SUI coiled under $3.00: Momentum primed for a 3.10–3.22 breakout run

Summary view

• Timeframe focus: next 24 hours (intraday to 1-day swing)
• Current price: 2.9881
• Market state: Post-flash-crash rebound with short-term momentum up, testing a major psychological lid at 3.00 with rising intraday lows and improving breadth. Overhead supply remains heavy in the 3.10–3.40 zone from the pre-crash regime.
• Base case: Break and hold above 3.00 opens a push into 3.10–3.22. Pullbacks likely find bids first at 2.92–2.95 and deeper at 2.84–2.88.

1. Price action and structure

• Regime shift: On 2025-10-10, SUI printed an extreme range (H 3.477, L 0.950, C 2.6006), a capitulation bar. Follow-through showed stabilization (10-11 C 2.5450), then a constructive bullish session (10-12 C 2.8134) and a strong intraday advance today to ~3.01.
• Sequence of higher lows (intraday, 10-13): ~2.81 → 2.84 → 2.86–2.87 → 2.918 → 2.971, signaling demand absorption and a stair-step uptrend.
• Key levels:
  • Resistance: 3.00–3.01 (psych + intraday high), 3.10–3.13 (R2 pivot, supply shelf), 3.20–3.30 (prior daily consolidation, 9/29–10/02 zone), 3.40–3.65 (20D supply belt, pre-crash).
  • Support: 2.95–2.92 (intraday breakout retest), 2.88–2.84 (hourly basing), 2.81 (today’s fib-respected pullback), 2.75 (deeper).
• Candlestick context (daily):
  • 10-10: Wide-range capitulation close well below open → bear exhaustion candidate.
  • 10-11: Small real body near lows → indecision/doji-like stabilization.
  • 10-12: Bullish follow-through closing near highs → confirms buy-the-dip interest.
  • Today (in progress): Continuation attempt pressing the 3.00 lid.

2. Classical pivots and Fibonacci

• Classic pivots from 10-12 (H 2.8676, L 2.4483, C 2.8134):
  • P ≈ 2.7098, R1 ≈ 2.9713, R2 ≈ 3.1291, S1 ≈ 2.552, S2 ≈ 2.2905.
  • Price has tagged R1 (~2.97) and is attempting a breakout toward R2 (~3.13). This aligns with the 3.10–3.13 resistance cluster.
• Fib retracement of the post-crash thrust (10-11 L 2.4978 to 10-13 H 3.0093):
  • Range ≈ 0.5115; 38.2% pullback from H ≈ 2.8139; 61.8% ≈ 2.693.
  • Intraday pullbacks respected ~2.81 (38.2%), indicating strong trend adherence.
• Larger swing context (10-10 L 0.95 to 10-13 H 3.01):
  • Deep retracement already realized; room remains to 3.13–3.22 before encountering thick overhead supply from September’s value area.

3. Moving averages (approximations from provided closes)

• 7D MA ≈ 3.05 (estimated from last 7 closes). Spot (2.99) is approaching but not decisively above; a close >3.05 would confirm short-term trend inflection.
• 20D MA likely in the 3.3–3.5 band given September’s 3.3–3.7 cluster; price remains below medium-term trend, consistent with “bear regime, bullish corrective rally.”
• Intraday MAs (hourly) slope up; price is trading above short MAs, consistent with continuation attempts.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI (qualitative):
  • Daily RSI likely rebounded from oversold to the mid-40s/low-50s range; room to run before classic overbought.
  • Hourly RSI likely high-50s to mid-60s with “bullish range shift,” matching the series of higher lows and closes near session highs.
• MACD:
  • Hourly: Positive cross and histogram expansion post 2.81 pullback; momentum strength bias up.
  • Daily: Lagging but curling up; awaiting a signal-line cross in coming sessions if follow-through persists.

5. Volatility and ATR context

• Post-crash ATR expanded sharply (10-10 daily range ~2.53). It has been normalizing: 10-11 (≈0.31), 10-12 (≈0.42). Expect elevated but manageable intraday ranges next 24h: typical band ~0.20–0.35.
• Expected 24h distribution: 2.85–3.15 as the 1σ envelope, with tails into 2.80 and 3.22 if momentum accelerates.

