SUI at the Edge: Sell the Rip Below $2.00 for a Push Toward $1.90

SUI — Multi-timeframe, indicator-rich, step-by-step technical playbook (24h outlook)

Context and market structure

• Regime change: Since the October 10 shock (intraday low ≈ 0.95; close ≈ 2.60) SUI failed to reclaim prior ranges and has trended down in a persistent sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Daily closes stepped down from ≈ 2.68 (Oct 26) to 2.29 (Oct 30) to 2.07 (Nov 3) to 1.98 (Nov 4–6). The trend is firmly bearish.
• Current price: 1.9846 (11:11 UTC). The round-number 2.00 has acted as a magnet and intraday pivot, now flipping to resistance.
• Near-term microstructure (hourly): A weak bounce to ~2.05 on Nov 5 faded; the Asian/Europe handover drifted lower to ~1.99 with marginal lower lows across 07:00–10:00 UTC, then a feeble uptick back to ~1.996 before slipping to ~1.985. Rallies are being sold; momentum remains negative but not in capitulation.

Key levels (derived from daily and hourly pivots)

• Immediate resistance: 2.00–2.02 (round number, micro-supply), 2.05, 2.07–2.10 (Nov 3 close/pivot), 2.16 (Fibo 38.2% from recent swing), 2.29 (breakdown area/50% retrace), 2.37–2.40 (61.8% retrace, MA20 vicinity earlier in the slide).
• Immediate support: 1.98 (intraday shelf), 1.95, 1.92–1.90 (next demand band), 1.85 (Nov 4 swing low), 1.80.

Moving averages (daily, estimates from provided closes)

• 20D SMA ≈ 2.44 (computed from last 20 closes). Price is ~-19% below MA20: bear control.
• 50D SMA > 3.00 (qualitative, given Aug–Sep prices were 3.0–3.9). Big gap below longer MAs confirms dominant downtrend.
• Hourly MAs: 20/50/200 EMA stack tilted down, with price oscillating under 20/50 and well below 200 — standard bearish alignment. Implication: sell-the-rip remains higher-probability.

Bollinger Bands (daily, qualitative)

• Basis ~2.44; recent vol elevated; estimated lower band ~1.70–1.80. Current price sits in the lower third of the envelope, near but not hugging the band — a regime of trend persistence without oversold panic. This permits further grind lower absent a strong reversal signal.

RSI/Stochastics

• Daily RSI(14): likely 30–35, hovering near but not piercing classical oversold; this allows trend extension while keeping a modest risk of relief bounces.
• Hourly RSI: mid-30s to low-40s through the session; slight bullish divergence potential is weak and has not triggered a structural reversal (no higher highs on price after divergence). Momentum remains fragile.

MACD

• Daily MACD: below zero and below signal with a negative histogram; any flattening is tentative and consistent with a minor pause, not a reversal. A bearish MACD cross-up would require multiple up closes, which are not present.
• Hourly MACD: minor whipsaws around zero, but the latest roll-over after failing at ~2.05 suggests short-term bearish momentum reasserting.

ATR and expected range

• Daily ATR expanded markedly post-October 10; recent daily ranges ≈ 0.20–0.35. For the next 24h, a 0.12–0.20 working range around spot is reasonable given the current compression. Probabilistic path: 1.90–2.06, with higher time spent sub-2.02.

Volume and OBV (qualitative)

• Down days since late October carry heavier volume than up days; OBV trend is down. The Nov 5–6 intraday volumes on minor upticks are light, implying weak demand and higher risk of breakdown continuation.

Fibonacci mapping (recent impulse)

• Swing high to low: Oct 27 high ≈ 2.7155 to Nov 4 low ≈ 1.8528 (range ≈ 0.8627).
  • 38.2% retrace: ≈ 2.182
  • 50% retrace: ≈ 2.284
  • 61.8% retrace: ≈ 2.386
• Post-low bounce failed even to 2.18 (38.2%), topping ~2.07–2.10. In a downtrend, failure to reach 38.2% indicates strong bears; odds favor another leg lower or, at best, sideways-to-down.

Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price below a thick, downward-sloping cloud; Tenkan < Kijun; Lagging Span under price and cloud. Future cloud tilted bearish. No cloud edge support nearby. This framework supports a sell-on-strength bias.

Market profile / volume nodes (qualitative)

• Heavy acceptance zones in the 2.45–2.65 region (now far overhead) and thinner participation 2.28–2.38; current 1.85–2.05 zone is developing value with sellers capping bounces. Thin pockets below 1.98 raise the risk of a quick slip to 1.92–1.90 if 1.98 gives way.

Price action patterns

• Daily: Bearish channel since Oct 26; repeated lower highs. No completed reversal pattern (no double bottom confirmation, no inverse H&S neckline break).
• Hourly: Bear flag/pennant from Nov 4 low, broke down under 2.00; subsequent retests fail quickly. Rising-wedge attempts unwind. Micro head-fake rallies lose steam before touching prior swing highs.

Elliott wave (heuristic)

• The Oct 27 to Nov 4 drop reads as a Wave 3 impulse; the Nov 4–5 pause/bounce to ~2.05 as a shallow Wave 4; a modest Wave 5 toward 1.85–1.80 remains feasible. Over the next 24h, a sub-wave push to 1.92–1.90 fits this count.

Mean reversion vs. trend following

• Trend following: All major signals (MA stack, MACD, structure) favor shorts on rallies.
• Mean reversion: Daily RSI not deeply oversold; Bollinger position in lower third but not at the band. Probabilistic mean reversion is weaker than trend continuation. MR would only trigger on a strong intraday reclaim of 2.05–2.07, which is currently unlikely.

Time-of-day patterns

• The Asia session saw a soft drift lower; Europe open did not produce a decisive reversal. This intraday pattern (lower highs into Europe/US) tends to precede late-session breakdowns when macro trend is bearish.

Risk drivers and invalidation

• Bearish continuation is invalidated on a decisive reclaim of 2.07–2.10 (hourly close above, follow-through to ≥2.16). That would be the first meaningful signal of short-term trend exhaustion.
• If 1.98 breaks on increased volume, a slide to 1.92–1.90 is the path of least resistance, with possible spikes to 1.85 on stop cascades.

Quantified 24h scenario map (subjective probabilities)

• Bearish continuation to 1.92–1.90 after failing at 2.02–2.05: 50–55%
• Range-bound chop 1.96–2.04 without resolution: 25–30%
• Bullish squeeze above 2.07 into 2.10–2.16 (stop-out zone for shorts): 15–20%

Trade plan synthesis

• Edge: Sell the rip toward 2.02–2.04 where micro-resistance and failed retests cluster. Use 2.07–2.10 as the tactical invalidation band; target the 1.90 demand pocket where prior reactive buying appeared.
• Rationale:
  • Structural downtrend across daily/hourly.
  • Failure to retrace even 38.2% of the last impulse down.
  • MAs overhead and widening.
  • Weak momentum on upticks; supply heavy at round numbers.
  • Developing acceptance below 2.00.

Execution guidance (intraday)

• Entry: Limit sell 2.02 (±0.005 tolerance) to exploit minor upticks; if price spikes 2.04–2.05, it remains valid so long as 2.07 is not closed above on the hour.
• Target: 1.90 (first take profit). If momentum accelerates and tape is heavy, extension to 1.88–1.85 is feasible, but 1.90 is the high-probability first touch within 24h.
• Optional risk guard (not requested but prudent): protective stop 2.08–2.10 depending on slippage tolerance, preserving a ~3:1 reward-to-risk to the 1.90 take profit from a 2.02 entry.

Catalyst neutrality

• No on-chain or event catalysts are provided; analysis is purely technical. Absent exogenous news, technical gravity should dominate.

Bottom line

• Bias: Bearish into the next 24 hours.
• Plan: Sell bounce into 2.02; target 1.90.
• Invalidation: Hourly reclaim/hold above 2.07–2.10.