SUI poised to spring from 38.2% fib support: targeting a 3.70 reclaim and 3.84 within 24 hours

Executive summary and setup

• Bias (next 24h): Mildly bullish. Expect a corrective bounce from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement area toward 3.78–3.86 if 3.62–3.66 support holds. Base case is range early, then continuation higher if 3.70 is reclaimed on volume.
• R/R window: Best reward-to-risk appears on a buy-the-dip near 3.65–3.67 with upside into 3.82–3.86. Invalidation if 3.62 breaks decisively (would open path to 3.59/3.55).

Context and market structure

• Higher time frame (Daily): From the Sep 1 swing low (3.198) SUI advanced to the Sep 18 swing high (3.9757), establishing a higher-high structure. Sep 19 printed a sharp corrective candle (close 3.6396) but price remains above the rising 20DMA and above the 50% of the most recent impulsive leg, signaling a pullback within an uptrend rather than a trend change.
• Medium time frame (4h/1h proxy via hourly prints): Since the Sep 19 selloff, price has carved an intraday range of roughly 3.62–3.70 with repeated rejections near 3.70 and higher-lows clustering around 3.65. This looks like a pause/absorption phase after the fast drop, typical before a mean-reversion bounce.
• Key levels from the tape:
  • Support: 3.62–3.66 (confluence zone: Sep 19 low 3.6180, Sep 10 close 3.6197, intraday reactions around 3.654–3.657). Below: 3.59 (50% fib), 3.55–3.56 (Kijun zone est.), 3.50/3.48 (1–1.25 ATR down).
  • Resistance: 3.70 pivot (intraday supply), 3.74/3.78 (recent swing micro-highs), 3.815 (Sep 13 close), 3.895–3.912 (Sep 18/19 supply), 3.975–4.00 (swing high/psych).

Multi-tool technical analysis

1. Trend and moving averages

• 20D SMA ≈ 3.52 (computed from last 20 closes). Price at 3.676 is above the 20SMA: short-term uptrend intact.
• 50D SMA (est.) ≈ 3.72–3.76 based on July/Aug ranges. Price is just below/near it, consistent with current consolidation under intermediate trend resistance.
• EMAs: 8/9/21 EMAs cluster around 3.67–3.73 by estimation. Price near the 9/21 EMA ribbon suggests equilibrium; a push above 3.70–3.73 would re-expand the ribbon upward. Impact: Above 20SMA with EMAs compressing favors an upside expansion once 3.70–3.73 breaks.

2. RSI/Stochastics

• Daily RSI(14) ≈ 59 (computed), down from overbought risk but still north of 50: bull bias with room to run before overbought.
• Stochastic (14) ~ mid-50s based on range since Aug 24: neutral, slightly rising from midline—compatible with bounce potential. Impact: Momentum cooled from the Sep 18 push, now reset to neutral-bullish, allowing another leg up without immediate overbought risk.

3. MACD

• Daily MACD likely positive after the Sep rally but with histogram contraction post-Sep 19—classic pullback within a bullish regime. On lower timeframes, MACD is near the zero line; a small tick up on an hourly close above 3.70 would be a signal for continuation. Impact: Pullback losing bearish momentum; a shallow bullish cross on hourly is likely if 3.70 reclaims.

4. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Mid-band ~ 20SMA ≈ 3.52. Price is in the upper half of the band but below the upper band (upper est. ~3.92). Bandwidth is moderate—not a squeeze but not expanded. Impact: There is overhead room to the upper band; mean reversion favors drift toward 3.80–3.90 if support holds.

5. Ichimoku (approximate daily)

• Tenkan (9-period mid) ≈ 3.72; Kijun (26-period mid) ≈ 3.55. Price 3.676 is just below Tenkan but well above Kijun, and likely above the cloud (given recent multi-week uptrend and lows near 3.12 within the 26 window). Impact: Bullish regime. Price slightly below Tenkan implies short-term resistance at ~3.72; reclaiming it typically resumes trend toward recent highs.

6. Fibonacci analysis

• Swing low 3.198 (Sep 1) to swing high 3.9757 (Sep 18):
  • 38.2% = 3.679 (current price sits right here)
  • 50% = 3.587
  • 61.8% = 3.495 Impact: Textbook shallow retracement (38.2%) within an impulsive move. Holding 3.67–3.68 favors continuation toward 3.82–3.90.

