Sui at the Edge: Fade the $1.35 Bounce for a Drive to $1.27

Executive view and next-24h call

• Bias: Bearish continuation on both daily and intraday timeframes. Favor shorting into strength rather than bottom-fishing new lows.
• Expected 24h range: $1.27–$1.35, with a base case path of a weak bounce into supply (≈$1.34–$1.35) followed by a fresh attempt at the lows ($1.31→$1.28).
• Trade idea (tactical): Fade a retrace to $1.345 (limit short). Target $1.275 within 24h if momentum resumes lower. Invalidation above $1.385–$1.395.

Step-by-step analysis (multi-timeframe)

1. Price action and market structure

• Daily structure (Aug→Nov): Clear distribution top near $3.9 (mid-Sep) → persistent series of lower highs/lower lows. A sharp regime shift early Oct (10/10 candle with extreme intraday low) transitioned into a multi-week downtrend. Recent key supports have successively failed: $2.20 → $2.00 → $1.74 → $1.60 → $1.50 → $1.40. Current price $1.3267 sits below the prior day’s close ($1.3903) and near session lows; the path of least resistance remains down.
• Intraday (hourly, last 24–30h): Lower-high sequence is intact: 1.397 → 1.391 → 1.3728 → 1.3526 → 1.3435/1.3386 → 1.3268. New lower low printed near 1.3156. This is classic bearish market structure—rallies are sold and new lows keep probing.
• Support/resistance map: • Overhead supply: $1.34–$1.35 (hourly LH cluster and prior intraday VWAP area), next $1.37–$1.39 (yesterday’s spike zone).
  • Near-term supports: $1.315–$1.320 (fresh intraday low area), $1.300 psychological, then $1.275–$1.285 (measured move/Fib confluence), and deeper $1.25.
• Pattern context: The drop since mid-Nov resembles a descending channel/bear flag set that keeps breaking lower. Failure to reclaim $1.37–$1.39 argues that the latest bear flag resolved down, not up.

2. Trend and moving averages (directional bias)

• Daily MAs (20/50/200): Price is firmly below all key moving averages; slopes are negative, confirming a mature downtrend. Each rally into the falling 20D MA has been sold across Oct/Nov. This keeps the bias sell-on-rips.
• Intraday EMAs (21/50 on 1h): Price trades beneath and rejects from them repeatedly, consistent with a downtrend in the microstructure.

3. Momentum indicators

• RSI: Daily RSI is likely in a bear range (mid-30s or lower) after a prolonged decline. In a trending bear, “oversold” can persist; RSI failing to reclaim 50 keeps momentum negative. Hourly RSI behavior aligns with weak bounces stalling below 50–55, then rolling over—typical of distribution.
• MACD: Daily MACD is below zero with a negative histogram; recent acceleration lower suggests momentum is not yet exhausted. On the 1h, any bullish tick is small and fades at resistance.
• Stochastics: On 1h, attempts to cross up from oversold are failing near prior LHs—signal exhaustion on rallies.

4. Volatility and range

• ATR (qualitative): Daily ranges widened on breakdowns (e.g., Nov 20–21, and notably Oct 10). Current intraday ranges around 4–7% suggest a reasonable 24h swing of ~5–8%. This supports a tactical fade: an entry near $1.345 with a ~5% profit target into $1.27–$1.28 is within expected movement.

5. Bollinger Bands (mean-reversion vs trend)

• Daily: Price is riding/pressing the lower band; BandWidth has expanded during the recent leg lower. In strong downtrends, hugging the lower band often continues before any durable mean-reversion. The middle band (20D MA) overhead is far above spot—an unfavorable risk/reward for counter-trend longs.
• Intraday: Minor pierces of the lower band trigger small bounces, but these stall quickly at the mid-band. This favors selling rallies to the mid/upper band on 1h.

6. Ichimoku framework

• Daily: Price < cloud, Tenkan below Kijun, bearish TK cross, and Chikou span lagging beneath price—complete bearish stack. Cloud offers resistance well above current levels. No edge for longs until at least a Kijun reclaim.
• 1h: Price below a thin cloud; every approach to cloud top is sold. This aligns with using cloud boundaries as shorting zones ($1.34–$1.35).

7. ADX/Directional Movement

• Trend strength: The prolonged lower-high/lower-low sequence and expanding down legs imply ADX is elevated or rising; -DI should dominate +DI. This indicates momentum continuation probability remains high.

