SUI: Short the Lower-High — Targeting a Sweep to 2.34 (and Possibly 2.30) Within 24 Hours

SUI multi-timeframe technical breakdown and 24h trading plan

1. Market context and structure

• Regime: Post-crash redistribution. On 2025-10-10 SUI printed an extreme liquidation wick (low ~0.95) and quickly rebalanced into the 2.5–3.0 range. Since the 10/13 rebound high (~2.99), price has carved a sequence of lower highs and lower lows; momentum has deteriorated into late October.
• Current: 2.408 (near intraday and daily support), following a steady intraday drift lower from yesterday’s 2.66 spike and failure.
• Bias: Short-term bearish within a broader, still-corrective phase after the post-wick rebound. Rallies are being sold; supports are being probed with increasing frequency.

2. Key levels (confluence from price action, pivots, Fibs)

• Resistance • 2.49–2.50: Prior intraday supply (10/21–10/22) and round number; hourly LH cluster. • 2.56–2.58: Breakdown shelf and heavy supply from 10/20–10/21 session; near yesterday’s pivot P≈2.548 and R1≈2.623. • 2.61–2.67: Failed breakout zone from 10/21 14:00–16:00 UTC; rejection led to trend resumption down.
• Support • 2.40–2.41: Intraday S1 cluster; today’s local low ~2.4016; matches classic S1 from 10/21 (S1≈2.413). • 2.33–2.34: Classic S2 for today (~2.338) and micro demand from 10/17–10/18 rotation. • 2.29–2.30: Swing low 10/17 (~2.2936) and psychological round-number.

3. Volatility and pivots (next 24h range)

• Yesterday’s H/L/C: H≈2.6827, L≈2.4726, C≈2.4897 → Classic pivots for today: • P≈2.548, R1≈2.623, R2≈2.758, R3≈2.834; S1≈2.413, S2≈2.338, S3≈2.203.
• ATR (daily, recent): ~0.18–0.22. A 24h swing from 2.41 down toward 2.33–2.29 is statistically feasible within one ATR.

4. Moving averages (trend filter)

• 5D SMA ≈ 2.52 (approx). Price < 5D → short-term bearish.
• 10D SMA ≈ 2.64 (approx). Price < 10D → medium-term bearish.
• 20D SMA estimated ≈ 3.0–3.2 given earlier month prints. Price well below the 20D base and likely hugging lower Bollinger; trend pressure remains down.
• Hourly EMAs (visual inference from structure): price trading below 20/50/200H clusters after yesterday’s lower-high failure, consistent with continued downside pressure.

5. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Likely mid-30s to high-30s after multi-session declines. Not deeply oversold; room to drift lower, but near a zone where bounces can occur.
• Hourly RSI: Hovering ~30–40; frequent bear-range behavior (RSI peaks failing to clear 60). Suggests rallies will likely cap early.
• Stochastics (hourly): Bleeds near oversold with shallow resets; typical of trend days lower where resets get sold.

6. MACD and trend strength

• Daily MACD: Below signal, negative histogram expanding on recent down-leg from ~2.99 to ~2.40. Bear momentum intact.
• Hourly MACD: Bearish with weak/breakeven cross attempts rejected near 2.50; intraday impulses down remain stronger than recoveries.

7. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Daily: Price skirting the lower band with the mid-band far above (~3.1 est.). In downtrends, lower-band walks are common. Expect minor bounces but continuation risk persists until a decisive reclaim of the mid-band.
• Hourly: Bands are opening modestly as volatility returns; price pressing the lower band following each small rally failure.

8. Ichimoku (daily)

• Price below Kumo; Tenkan and Kijun overhead; Chikou likely below price and cloud. Full bearish alignment; any bounce into the Tenkan/Kijun area should meet supply.

9. Fibonacci mapping

• Intraday (today’s session): High ~2.501, low ~2.402. Key retracements from low: 38.2% ≈ 2.439, 50% ≈ 2.451, 61.8% ≈ 2.463. Expect sellers to defend 2.439–2.463 on a bounce.
• Swing: From 10/13 high 2.99 to 10/17 low 2.294, 38.2% recovery ~2.559 (capped), 61.8% ~2.724 (never achieved). Structure remains corrective-lower.

10. Price action patterns

• 4H/1H: Descending channel / bear flag breakdown from the 2.66 lower-high (10/21 15:00). Each bounce is producing lower highs, consistent with a short-the-rip environment.
• Candle character: Lower wicks at 2.40 hint at sticky support; however, re-tests are frequent—a hallmark of pending liquidity sweep below 2.40 toward 2.33–2.30.

11. Volume/flow context

• Post-10/10 crash, volume remained elevated on down days and mixed on up days, a distribution signature. Yesterday’s push to 2.66 saw follow-through sellers and heavy rejection. Intraday today, upticks are on lighter volume; downlegs on stronger prints—bearish imbalance.

12. Liquidity/stop-mapping

• Below market: Obvious liquidity under 2.40; then 2.35 and the prior swing low ~2.293. A sweep toward 2.33–2.30 could attract buyers, but only after stops are cleared.
• Above market: Resting offers around 2.44–2.46 (intraday Fib/EMA confluence), 2.49–2.50, and heavier supply 2.56–2.58.

13. Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (bearish continuation, 55–60%): Early bounce stalls ~2.439–2.463 (Fib 38.2–61.8), then roll-over to S2 zone 2.33–2.34; spike risk to 2.30 if momentum accelerates.
• Alternative (mean-reversion pop, 25–30%): Push toward 2.49–2.50, possibly tagging 2.53; likely sold unless reclaim >2.58 with volume.
• Low-probability squeeze (10–15%): Strong bid clears 2.58, opening 2.62–2.67 retest; would neutralize the immediate short thesis.

14. Risk management and trade design

• Trade location: Favor short entries on a retracement into 2.439–2.463. This sells into resistance with tight invalidation.
• Invalidation (guidance): Sustained reclaim above 2.50 weakens the setup; a hard stop above ~2.56–2.58 (supply shelf) is prudent for strict risk control.
• Profit-taking: First target near S2 (2.338) to front-run bids; extension target 2.31–2.30 if momentum/volume expand.
• Timeframe: Within a 24h window and given ATR, the 2.34 handle is the most realistic base target; pushing to 2.30 requires stronger risk-off tape.

15. Synthesis

• Confluence of: lower-high sequence, price < short/medium MAs, negative MACD, bear-range RSI, resistance layers overhead, and pivot structure below P and near S1 suggest selling bounces remains optimal. Expect an intraday rally attempt into 2.44–2.46 followed by continuation toward 2.34 and potentially 2.31–2.30.

Conclusion: Short the lower-high. Optimal entry around 2.439 (Fib 38.2% retrace of today’s range and prior micro-supply). Primary 24h target 2.339 (near S2) with potential extension lower if momentum persists. Manage risk above 2.56–2.58 if taken.