7. Elliott Wave framing (heuristic)

• Move 3.20 → 3.98 likely a wave 3-style impulse. Current drop to the 0.382 zone resembles a wave 4 flat/zigzag. If valid, a modest wave 5 toward or slightly above prior high (3.90–4.00) can materialize; within 24h a partial advance into 3.82–3.88 is reasonable. Impact: Supports a continuation bounce thesis with invalidation on deep retrace (<3.55).

8. Volume/OBV/MFI

• Rising volume on the Sep advance, spike on Sep 18–19, then lighter weekend volumes. OBV trend from early Sep remains up despite the pullback; selling did not fully erase accumulation.
• MFI likely reset from high-60s/70s to mid-50s with the pullback. Impact: Healthy pullback volume profile; no distribution signature yet. A volume uptick on a 3.70 breakout would confirm buyers’ control.

9. ATR and volatility

• 14D ATR estimated ~0.20–0.25. From 3.676, an average day can span ~3.48–3.88. Two-sided tails are possible; plan for whipsaws around 3.70 pivot. Impact: A 1x ATR upside target into ~3.87 fits the 24h horizon.

10. Candlestick and price action

• Sep 18 printed a near shooting-star type (high 3.9757, close 3.8948), followed by a strong red day Sep 19 (close 3.6396). Today (Sep 20) is an inside-type consolidation day within Sep 19’s range with higher intraday lows. This often precedes a directional break; given broader trend and fib confluence, the probabilistic break is up. Impact: Inside-day break above 3.70 should target 3.74/3.78 first, then 3.82–3.86.

11. VWAP/Intraday microstructure

• Today’s session shows repeated responses around 3.65–3.67 and sellers capping 3.70. A reclaim and hold above 3.70 on 30–60 min closes shifts VWAP slope positive and invites momentum flows. Impact: Use 3.70 as trigger confirmation; best pricing still from a limit on minor pullbacks toward 3.66 if offered.

12. ADX/DI and Parabolic SAR (qualitative)

• ADX likely improving on the recent trend but cooling after the pullback; +DI > -DI on daily remains plausible.
• Parabolic SAR likely below price from the up leg; a further drop under 3.62 could flip it, but currently supports dip-buying bias. Impact: Trend-following systems remain net supportive while not overextended.

13. Market profile/POC (qualitative)

• Value developing around 3.60–3.70 with a Point of Control near ~3.67. Acceptance above POC + range high (3.70) often launches a move to the next high-volume node ~3.80–3.83. Impact: Aligns with the 24h upside path once 3.70 is secured.

Scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Hold 3.65–3.67, break/hold above 3.70 → stair-step to 3.74/3.78 → 3.82–3.86 by end of window. Close near 3.83 ± 0.03.
• Bearish alternative (30%): Lose 3.65 then 3.62 sweep → test 3.59 (50% fib). Bounce likely from 3.58–3.60 back to 3.66–3.69; net choppy.
• Tail risk (15%): Risk-off spill → 3.55 Kijun tap or 3.50/3.48 (61.8% vicinity + 1–1.25 ATR). Would invalidate the immediate bounce thesis.

Confluence summary

• Bullish: 38.2% fib support at spot, price above 20SMA, Ichimoku Kijun support below, RSI ~59 (headroom), constructive OBV, inside-day compression under a nearby pivot.
• Bearish risks: Supply at 3.70–3.78, weekend liquidity, recent bearish day could extend if 3.62 breaks.

Execution plan

• Preferred: Buy the dip with a limit near 3.662–3.668 (in the support band and near POC), looking for a push toward 3.84. Confirmation cue is an hourly close above 3.70 with rising volume. If no dip fills, a momentum add-on above 3.705 is acceptable but offers slightly worse R/R.
• Invalidation guide (not requested but crucial): A decisive breakdown through 3.620 increases probability we visit 3.59/3.55; avoid longs below that until a fresh base forms.

24h price prediction

• Expected range: 3.60–3.86, with a skew toward testing 3.82–3.86 if 3.70 is reclaimed. A stretch target on strong momentum: 3.89. Downside tail to 3.59 if 3.62 briefly fails.

Decision

• Direction: Buy (Long) from the 3.66 area, targeting a take-profit around 3.84 within the next 24 hours, assuming 3.62 support is respected.