8. Volume, OBV, and money flow

• Volume pattern: Down days and breakdown candles draw heavier volume than up days. Post-breakdown rebounds have lighter participation—classic distribution.
• OBV (qualitative): Sloping down—net distribution.
• MFI (qualitative): Likely depressed given the persistent selling and weak demand on bounces.

9. Fibonacci confluences (intraday and swing)

• Intraday (Nov 21 21:00 high 1.397 → Nov 22 13:00 low 1.3156):
  • 38.2% retrace ≈ 1.3156 + 0.382×(0.0814) ≈ 1.3467
  • 50% ≈ 1.3563
  • 61.8% ≈ 1.3659
  The 1.345–1.356 pocket lines up with the recent supply band and 1h EMA/Ichimoku resistance—ideal for a fade.
• Next downside projection (measured move): A symmetrical extension of the last downswing targets $1.28–$1.27, aligning with psychological $1.28 and prior congestion.

10. VWAP and intraday behavior

• Daily VWAP (Nov 22 session): Price has traded below VWAP most of the day; bounces toward VWAP/sessions highs have failed (peaks near $1.343–$1.346). Repeated VWAP rejections further validate short-the-bounce.

11. Elliott/Wyckoff framing (contextual)

• Wyckoff: The broader structure reads as distribution → markdown. Attempts at automatic rallies fail beneath prior supply zones, with lower highs and weak demand—still in markdown phase.
• Elliott (light touch): We’re likely in an impulsive leg down within a larger corrective sequence from the Sep high. The intraday attempts up look like shallow wave-2/4 retracements inside a bear impulse—fitting the 38.2–61.8% retrace sell zone near $1.35.

12. Correlation note (macro context)

• Crypto beta: Alts often follow BTC/ETH risk tone. Without a confirmed risk-on pivot from majors, alts like SUI tend to underperform. Until that changes, it’s prudent to assume rallies are sold.

13. Risk management and scenarios

• Base case (60%): Price retests $1.34–$1.35, stalls, then drives to $1.30 and probes $1.28 ($1.275 TP).
• Bear acceleration (25%): Weak/no bounce; direct break of $1.315 → $1.295–$1.275. If no fill at $1.345, consider tactical chase entries on a $1.318–$1.320 failed retest (not part of the primary order for this plan).
• Bull surprise (15%): Squeeze above $1.355–$1.366 (61.8% retrace) and reclaim $1.37–$1.39. Invalidation above $1.385–$1.395 opens a path to $1.40–$1.42; that would negate the short for this 24h window.
• Stop placement (for discipline): Above $1.386–$1.395 (above yesterday’s supply and the 61.8% retrace cluster). That’s ~3.0–3.7% risk from a $1.345 entry; with a ~5.2% reward to $1.275, the R:R is ~1.4–1.7x, acceptable in a high-probability continuation setup.

14. Why not buy here?

• Catching falling knives is statistically inferior unless clear reversal signals emerge (e.g., bullish divergence across TFs, reclaim of broken structure, strong breadth). Today, we have neither: structure is down, momentum down, and rallies fail quickly.

15. Execution tips

• Use a limit order around $1.345 to avoid slippage and improve odds of a fill in the sell zone.
• Consider partial take-profits around $1.300–$1.295, trail remainder to $1.275 target.
• If filled and price immediately loses $1.33 with rising volume, consider adding on a weak retest of $1.33 as resistance (advanced tactic).
• If price rips through $1.355–$1.366, do not add—respect the stop discipline above $1.385–$1.395.

24-hour price path projection

• Most likely path: $1.3267 → bounce to $1.34–$1.35 → fade to $1.31 → extension to $1.28.
• Alt path: Direct breakdown $1.3267 → $1.315 break → $1.29–$1.28, then a reactive bounce to $1.30–$1.31 late in the window.
• Unlikely squeeze: If above $1.366 and sustained, expect $1.39 tests; that invalidates the short thesis for this horizon.

Conclusion

• Trend, momentum, and structure point to continued downside. The optimal tactic is to sell into the $1.34–$1.35 supply pocket, aiming for $1.27–$1.28 in the next 24 hours, while respecting an invalidation above $1.385–$1.395. This aligns multiple tools (market structure, Fib confluence, intraday VWAP/EMA rejections, and broader downtrend) for a high-quality short setup.

Note: This is market analysis, not investment advice. Manage size and risk according to your plan.