6. Bollinger Bands (qualitative)

• Daily bands widened materially after the crash; price is crawling up the upper half. On hourly, price rides or taps the upper band into 3.00, reflecting trend persistence with a risk of short pullbacks toward mid-band (~2.92–2.95) before extension.

7. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: Price likely still below the Kumo cloud; conversion line (Tenkan) turning up and above base (Kijun) or close to flipping; lagging span still under price but improving. Interpretation: bear regime with budding bullish correction.
• Hourly: Price above cloud with rising Tenkan/Kijun; pullbacks toward Kijun (~2.92–2.95 est.) are buyable while cloud remains supportive.

8. Volume/flow diagnostics

• Elevated post-crash volumes on up sessions suggest accumulation against forced-selling overhang.
• Intraday today: Rising volume on pushes from 2.84 → 2.99; pullback volumes lighter. Constructive.

9. Market profile/structure

• Value building between 2.80 and 2.95; point of control likely ~2.88–2.92 based on repeated retests. Acceptance above 2.95/3.00 would shift value higher and invite tests of 3.10–3.22 supply.

10. Pattern analysis

• Intraday bull flag: Consolidations around 2.84–2.87 and 2.90–2.92 before next legs higher; final micro-flag below 3.00 suggests imminent breakout or at least a stop-run above round-number.
• Post-capitulation reversal stack: hammer-like capitulation day → basing → higher-low structure. Classic V-plus-basing.

11. Elliott wave (heuristic)

• Labeling the rebound: 1) 2.545 → ~2.89; 2) pullback to ~2.81; 3) extension to ~3.00 ongoing. A fifth wave push could target 3.13–3.22 before a larger corrective wave.

12. Confluence map (why 3.10–3.22 matters)

• R2 pivot ≈ 3.13.
• Prior daily value area lower edge around 3.20–3.30 (late Sep).
• Psychological round numbers at 3.10 and 3.20.
• If 3.00 breaks, momentum algorithms likely chase into this pocket, but heavy supply expected near/above 3.20.

13. Risk factors and invalidations

• Immediate risk: Failure to sustain above 2.95 after a breakout → shove back into 2.88–2.84 value; losing 2.84 opens a quick slide toward 2.75.
• Event risk: Post-crash headline aftershocks can spike volatility. Manage with stop discipline.
• Medium-term headwind: 20D trend still down; rallies into 3.30–3.50 may meet strong selling.

14. Scenario probabilities (subjective)

• Bullish continuation to 3.10–3.22: 55%.
• Sideways chop 2.90–3.05: 30%.
• Bear break to 2.84–2.75: 15%.

15. Trade plan (next 24h)

• Bias: Buy the breakout or buy-the-dip in the 2.92–2.96 zone; momentum and structure favor an upside attempt through 3.00.
• Entry tactics:
  • Momentum entry: Stop-limit buy above 3.01–3.02 to avoid head-fakes below the round number.
  • Pullback entry: Limit buy 2.94–2.96 on a drift back to intraday VWAP/mid-band.
• Target: 3.20–3.22 (confluence of R2 extension/overhead supply). Conservative traders can scale at 3.10.
• Risk control (not requested but prudent): Stop below 2.88 (recent micro-swing base) for momentum entry, giving ~0.14 downside vs ~0.18–0.20 upside to 3.20–3.22.

16. 24-hour price path expectation

• Ideal path: A brief backfill toward 2.95–2.97, then a 3.00 breakout, impulse to 3.10, consolidation 3.05–3.12, and a second push to 3.18–3.22. Fallback path: Rejection at 3.00 leads to 2.90–2.92 test; buyers likely defend unless risk-off returns.

Conclusion

• The post-crash rebound is behaving constructively with improving intraday trend, supportive pivots, and momentum that typically resolves higher through the first major round-number cap. The risk-reward favors a tactical long aimed at 3.20–3.22 within the next 24 hours, provided 2.88–2.92 supports hold on dips.