SUI springs from capitulation: targeting 2.98 as momentum challenges the 2.90 Fib wall

Sui (SUI) – 24h Trading Plan and Technical Deep-Dive

Overview and context

• Current price: 2.8528
• Regime shift: A sharp capitulation on 2025-10-10 (intraday low ~0.95, close 2.6006) broke the multi-week 3.1–3.6 range, followed by stabilization around 2.50–2.55 and a strong intraday breakout today to 2.86. This looks like a post-liquidation relief rally within a broader downtrend.
• Objective: Identify if momentum can extend toward psychological 3.00 and key retracement levels, or if 2.90–3.00 supply caps the bounce in the next 24 hours.

Multi-timeframe trend assessment

• Daily trend: Down since late July’s 4.4 swing. A series of lower highs/lows through September; decisive breakdown on Oct 10. Current bounce is the first strong green impulse after the flush, typical of a mean-reversion + short-covering rally, but still below major MAs and prior value (bearish bigger picture, bullish short-term impulse).
• 4H/1H structure (using hourly feed as proxy):
  • A basing phase around 2.45–2.55 through 13:00 (UTC), clean breakout at 14:00 to 2.62, follow-through to 2.73–2.86. Higher highs and higher lows established; shallow pullbacks indicate strong dip buying.
  • Last hours closed near high-of-day; closing strong tends to see continuation early next session if no external shock.

Support and resistance (confluence levels)

• Immediate resistance: 2.897–2.905 (Fibo 38.2% retrace of 3.623–2.45 leg, round-trip supply); 2.95; 3.00 (round number); then 3.03–3.06 (50% retrace), 3.17–3.20 (61.8% retrace and prior range floor), 3.26–3.35 (late-Sep congestion).
• Immediate support: 2.82–2.80 (prior intraday resistance turned support; micro demand); 2.77–2.74 (16:00–18:00 consolidation shelf); 2.65 (gap in momentum); 2.60 (Oct 10 close); deeper: 2.50–2.55 (basing zone).

Moving averages (approximate, daily)

• 20-day SMA ≈ 3.25–3.30: price is below – bearish bias on higher timeframe.
• 50-day SMA ≈ 3.55–3.65: well above – overhead supply heavy.
• 200-day SMA likely higher (not computed exactly) – broader trend remains down. Interpretation: Short-term bounce against the downtrend; rallies into 3.0–3.3 likely encounter supply.

Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI (est.): Rebounded from oversold low-30s to mid/high-30s or low-40s. Room to move higher before overbought on daily, favoring continuation of relief.
• 1H RSI: Likely 65–75 after the breakout; strong but susceptible to brief mean reversion to reset (supporting a buy-the-dip approach vs. chasing highs).
• Stochastic 1H: Likely embedded in overbought territory; when trending, this can remain pinned while price grinds higher.

MACD

• Daily: MACD line deeply negative but curling up; histogram contracting toward zero – early-stage bullish momentum inflection typical after capitulation.
• 1H: Bullish cross earlier in the session; histogram positive and expanding into the breakout – supports continuation with small pullbacks.

Volatility and bands

• ATR (daily): Expanded sharply post-crash (est. 0.35–0.55). Today’s range 2.50 → 2.86 (~0.36) is within expanded ATR, leaving room for a 2.75–3.00 travel in 24h.
• Bollinger Bands (daily): Bands widened on the selloff; price bouncing from lower band toward middle band (20SMA), which sits much higher (~3.25). Reversion forces favor upside attempts but overhead MBB resistance still far.
• Bollinger Bands (1H): Band expansion following a squeeze; price riding upper band – trend continuation possible but expect brief tags of the mid-band on dips (ideal entries).
• Keltner Channels (1H, implied): Breakout above upper KC suggests strong trend; mean reversion dips to EMA basis are buyable within current momentum phase.

Volume, OBV, and participation

• Daily volume: Spike on Oct 10 (capitulation) followed by sustained elevated activity. Today’s intraday volume rose meaningfully during the 14:00–17:00 breakout window – classic short-covering + momentum ignition signature.
• OBV (inferred): Turned up decisively intraday; confirms price advance with volume support. Interpretation: Participation supports the bounce; sustained bids into resistance raise odds of testing 2.90–2.95.

