SUI Coils Above Support: Pivot-to-R2 Pop Likely in the Next 24 Hours

Disclaimer: This is market commentary and educational analysis, not financial advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile. Manage risk.

1. Market state and context

• Instrument: Sui (SUI), USD terms
• Current price: 2.3925
• Regime shift: A sharp downshift began mid-October with a “flash crash” wick to ~0.95 on 2025-10-10 and subsequent lower highs/lows. Since 2025-10-30’s low at ~2.2917, price is attempting to base in a 2.29–2.40 band with mild intraday higher lows.
• Liquidity/Session: Hourly tape shows weekend-like activity with sporadic prints and modest volumes; breakouts are more likely to fade unless they align with key pivot/technical levels.

2. Multi-timeframe price action Daily

• Structure: Series of lower highs from 2.99 (10/13) → 2.82 (10/14) → 2.68 (10/15) → 2.58 (10/20) → 2.51 (10/29) → 2.36 (10/31). Lower low printed 10/30 at 2.2917. The last two daily closes (2.2917 → 2.3642) show stabilization and a small bullish “harami”-like setup after a large down candle, suggesting a pause/reversion.
• Support: 2.29 (10/30 low), 2.30–2.31 (pivot S1 zone), 2.24–2.25 (daily S2 projection), deeper 2.18 (approx 20D lower Bollinger).
• Resistance: 2.40–2.41 (intraday supply and R1), 2.45–2.46 (R2, Fib 23.6%), 2.50–2.51 (late-Oct cluster), 2.56 (20D SMA / Fib 38.2%), 2.60–2.68 (Kijun/cluster).

Hourly (10/31–11/01)

• Microstructure: Stair-step higher lows: ~2.343 → 2.350 → 2.356 → 2.371 → 2.380. Highs capped around 2.39–2.40. This is a tight ascending channel pressing into overhead supply.
• VWAP/POC: Session VWAP approximates ~2.38. Price is marginally above, indicative of slight intraday bullish bias so long as it holds above ~2.37–2.38.

3. Trend diagnostics

• 5D SMA ≈ 2.457; 10D SMA ≈ 2.443; 20D SMA ≈ 2.562. Price < 5D/10D/20D → higher time frame trend still down; short-term mean reversion potential to the 10D/5D sits overhead as resistance.
• 50D SMA (approx) well above (~3.2–3.4) → dominant medium-term downtrend intact.
• Conclusion: Macro trend bearish; micro trend (hourly) constructive. That combination favors short-term bounces into resistance rather than trend reversals.

4. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) Daily ≈ 43: From a weak posture but recovering from low 40s; neither oversold nor overbought, modest upside room before 50–55 where rallies often stall in downtrends.
• Stochastic Daily (estimate): ~35–40% with rising slope from near-range lows, supporting a short-term bounce.
• MACD Daily: Negative and below signal, histogram likely contracting. Convergence points to deceleration of downside momentum, consistent with basing behavior, but no confirmed bullish cross yet.
• ROC: 1D ROC ≈ +1.2% (stabilization), 5D ROC ≈ −8.3% (still negative skew), consistent with a short-term rebound inside a larger downtrend.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) Daily (est): ~0.15–0.20. Implies a typical 24h swing of ~6–8%. From 2.39, that targets an expected envelope roughly 2.24–2.58, with realized range likely smaller given weekend conditions.
• Bollinger Bands (20D, est): Mid ≈ 2.562; lower ≈ 2.18; upper ≈ 2.94. Current z-score relative to mid-band ≈ −0.9. Mean reversion bias favors a drift toward 2.44–2.56 if downside pressure stays muted.

6. Volume, flow, and breadth proxies

• Daily volume has normalized after the October shock. No clear distribution spike the past two sessions; OBV (conceptually) has stopped falling and is flatlining—early sign of accumulation, not a breakout.
• Hourly prints show upticks near 07:00 and 16:00 UTC with small impulsive pushes; participation is adequate for a push into R1/R2 but not for major trend reversal.

7. Ichimoku (daily inference)

• Price below cloud; Tenkan (conv.) likely ~2.50–2.52; Kijun (base) ~2.58–2.60. Lagging span below price and cloud. Interpretation: Bearish framework; however, pullback to Tenkan/Kijun is typical after extended downside. First magnet: 2.50–2.52; stretch: 2.58–2.60. Over 24h, Tenkan tap is the realistic ceiling.

8. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing: 2.9915 (10/13) → 2.2917 (10/30), range = 0.6998.
  • 23.6% retrace = 2.2917 + 0.165 ≈ 2.4567 (confluent with R2).
  • 38.2% ≈ 2.5587 (confluent with 20D SMA/Ichimoku base zone).
  • 50% ≈ 2.6416; 61.8% ≈ 2.7246.
• Near term, 2.457 is a magnet/resistance cluster; probability favors a test before any 2.56 attempt.

9. Classical pivots (based on 10/31 H/L/C = 2.3956/2.2902/2.3642)

• Pivot P ≈ 2.3500
• R1 ≈ 2.4098
• R2 ≈ 2.4554
• R3 ≈ 2.5152
• S1 ≈ 2.3044
• S2 ≈ 2.2446
• S3 ≈ 2.1990 Current price is between P and R1 and grinding higher. Base case path: P → R1 → R2.

10. Candles/patterns

• Daily 10/30–10/31 form a potential bullish harami after a wide-range down bar; not a high-conviction reversal by itself but supports a bounce scenario.
• Hourly shows a tight ascending channel with shallow pullbacks, indicating controlled dip-buying.
• Larger structure remains a descending channel from August highs; any rally likely corrective unless 2.60–2.68 is reclaimed.

11. Quant/mean reversion and probabilities (heuristic)

• With RSI ~43 and price ~0.9σ below the 20D mean, historical tendency favors a 1–2 day drift toward the 10D/5D SMA band (2.44–2.46) with about 55–65% probability, conditional on holding 2.34–2.35.
• Break probabilities (24h):
  • To R1 (2.41): ~60–65%
  • To R2 (2.455): ~45–55%
  • To R3 (2.515): ~25–30% (requires impulse + volume)
  • Breakdown to S1 (2.304): ~30–35% if 2.35 fails; to S2 (2.245): ~15–20% tail risk if volatility expands.

12. Strategy synthesis

• Confluences for a tactical long:
  • Micro uptrend on hourly (higher lows) above session VWAP.
  • Pivot framework: Price postured to attack R1 with a realistic extension to R2; R2 aligns with Fib 23.6% at ~2.457 and 5–10D SMAs zone.
  • Mean reversion pull toward 2.44–2.56; stochastic turning up from lower range; MACD contracting negative.
• Headwinds:
  • Macro downtrend intact; all short/medium MAs above price; rallies can stall fast at 2.45–2.52.
  • Weekend liquidity may cap momentum unless a catalyst appears.

13. 24-hour price path forecast

• Base case (55%): Gradual grind to 2.41 (R1), consolidation, probe to 2.45–2.46 (R2/Fib 23.6%), fade toward 2.42–2.44 into the 24h close. Expected range: 2.35–2.46.
• Bull case (25%): Strong impulsive push through 2.46, stop run toward 2.50–2.515 (R3) if volume expands; then mean-revert to 2.47–2.49.
• Bear case (20%): Failure at 2.40, slip below 2.35 pivot, test 2.31 (S1 region) with downside tail into 2.30–2.31 before reclaiming 2.35.

14. Trade plan (tactical)

• Direction: Buy dips for a push into R1/R2. Favor entries near VWAP/pivot support with tight risk.
• Entry (limit): 2.38 (near VWAP and just above daily pivot P=2.35; within the ascending intraday channel). A momentum alternative is a stop-entry on 2.41+ breakout, but the optimal risk/reward favors a VWAP dip.
• Target (take profit): 2.455 (R2 / Fib 23.6% cluster).
• Suggested risk (not asked but prudent): Protective stop ~2.334–2.340 (below intraday higher-low shelf and S/R band). Risk ≈ 0.046; Reward ≈ 0.075; R:R ≈ 1:1.6. If momentum accelerates, consider trailing for a stretch to 2.50–2.515.
• Execution notes: If price runs without dipping to 2.38, a scaled entry between 2.386–2.398 is acceptable with the same target; keep stop adjusted to maintain ≥1:1.4 R:R.

Decision rationale: The microstructure and multi-indicator confluence favor a 24h mean-reversion bounce toward 2.45–2.46 while 2.34–2.35 holds. The plan aims to capture that move with controlled risk against local support.