SUI: Sell the Rally into 2.55–2.62 — Bear-Market Bounce Likely to Fade Within 24 Hours

SUI 24-hour trading game plan — deep-dive, multi-lens read

Summary view

• Primary trend (daily): Bearish. Sequence of lower highs and lower lows since early September, followed by a large liquidation break on Oct 10 that forced price decisively below all major moving averages.
• Short-term (1–24h): Countertrend bounce from 2.29–2.30 low into 2.50 area with intraday higher lows, but overhead supply thickens into 2.55–2.62. Expect a test of that zone and a fade unless bulls recapture 2.62–2.68 quickly.
• Bias for next 24h: Sideways-to-up early into resistance, then likely rejection. Tactical short-on-strength favored.

1. Price action and structure

• July–Aug: Distribution between roughly 3.3–4.4, failed August breakout, then a steady bleed.
• September: Lower highs around 3.9 → 3.7 → 3.62 with deteriorating closes. Breakdown through 3.26 late Sept, tepid bounce to early Oct highs near 3.62 before the hard flush.
• Oct 10: Capitulative down-bar (close 2.60) with an extreme intraday wick to 0.95 (likely a liquidity event). The working swing low for structure is 2.29 (Oct 17), not the wick.
• Current: From 2.29–2.30, price has put in a modest series of higher lows intraday (2.42 → 2.44 → 2.46), lifting to 2.50–2.51. This resembles a bear-flag/weak ascending channel under major resistance.

2. Key levels (confluence-driven)

• Supports: 2.42–2.44 (intraday shelf), 2.30–2.31 (swing low), 2.18 (classic S2 pivot), psychological 2.00.
• Resistances: 2.55–2.62 (dense supply: classic R1 at ~2.55, 23.6% Fib at ~2.62, prior post-crash closing pivot 2.60), then 2.66–2.72 (R2 ~2.67, 4h MA cluster), 2.82–2.85 (38.2% Fib), 2.99–3.00 (50% Fib).

3. Moving averages (approximations from the provided daily closes)

• 5D SMA ≈ 2.69; price 2.50 is below → near-term trend still down.
• 20D SMA ≈ ~3.1–3.2; 50D ≈ ~3.4; price is well below both → dominant bearish regime.
• 1h EMAs (8/21/55): Price trading around/above the short EMAs intraday, but all sit well below the daily MA stack → room for intraday rallies to fail into higher-timeframe resistance.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI: Rebounded from oversold, likely mid-30s to very low-40s; still bearish regime, but not capitulation anymore. Room exists to tag 2.55–2.62 without overbought.
• 1h RSI: High-50s/low-60s with emerging bearish divergence (price marginally higher to 2.509 while RSI momentum less enthusiastic). That often precedes intraday pullbacks/rejections at resistance.
• Stochastics daily: Lifting from sub-20 to low/mid band; typical of bounce phases inside downtrends.

5. MACD

• Daily: MACD below zero, histogram contracting (bearish momentum waning). A turn is possible, but signal remains below the axis (trend still bearish).
• 1h: MACD above zero but flattening — consistent with a near-term stall beneath resistance.

6. Bollinger Bands

• Daily 20SMA well above price; lower band around ~2.35–2.40, price rebounded off that area. Sitting in the lower half of the bands suggests rallies likely fade before mean reversion to the 20SMA.
• 1h bands: Price hugging upper band 2.50–2.51 earlier; a tag of upper band near 2.55–2.58 on continuation is plausible before mean reversion.

7. Ichimoku

• Daily: Price below cloud, Tenkan < Kijun, future cloud bearish — trend filter remains short.
• 4h/1h: Price approaching the underside of the cloud/Kijun around 2.56–2.62 — classic rejection zone in bear phases. A decisive 1h/4h close above 2.62–2.68 would weaken the short edge.

8. Volume, OBV, and market profile read

• Volume: Peak on crash day, then decaying — typical of a post-liquidation bounce and indecision. Lack of strong follow-through buy volume so far.
• OBV: Stabilizing, not trending up — suggests demand is insufficient to reverse the bigger downtrend.
• Volume-at-Price (inferred): Acceptance developing near 2.48–2.52; low-volume pocket from ~2.58–2.62 may act as a quick tag and rejection zone; heavier supply expected near 2.62–2.68.