Fibonacci mapping (swing high 3.623 → swing low 2.45)

• 23.6%: ~2.725 – already reclaimed, acting as support zone on pullbacks.
• 38.2%: ~2.897 – near-term ceiling; first major test just overhead.
• 50%: ~3.036 – aligns with psychological 3.00; magnet if 2.90 breaks.
• 61.8%: ~3.174 – strong supply if 3.00/3.03 is cleared in the next legs (likely beyond 24h unless momentum accelerates).

Ichimoku (heuristic)

• 1H: Price > cloud, Tenkan > Kijun, Lagging Span likely above price – bullish short-term structure; Kijun around 2.77–2.80 area, consistent with ideal dip-buy zone.
• Daily: Price still below cloud and Kijun; cloud thick overhead between ~3.2–3.6 – higher timeframe resistance intact.

Chart patterns and microstructure

• Base-breakout sequence: Consolidation 2.45–2.55, breakout to 2.62, measured move met; subsequent stair-step to 2.73–2.86.
• Emerging bull flag on 1H between ~2.78–2.86; break above 2.86–2.90 projects to ~2.95–3.00 short-term.
• Liquidity dynamics: The Oct 10 sweep likely cleared downside liquidity; current rally feasts on thin overhead liquidity until encountering the heavy September volume nodes ~3.1–3.3.

Wyckoff lens

• Potential Phase D of accumulation on intraday scale (after a spring-like event on Oct 10). Sign of Strength seen today; LPS (Last Point of Support) likely on a dip into 2.80–2.82 if offered.

Elliott wave sketch (intra-day)

• Wave 1: 2.46 → 2.62; Wave 2: pullback; Wave 3: 2.62 → 2.86; Now likely a shallow Wave 4 flag toward 2.80–2.82; Wave 5 objective: 2.95–3.00. Invalid if 2.74 breaks decisively in the next few hours.

VWAP and Anchored VWAP (qualitative)

• AVWAP from the Oct 10 capitulation low would be well below price; price above intraday VWAP since the 14:00 ignition confirms buyers in control on the session. Pullbacks toward session VWAP should attract bids (location near 2.80–2.82 after adjustment).

Risk scenarios (next 24h)

• Bullish continuation (prob. ~60%): Break/hold above 2.90 (38.2% Fib) opens 2.95, then a test toward 3.00–3.03 (50% Fib). Likely intraday overshoots but sellers defend 3.00–3.06 initially.
• Range and mean reversion (prob. ~25%): Reject 2.90 on first attempt, dip to 2.80–2.82 for reset, then second push to 2.90–2.95 late in the window.
• Bearish relapse (prob. ~15%): Failure at 2.90 followed by loss of 2.78–2.80 shelf, sliding to 2.65–2.70; tail risk revisit 2.60 if broader market weakens.

Trade plan logic

• Edge: Short-term momentum + post-capitulation mean reversion favors buying controlled pullbacks rather than chasing. Confluence for entry at 2.80–2.82: prior intraday resistance turned support, hourly mid-band/EMA zone, Ichimoku Kijun vicinity, and VWAP proximity.
• Targeting: First objective under round-number and Fib confluence for high fill probability: 2.98 (beneath 3.00/3.03 wall). If momentum is exceptional, extension wicks may print 3.00–3.03, but 2.98 is a prudent take-profit.
• Invalidation (risk control guidance, not part of order fields): A decisive hourly close below 2.74 weakens the structure; below 2.65 the setup is likely compromised.

24h price path expectation

• Anticipated intraday path: Early probe of 2.90; if rejected, fade to 2.82±0.02, buyers step in, second leg attempts 2.95–2.98. If 2.90 breaks cleanly early with volume, pullback may be shallow (2.85–2.87) and acceleration to 2.97–3.00 follows.

Decision and execution

• Bias: Buy the dip within 2.80–2.82 zone for a push into 2.95–3.00.
• Open Price (optimal): 2.8200 (limit buy at support).
• Close Price (take-profit): 2.9800 (beneath round number and 50% retrace cluster at ~3.03).
• Rationale: Maximizes reward while respecting nearby resistance, anchored to a high-probability dip zone with strong momentum context and supportive volume.