SUI springs from the 3.11 floor: aiming for a 3.33 retest on a buy-the-dip setup

Step-by-step multi-framework analysis for Sui (SUI) — next 24 hours

1. Market structure and trend context

• Higher timeframe (Daily): From mid-July’s high (~4.43 on 7/27) SUI has been in a broad downtrend with lower highs and lower lows. The late-September leg accelerated lower into 9/25’s pivot low at 3.1088, followed by a modest rebound. Current daily close (3.2415) remains well below the 20-DMA, so the dominant higher-timeframe trend is still down, but short-term mean reversion is underway.
• Intermediate pivots: Recent swing sequence 9/18 high 3.8948 → 9/25 low 3.1088 marked a capitulation move; post-low, 9/26 closed green (3.2235), 9/27 small indecision (3.1801), 9/28 intraday push to 3.246. This looks like early recovery from a local bottom.
• Intraday (1H): Today built a series of higher lows from ~3.11–3.14 in the morning to ~3.19–3.21 by afternoon, then pushed to 3.246 around 20:00 UTC. Market structure on the 1H flipped to bullish (higher highs/higher lows) for the session.

2. Key price levels (support/resistance)

• Immediate supports: 3.209–3.212 (intraday pullback shelf), 3.195–3.200 (1H minor swing), 3.153–3.155 (9/27 S1), 3.108–3.113 (9/25–9/28 range floor).
• Immediate resistances: 3.256 (approx R2 from 9/27 pivots), 3.268 (61.8% retracement of 9/22 high 3.3647 → 9/25 low 3.1088), 3.287–3.32 (prior daily congestion; also near R3 ≈ 3.318), 3.408 (38.2% retrace of 9/18→9/25 big leg), 3.50 (50% of that leg).
• Value zone overhead: 3.30–3.36 is a high-volume/acceptance band from early September. Expect supply to emerge on first test.

3. Moving averages

• Daily 20-SMA ≈ 3.525 (approx calculation over last 20 closes). Price (3.2415) is ~8% below the 20-DMA — mean-reversion potential favors upward drift, but trend bias remains bearish while under it.
• Daily 50-SMA (rough, based on preceding data) sits higher (~3.70–3.80), confirming longer-term downtrend.
• 1H EMAs: Short EMAs (8/21) have crossed up and fanned out, consistent with the intraday upswing.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Likely mid-to-high 30s to low 40s after the 9/25 low; showing a small bullish divergence vs price (price made a lower low into 9/25, momentum less weak). This supports a bounce attempt, not a trend reversal yet.
• 1H RSI: Rising into the low 60s during the afternoon leg, confirming bullish intraday momentum; short-term overbought not severe yet.
• MACD (Daily): Histogram negative but contracting, potential bull cross in coming sessions if price holds above ~3.20–3.25. MACD (1H) is positive and rising.
• Stochastic (1H): Likely in bullish territory; risk of minor pullback from near-term overextension favors buy-the-dip entries.

5. Volatility and ranges

• Daily ATR(14) (approx): ~0.22–0.26. A 1x ATR move from 3.24 implies 3.46 on the upside, 3.02 on the downside, suggesting a 24h move of ~6–8% is within historical norms but would need momentum continuation.
• 1H Bollinger Bands: Expanded upward after a morning squeeze, with price now riding the upper half; a routine pullback toward the 20-period basis (roughly 3.20–3.21) would be a constructive long entry.
• Daily Bollinger Bands: With 20-DMA ~3.525, the lower band sits near the 3.06–3.15 region. The 9/25–9/28 action was a lower-band tag and bounce scenario.

6. Ichimoku

• Daily: Price below cloud, Tenkan and Kijun (Tenkan likely ~3.35–3.40; Kijun ~3.55–3.60). That’s bearish medium-term, but early signs of basing are visible. A test of Tenkan (~3.35–3.40) would align with our upside target zone for the next day.
• 1H: Price reclaimed Tenkan/Kijun with a bullish TK cross and is attempting to hold above/within a thin cloud. Forward cloud shows a mild bullish twist — supportive of a continuation toward 3.27–3.32 if support holds.

7. Fibonacci mapping

• 9/22 swing high 3.3647 → 9/25 low 3.1088: key retrace levels are 38.2% 3.206, 50% 3.2368, 61.8% 3.2677. Price has reclaimed the 50% (3.237) and is pushing toward 61.8% (3.268) — first resistance pocket.
• Micro swing (today): 3.1089 → 3.246 range = 0.1371. Projected extensions: 38.2% ≈ 3.298, 61.8% ≈ 3.331, 100% ≈ 3.383. This frames a logical 24h target zone at 3.30–3.33 if momentum persists.

