retest 3.88–3.90 if the bounce triggers.

Ichimoku cloud (daily)

• Tenkan (9): ≈3.72. Kijun (26): ≈3.55. Senkou A (lead): ≈3.635. Senkou B (lead): ≈3.37.
• Price is above Kijun and near Senkou A; the cloud ahead is green (Senkou A > Senkou B), indicating bullish conditions. Trading near Senkou A often presents a buy-the-dip area in an uptrend. Losing Senkou A cleanly (and then Kijun) would be the key warning.

Fibonacci mapping

• Full Sept advance (8/31 low 3.251 → 9/18 high 3.976; range 0.725):
  • 38.2%: 3.699; 50%: 3.614; 61.8%: 3.528.
  • Current 3.65 is between the 50% and 61.8% retracement—an attractive “golden pocket” buy zone.
• Recent impulse (9/17 low ~3.540 → 9/18 high ~3.976; range 0.436):
  • 61.8%: 3.706; 78.6%: 3.633. Price is hovering around 78.6%, which, combined with Ichimoku Senkou A ~3.635, strengthens the support confluence.

Volume, breadth, and flows

• Volume: Strong expansion on the 9/17–9/18 rally vs. lighter volumes on today’s dip—bullish volume asymmetry (buyers more aggressive on advances than sellers on pullbacks).
• OBV (qualitative): Rising through September, consistent with accumulation. No glaring negative divergence versus yesterday’s price high.
• Conclusion: Accumulation on advances and lighter distribution on pullbacks favors buying dips until a clear distribution day emerges.

Pattern diagnostics

• Bull flag/handle: The hourly descending channel after a sharp up-leg fits a classic bull flag. A break above 3.71–3.76 confirms a flag break, projecting a measured move back toward 3.88–3.95.
• Cup-and-handle (daily, tentative): The 8/31 to 9/13 rounding base with a pullback handle into mid-September is plausible. A decisive breakout and hold above ~3.90–3.95 would target the psychological 4.00–4.10 zone next.

Risk scenario and invalidation

• Primary risk: A sustained break below 3.61–3.60 (50% of the larger Sept advance) opens 3.55 Kijun and then 3.53–3.52 (61.8% of the larger leg). Losing 3.52 would threaten the higher-low structure and shift bias neutral-to-bearish for the next 24–48h.
• Secondary risk: Weekend liquidity vacuum can exaggerate moves; be mindful of wicks through 3.63 before reversal.

24-hour outlook (scenarios)

• Base case (60%): Stabilize 3.63–3.66, then bounce to 3.74–3.82 with extension to 3.85–3.88. Sellers likely defend 3.89–3.90 on first test.
• Range case (30%): Chop between 3.60 and 3.76 as the market digests yesterday’s spike; a later-session push attempts 3.80.
• Bear case (10%): Clean break below 3.60 triggers a quick flush to 3.55–3.53 before a reflexive bounce.

Trade plan logic and execution

• Edge source: Multi-indicator confluence at 3.63–3.66 (Ichimoku Senkou A ≈3.635, fib golden pocket 0.5–0.618 of the Sept leg, proximity to daily Kijun 3.55, hourly oversold, pullback on lighter volume).
• Entry: Use a limit buy near 3.635 to capture a minor liquidity sweep below current trade. If not filled and price reclaims 3.706 (61.8% of the 9/17–9/18 leg), momentum entry is also valid but with a slightly reduced R:R.
• Exit/target: First target at 3.875 (just below the 3.89–3.90 resistance cluster and within ATR reach). This front-runs likely supply and improves fill odds.

Overall assessment

• The medium-term uptrend is intact; the current dip aligns with typical post-breakout digestion into strong, well-defined supports. Probability-weighted outcomes favor a tactical long with a target below the immediate overhead supply.