9. VWAPs

• Anchored VWAP from Oct 10 likely sits above spot (est. mid/high 2.6s) — acts as dynamic resistance on first tests.
• Session VWAP (today) near 2.48–2.49; price currently a bit above, so a reversion to VWAP is a common path after tagging resistance.

10. Fibonacci mapping (using the realistic swing: pre-crash high to post-crash low)

• Swing high: early Oct area ~3.69; swing low: 2.29. Range ≈ 1.40.
• 23.6%: ~2.62 (first bounce target)
• 38.2%: ~2.83 (deeper squeeze level if 2.62 breaks)
• 50%: ~2.99; 61.8%: ~3.15.
• Current price below 23.6%: Bulls have yet to reclaim even the shallow retracement → bounces are suspect until >2.62.

11. Pivots (Classic, from Oct 17 H/L/C ≈ 2.538/2.294/2.439)

• P ≈ 2.424; R1 ≈ 2.554; R2 ≈ 2.668; S1 ≈ 2.309; S2 ≈ 2.179.
• This adds confluence: 2.55–2.62 is loaded with R1 + Fib cluster + cloud underside + anchored VWAP area.

12. Candles and microstructure (hourly stream provided)

• Hours show persistent but shallow bid from 2.44 to 2.50–2.51, with small-bodied candles and occasional upper wicks — sign of supply on approach to resistance.
• 17:00–20:00 UTC upticks had limited volume; subsequent prints stalled near 2.50–2.51, consistent with a pause before testing 2.55–2.60 or rolling over.

13. Volatility regime

• Daily ATR(14) expanded post-crash, normalizing around ~0.17–0.22. From 2.50, a ±0.18 move projects 2.32–2.68 in 24h, aligning with our target/invalidations.

14. Elliott wave framing (tactical)

• Down-impulse likely culminated in a capitulation (wave 3/5). The current lift looks like an ABC corrective bounce. In such cases, the A/B/C often terminates near 23.6–38.2% (2.62–2.83). Expect sellers to defend 2.60–2.62 on first test.

15. Scenario map for next 24 hours

• Base case (55–60%): Price pushes into 2.55–2.62, stalls, and fades back toward 2.46–2.48, potentially closing near 2.48–2.52.
• Bull outlier (25%): Clean break and 1h/4h close above 2.62; squeeze toward 2.68–2.72; if momentum persists, extension to 2.82–2.85.
• Bear outlier (15–20%): Immediate failure from 2.50 area back to 2.42–2.44; if 2.42 cracks, accelerate to 2.31.

16. Trade thesis and risk

• Thesis: The dominant daily trend is down; the current rally is corrective into a dense confluence of resistance 2.55–2.62. Momentum on the hourly is waning; probability favors a rejection and mean reversion.
• Entry logic: Use a patient sell limit into resistance rather than chasing at 2.50 — improves R/R and aligns with confluence.
• Invalidation: Strong reclaim and hold above 2.62–2.68 (anchored VWAP + R2 + underside cloud). A 1h/4h close above ~2.69 invalidates the immediate short idea.

Actionable plan (next 24h)

• Trade type: Sell (short) on strength.
• Entry: 2.60 (limit). This sits inside the 2.55–2.62 supply and slightly above R1 to increase fill probability.
• Take profit (TP): 2.46 (above the 2.42–2.44 support shelf to front-run bids). Secondary extension (not in the structured output) could be 2.40 if momentum accelerates.
• Suggested stop (for risk control, not part of required output): 2.69. That’s just above the Fib 23.6% breach zone and the R2 band, where the probability flips toward a squeeze.
• Indicative R/R: (2.60 – 2.46) / (2.69 – 2.60) ≈ 0.14 / 0.09 ≈ 1.55x. Acceptable given trend alignment and confluence.

Bottom line

• Expect an early test of 2.55–2.62. Unless bulls decisively reclaim 2.62–2.68, the higher-probability outcome is a rejection and drift back to the mid-2.40s. Tactical short is favored with tight invalidation.