SUI below 1.40: Sell the Rip into 1.41 as the Downtrend Reasserts

Executive summary

• Regime: Strong daily downtrend since the Oct 10 crash, followed by a stepped distribution and accelerated selloff into Nov 21–22. The last 48 hours show basing between 1.34–1.41 with lower highs intact. Microstructure suggests a “sell-the-rip” backdrop.
• Bias next 24h: Range-bound with a slight downside tilt. Expect a liquidity probe toward 1.40–1.41 to fade, then rotation back to 1.36–1.35; risk of stops swept above 1.41–1.42 before reverting.
• Trade idea: Short a pop into 1.408 (prior intraday high/offer wall and stop cluster); target the range floor near 1.35.

1. Price action and market structure

• Higher time frame (daily): Peak near 3.98 on Sep 18. Structural shift lower accelerated on Oct 10 with an extreme range and record volume. Subsequent series of lower highs and lower lows are unbroken. Routine bounces stalled under lower highs around 2.16–2.22 in mid-November before rolling over to fresh lows.
• Recent swing points:
  • Nov 10 local high ~2.22,
  • Nov 22 low ~1.315,
  • Current bounce failing below 1.41–1.42.
• Micro (hourly): Tight range forming: 1.343–1.415. Multiple equal highs at 1.395–1.396 and a stop-run to 1.415 earlier today, then fade to 1.389. That reinforces overhead supply. Equal lows cluster near 1.343–1.350, a magnet if the bounce stalls.
• Pattern read: Descending channel from October persists. Last 2–3 days exhibit a potential bear flag/falling wedge completion, but confirmation requires reclaiming 1.43–1.45; otherwise, rallies likely sold.

2. Key levels (confluence-oriented)

• Resistance: 1.395–1.415 (intraday supply and stop cluster), 1.432 (above today’s spike; invalidation pivot), 1.50–1.53 (fib 23.6% of 2.22→1.315 leg and prior breakdown), 1.66 (fib 38.2%), 1.77–1.78 (50% + 20D baseline), 1.875–1.93 (61.8% + structural shelf).
• Support: 1.362–1.370 (intraday mid), 1.350–1.344 (range floor and daily shelf), 1.330–1.315 (recent capitulation zone).
• Liquidity:
  • Buy-side stops above 1.396/1.405 and especially 1.415;
  • Sell-side stops below 1.350/1.344 and 1.330.

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20D SMA ≈ 1.77 (approx): Price (1.389) is below — bearish regime. Distance from mean is large but not extreme, implying mean-reversion potential is present but trend still dominates.
• 9/21 EMA ribbon (approx): 9 EMA ≈ mid-1.5s; 21 EMA ≈ upper-1.6/low-1.7s. Ribbon fanned downward, price below both — trend-following systems favor shorts on rallies.
• 50D SMA: Well above price (>2), confirming longer-term bearish structure.
• Conclusion: MAs recommend selling into strength until price can reclaim and hold above the 9/21 ribbon.

4. Momentum/oscillators

• RSI (daily, qualitative): Oversold into Nov 21–22, now recovering toward low/mid-30s. That supports a short-lived bounce but not a trend change. Hourly RSI hovered around midline, rejecting on pushes above 60, consistent with range.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): Below zero with narrowing histogram — bearish momentum is slowing, but signal crossover confirmation is absent. Hourly MACD flattened, consistent with distribution near 1.39–1.41.
• Stoch/Stock RSI (inference): Reset from oversold but not embedding above 80 — suggests bounces are likely to fade before breaking structure.
• DMI/ADX (inference): DI- dominant since early Nov; ADX elevated then easing — downtrend still intact but momentum is less intense, favoring choppy mean-reversion within a bearish channel.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR (daily, qualitative): Expanded into the mid-Nov selloff; currently compressing. Expect 24h range roughly 0.06–0.10 around spot.
• Bollinger Bands (20D): Mid-band near 1.77, lower band likely ~1.25–1.30. Price is in the lower half, below mid-band, indicating downward bias; not at extremes, allowing room for intraday fades.
• Keltner Channels: Price hugging/below middle line; rallies into channel mid/upper line tend to fade without a momentum shift.

6. Ichimoku cloud (qualitative)

• Price is below cloud on daily; future cloud likely red. Tenkan < Kijun and both above price — trend bearish. On 1h, price oscillates below/near a thin cloud; repeated rejections align with selling upticks.

7. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing: 2.22 (Nov 10) to 1.315 (Nov 22). Key retracements:
  • 23.6% ≈ 1.53 (first major resistance above),
  • 38.2% ≈ 1.66,
  • 50% ≈ 1.77,
  • 61.8% ≈ 1.875.
• Current price below 23.6%: weak bounce. Any rally into 1.50–1.53 is a high-confluence sell zone (fib + former supports-turned-resistance).
• Intraday fib (1.343→1.415): 61.8% at ~1.376 — note repeated reactions around 1.374–1.379, marking a balanced pivot; losing that opens 1.36 quickly.

8. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Oct 10 showed extreme volume and a structural break. Subsequent distributions had strong red days on above-average volume.
• Nov 21 was heavy volume on selloff; Nov 22–23 showed lower volume stabilization — consistent with short-covering and early dip-buying, not yet a trend reversal.
• OBV/Accum-Distrib (qualitative): Trending down since early Nov; recent flattening matches the base-building narrative but not a buy-the-trend signal.

9. VWAPs and intraday execution

• Session VWAP (today) likely around 1.38–1.39 after the push to 1.415 and fade. Price toggling around VWAP indicates two-way flow; fades above VWAP have worked.
• Anchored VWAP from Nov 22 low would sit near 1.37–1.38; testing/losing it tends to accelerate toward 1.35.

10. Orderflow/liquidity concepts

• Equal highs near 1.395–1.396 plus prior stop-run to 1.415 mark a prime liquidity pocket to fade. Smart money often runs that pocket again (1.405–1.415), then reverts.
• Equal lows 1.344–1.350 are an opposing pool; if the rip fade plays out, price should rotate down to sweep that area.

11. Elliott/harmonics (light-touch)

• From 2.22 high, a 5-wave decline can be sketched into 1.315. Current action resembles a wave-4 sideways/flag; typical targets cap below 38.2% retrace (~1.66). Micro rallies toward 1.41–1.45 fit a sub-wave retrace inside the flag.

12. Mean reversion statistics

• Z-score vs 20D mean: Price ~1.389 vs mean ~1.77 implies a negative Z-score in the -1.2 to -1.6 range (rough). That allows for countertrend bounces; however, without reclaiming the mean, the prevailing tactic is to fade rallies into resistance.

13. Scenario planning (24h)

• Base case (60%): Early/Europe session pokes 1.40–1.41, brief stop-run 1.405–1.415, then fade to 1.36–1.35, with wicks toward 1.344. New York session stabilizes 1.35–1.37.
• Bullish alt (25%): Clean break and hourly close above 1.415, follow-through to 1.432; if held, extension to 1.45–1.48. Still a corrective path unless 1.50–1.53 is reclaimed.
• Bearish tail (15%): Immediate roll from 1.39 losing 1.37 and 1.35 without another stop-run; fast sweep to 1.33 and possibly test 1.315.

14. Strategy and trade plan

• Rationale to short:
  • Dominant downtrend intact across daily/weekly filters.
  • 9/21 EMA ribbon overhead.
  • Repeated intraday rejections near 1.40–1.41; visible stops above 1.405–1.415 invite a sweep-and-fade setup.
  • Weak fib posture (<23.6% of 2.22→1.315).
  • Volume suggests bounce is short-covering, not new accumulation.
• Execution:
  • Entry: 1.408 (limit), inside the 1.405–1.415 stop pocket.
  • Primary target: 1.348 (range floor liquidity).
  • Invalidation/stop (for risk control, not part of output fields): 1.432 (decisive reclaim above the stop pocket and micro lower-high line).
  • Risk/reward: Entry 1.408 to target 1.348 = 0.060. Entry to stop 1.432 = 0.024. RR ≈ 2.5:1.
• Optional scaling: Consider partial at 1.362–1.370 (mid-range) and run remainder to 1.348.

15. What would flip the bias?

• Sustained acceptance above 1.432 with rising volume, then reclaim 1.50–1.53 (fib 23.6% + prior shelf). That would signal a more meaningful corrective leg toward 1.66/1.77. Until then, rallies remain suspect.

Prediction next 24 hours

• Expect a choppy push to 1.40–1.41, possible wick into 1.408–1.415, followed by a rotation back down to 1.36–1.35, with a likely intraday low print around 1.34–1.35 and settlement near 1.36–1.37.

Risk management notes

• Crypto can gap and overshoot stops. Size positions assuming a potential 1–1.5x daily ATR adverse excursion. If entry is missed (no rally to 1.408), stand aside rather than chase mid-range.