SUI: Buy the Dip for a 2.71 Break — Targeting Pivot R1 in the Next 24 Hours

SUI — Multi-timeframe Technical Playbook (next 24 hours)

Executive read: After a 5-day recovery from 2.38 to 2.71, SUI is consolidating just under local resistance (2.70–2.72). Short-term momentum remains constructive while the higher-timeframe trend is still down. Expect a shallow dip into 2.64–2.62 (liquidity sweep) followed by a re-attack of 2.71. A clean break/hold above 2.71 opens 2.74–2.76 (pivot R1/near-term measured target). Invalidation for the bullish intraday thesis sits below ~2.59–2.57 (Fib/Kijun/structure confluence).

1. Price Action & Market Structure

• Daily trend: Macro still corrective (lower highs since August), but a short-term upswing is underway from the 10/22 low (2.383) to yesterday’s 2.6757 close and today’s intraday high 2.715.
• Intraday trend (1h): Series of higher lows since 10/22; latest micro swing: 2.647 → 2.715 → 2.655. Structure intact while above ~2.62–2.64.
• Pattern: Ascending triangle/bull flag under 2.71–2.72. Horizontal supply: 2.71. Rising demand base: 2.62–2.65.
• Liquidity map: Resting stops likely sit below 2.64 and 2.62; upside liquidity above 2.71 and 2.75. Expect wick-down into 2.64–2.62 before upside attempt.

2. Key Levels (confluence)

• Immediate support: 2.64–2.65 (rising trendline/1h base), 2.62 (VWAP proximity sweep zone), 2.60–2.59 (intraday shelf), 2.57–2.55 (Fib 50% area), 2.52 (structural shelf), 2.44 (daily S2/protective last resort), 2.38 (swing low).
• Immediate resistance: 2.70–2.72 (1h supply/local high cluster), 2.74–2.76 (pivot R1/near-term measured move), 2.78–2.83 (prior daily distribution shelf), 2.90–3.00 (psychological/20D SMA area).

3. Momentum & Oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): ≈42 (calculated from the provided closes). Rising from near-oversold; momentum improving but below 50 (still in bear regime on daily, with room to mean-revert higher).
• 1h RSI: Cooled from strong to neutral with the pullback to 2.65; supports a buy-the-dip approach rather than chasing.
• MACD (daily): Still below zero, but histogram improving (momentum inflecting). A cross toward zero would align with a push to 2.74–2.80.
• Stoch/RSI (inferred 1h): Resetting from overbought to midrange—often conducive to continuation after consolidation.

4. Trend & Averages

• Short-term MAs (5–10 EMA, 1h/daily): Price trades above fast EMAs on 1h and reclaimed short EMAs daily; constructive for a tactical long.
• 20D SMA (approx): ~2.9–3.0 given the pre-crash prints; price is below it, so the 20D acts as overhead resistance on extensions (limits upside beyond ~2.80–3.00 in 24h).
• 50D/200D (directional): Likely above current price; higher-timeframe downtrend remains. This argues for taking profits on strength rather than marrying a long.

5. Volatility & Bands

• Bollinger Bands (daily, 20,2): Lower band expanded by the 10/10 crash; current price sits below the mid-band (≈2.9), with scope for mean reversion toward it in the coming sessions. Near-term, move toward upper-intraday bands (2.72–2.76) is feasible.
• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~0.30–0.35 after smoothing the crash bar. 24h expected range from 2.66 is ~2.33–2.99 (broad), but practical intraday focus is 2.60–2.76 barring a surprise catalyst.

6. Volume & Flow

• OBV/Accumulation (qualitative): From 10/22 low, successive up days (10/23–10/26) with respectable volume show net accumulation.
• Hourly profile: Notable volume build around 2.63–2.66 (value area). Buyers defended dips; sellers active into 2.70–2.71.
• VWAP (today, rough): ~2.68. Current price ~2.655 trades just below VWAP—often where dip-buys initiate during an intact intraday uptrend.

7. Ichimoku (contextual)

• Daily: Price above Tenkan (~2.55–2.60) but below Kijun (~2.9) and cloud (bearish higher-timeframe, bullish tactical). Pullbacks to Tenkan zone typically get bought in early trend repair.
• 1h: Price oscillating near/barely above the cloud; Kijun ~2.67. A reclaim of 2.67–2.68 should re-accelerate momentum toward 2.71.

8. Fibonacci Mapping (swing 2.383 → 2.715)

• 38.2%: 2.588
• 50%: 2.549
• 61.8%: 2.510 Current pullback is shallow (bullish). A deeper, healthy retrace would likely stall 2.59–2.55. Using this, the optimal buy zone is 2.64–2.62 with contingency adds into 2.59–2.57 if wicked.

9. Pivot Points (derived from 10/26 H/L/C)

• Pivot (P): ~2.619
• R1: ~2.737
• R2: ~2.799
• S1: ~2.557
• S2: ~2.439 Current price above P favors attempts at R1 (2.737). S1 (2.557) matches Fib/structure confluence.

10. Pattern Targets & Scenarios (24h)

• Base case (prob. ~60–65%): Early dip to 2.64–2.62 to clear liquidity, then grind back above VWAP (2.68) and squeeze through 2.71 into 2.74–2.76. Ideal profit take: front-run R1 (2.737) at ~2.74–2.75.
• Bull extension (prob. ~20%): Strong breakout over 2.72 with momentum carry to 2.78–2.83 (prior shelf). Less likely within 24h without stronger volume influx.
• Bear risk (prob. ~15–20%): Loss of 2.62 leads to a visit of 2.59–2.57 (Fib 50%/S1 proximity). A daily close below ~2.55 would degrade the setup and puts 2.52/2.44 back in play.

11. Risk/Reward & Execution Plan

• Rationale to Buy: Short-term higher lows, shallow retracement, improving momentum, OBV accumulation, and intraday structure under a clean breakout level.
• Entry: Limit near 2.645 (buy the dip into trendline/value area). A tolerance to 2.62 enhances fill probability.
• Take profit (24h objective): 2.74–2.75 (pivot R1 confluence, measured flag target zone, and just above the 2.71 breakout shelf).
• Invalidation (for risk planning): A sustained move below 2.59–2.57 (Fib/Ichimoku/TL cluster) undermines the long idea.

Bottom line

• Bias: Buy the dip for a breakout attempt through 2.71 toward 2.74–2.76 within 24 hours.
• Why now: Price is pulling back to the rising intraday base with momentum still constructive and multiple tool confluences supporting a retest of the highs.