8. Pivots (derived from 9/27 H/L/C)

• P ≈ 3.1915, R1 ≈ 3.2179, R2 ≈ 3.2556, R3 ≈ 3.318. Today’s move reclaimed P, traded above R1, and probed toward R2. The next logical magnet is R2 (3.256), then R3 (3.318). R3 aligns with value-area supply and Fib extension (~3.33), making it a prudent profit-taking zone.

9. Volume analytics

• 9/25’s selloff printed elevated volume (capitulation characteristics). The rebound has lower but steady participation — typical for relief bounces. Intraday, the 13:00–16:00 UTC window saw larger upticks in volume as price transitioned higher (bullish). OBV on 1H is curling up; no climactic blowoff noted near 3.24 yet.

10. VWAP and mean reversion

• Session VWAP estimate clusters near 3.18–3.20 after the morning base and afternoon expansion. Price at 3.24 is above VWAP, indicating trend day characteristics; pullbacks toward VWAP/anchored VWAP from 9/25 low would likely be bought on first test.

11. ADX/DI

• Daily ADX remains moderate with -DI still above +DI but narrowing; that often precedes countertrend rallies. 1H shows +DI > -DI with rising ADX, confirming upside intraday momentum strength.

12. Pattern readouts

• Daily candles: Potential early-stage basing after a lower-band tag (9/25). Sequence from 9/26–9/28 suggests a nascent morning-star-esque transition (not textbook) and a constructive stance as long as 3.19–3.21 holds.
• 1H: Steady staircase higher with shallow pullbacks; buyers defended each minor dip.

13. Keltner/Donchian

• Daily Keltner: Price near/below lower envelope last week; reversion toward centerline is typical; first meaningful checkpoint is 3.32–3.40. Donchian 20-day lower bound near 3.108; price has bounced off that boundary; mid-channel retest points north.

14. Elliott wave framing (tactical)

• From 3.108 low, today’s action resembles a 5-wave micro advance: i) 3.11→3.17, ii) 3.17→3.14, iii) 3.14→3.20+, iv) 3.20→3.19, v) 3.19→3.246. After a modest iv-v completion, a small ABC pullback to ~3.21–3.22 would be a textbook long continuation setup toward 3.30–3.33.

15. Scenario synthesis for the next 24 hours

• Base case (55%): Intraday uptrend persists. A dip to 3.21–3.22 (R1/pullback/VWAP zone) gets bought, and price grinds through 3.256 (R2) toward 3.30–3.33 (pivot R3 and 61.8% micro extension). Target zone: 3.318–3.331.
• Neutral churn (25%): Price oscillates between 3.20–3.27, building acceptance under first resistance. This still favors range trades buying ~3.20 and selling ~3.26–3.27.
• Bear risk (20%): If 3.195 breaks decisively, momentum fades and price revisits 3.15–3.16; a further break opens 3.11–3.12 retest. This would invalidate the tactical long idea.

16. Trade plan logic (tactical, 24h)

• Bias: Buy-the-dip within a short-term uptrend against supportive intraday structure, aiming for the 3.31–3.33 supply pocket below heavier daily resistance at 3.35–3.40.
• Entry: Optimal on a pullback to the 1H support confluence near 3.218 (just above prior R1 and close to session basis). This captures superior risk-reward vs chasing 3.24–3.25.
• Take-profit: 3.318–3.331 zone. I will set 3.328 to front-run sellers at the R3/Fib confluence.
• Invalidation/stop (for risk management, informational): 3.187 (below 1H structure and under the 3.195 shelf). Risk from 3.218 to 3.187 ≈ 0.031; reward to 3.328 ≈ 0.110 → R:R ≈ 3.5:1.

17. Why not short here?

• Despite the macro downtrend, the 1H structure and oscillator alignment favor continuation higher first. Overhead supply is real, but the path of least resistance intra-day appears upward into 3.30–3.33 before any larger sellers likely re-engage. A short is more attractive near 3.33–3.40 with fresh evidence of rejection.

18. Summary

• Daily trend: down; short-term: up. Multiple tools (1H MA alignment, RSI/MACD, VWAP support, Fib recapture of 50% toward 61.8%, pivot progression from R1→R2→R3) argue for a continuation push into 3.31–3.33 in the next 24 hours, provided 3.195 holds. That supports a tactical buy-the-dip with defined risk.

Prediction (24h): Expect a pullback toward ~3.21–3.22, then a grind higher to 3.30–3.33; failure below 3.195 delays/invalidates and risks 3.15/3.11 retests.