SUI’s post-capitulation coil: Pivot reclaim points to a 1.62 push within 24 hours

Executive summary and directional bias

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish continuation with a retest higher toward 1.60–1.62, after an intraday higher-low and VWAP reclaim. Expect a choppy grind upward with pullbacks being bought.
• Rationale at a glance: Post-capitulation rebound from 1.32–1.35 established a short-term uptrend (higher highs/lows on the hourly), price closed above the daily pivot and near R1, reclaimed intraday VWAP, MACD is curling up on the daily, RSI rising from oversold, and a double-bottom-like structure is visible on the daily. However, the medium-term trend is still down with the 20/50D MAs overhead, so targets are conservative.

1. Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Higher timeframe (daily): Clear medium-term downtrend from early October’s 3.5–3.9 area to the 11/21 capitulation close around 1.39 and low near 1.324. Since 11/23, the market has formed a short-term uptrend: 11/23 higher low (1.367) → 11/24 strong up candle (1.526) → 11/25 higher high (1.596) → 11/26 modest digestion (1.550). Structure = emerging LTF reversal inside an HTF downtrend.
• Intraday (hourly for 11/26): Session sold to 1.477 around midday, then reversed with higher highs into the US close, finishing near highs (1.55). The 17:00–21:00 sequence carved higher highs and higher lows; 21:00 printed the intraday high near 1.56 and price held above the daily pivot into the close.

2. Key levels: support, resistance, supply/demand

• Support
  • 1.50–1.51: Round-number shelf and intraday bid zone; near daily pivot P≈1.528 and S1≈1.494.
  • 1.472–1.478: Today’s intraday swing low/testing area; loss would weaken the intraday uptrend.
  • 1.39–1.40: 11/21 capitulation close and prior demand; major HTF support.
• Resistance / overhead supply
  • 1.58–1.60: R1≈1.583, psychological 1.60, and 11/25 swing high zone.
  • 1.62–1.65: R2≈1.617; congestion where late sellers may appear; aligns with mean reversion targets.
  • 1.68–1.70: Prior Nov swing zone (11/18 high 1.694); stretch goal within 1x ATR from current.

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20D SMA ≈ 1.74 (approx). Price (1.55) remains below the 20D SMA → evidence the larger trend is still down; however, mean reversion room exists toward the mid-band.
• 20D EMA (approx) ≈ 1.62–1.67 (faster than SMA, closer to price). A push toward 1.60–1.62 tests this zone.
• 50D SMA: Significantly higher (dragged up by September–October prices >3). Strong overhead trend resistance remains on any multi-day rally.
• Takeaway: Short-term bullish push likely stalls near the 1.60–1.67 MA cluster; use that for take-profit.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Rising from oversold, likely mid-40s to low-50s. Not overbought; room to the upside.
• Hourly RSI: Reset from near-30 at today’s low to mid-50s/60s on the close—bullish microstructure.
• Stochastic (daily): Bullish cross up from the lower band, consistent with an early bounce within a broader downtrend.
• Conclusion: Momentum is improving on LTF and stabilizing on HTF, supporting a 24h push higher before encountering MA resistance.

5. MACD, histogram, and crossovers

• Daily MACD: Flattening from deeply negative; histogram shrinking in the last few sessions and the signal lines are close to a bullish cross. A “cross up” in the next 1–3 sessions is likely if price holds above ~1.50.
• Hourly MACD: Already positive after the midday reversal; consistent with continued follow-through into Asia/EU.

6. Volatility and expected range (ATR)

• ATR(14) daily ≈ 0.14–0.16 (est.). From 1.55, a 1x ATR topside excursion targets 1.69–1.71; downside 1.39–1.41. For 24h, a base case range is 1.49–1.63, with a bullish skew due to the pivot/VWAP reclaim and improving momentum.

7. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Mid-band (≈20SMA) ≈ 1.74; price is below the mid and above the lower band. The rally began near the lower band (11/21–22) and is mean-reverting upward. Expect resistance as price approaches the mid-band (not likely to be fully reached within 24h; 1.60–1.62 is a reasonable pre-mid-band step).

8. Ichimoku (9-26-52)

• Tenkan (9-period mid) ≈ ~1.51 (high ~1.694, low ~1.324 over last 9 sessions → mid ~1.509). Price at 1.55 is above Tenkan: short-term constructive.
• Kijun (26-period mid) ≈ ~1.77 (high includes early Nov >2.2, low ~1.324). Price below Kijun: medium-term downtrend intact.
• Cloud: Likely above price and bearish-sloped. Read: Early bullish reversal signals within a dominant bear regime—a tactical long, not yet a trend change.

9. VWAP, volume, and participation

• Intraday VWAP: Price reclaimed and held above into the close—bullish for next session’s open.
• Volume: Capitulation spike 11/21, robust rebounds 11/24–25, healthy but tapering 11/26—typical of a consolidation day after a thrust higher. No distributional top signal detected yet.
• OBV (qualitative): Stabilizing/up-ticking since 11/23, confirming accumulation on rallies.

10. Classical patterns and market structure

• Double bottom: 11/21 (low ~1.324) and 11/22 (~1.315 intraday) with a neckline around 1.52–1.53 (broken on 11/24). Measured move from neckline (≈1.53) plus depth (~0.20) targets ~1.73 over several days; 24h projection conservatively 1.60–1.62.
• Elliott Wave (tactical): Wave 1 from 1.345 → 1.526 (11/24), Wave 2 pullback to 1.472 (11/26), Wave 3 in progress targeting 1.62–1.65 near-term; wave 4 consolidation thereafter.
• Wyckoff lens: Selling Climax (SC) near 11/21, Automatic Rally (AR) 11/24–25, Secondary Test (ST) intraday 11/26 around 1.47. If this structure holds, Phase B/C can propel price into 1.60–1.62.

11. Fibonacci maps

• From the 11/21 low (~1.324) to 11/25 high (~1.596): The 0.382–0.5 retrace band sits near 1.51–1.46. Today’s low 1.472 tagged this zone and bounced—textbook bullish pullback. Next fib upside checkpoints from the same swing: 1.618 extension aligns near 1.70 (stretch beyond 24h base case) while 1.27–1.414 cluster sits around 1.62–1.65 (fits the 24h target).

12. Pivot points (classic, 11/26 session)

• High≈1.562, Low≈1.473, Close=1.550 → P≈1.528; R1≈1.583; S1≈1.494; R2≈1.617; S2≈1.439.
• We closed above P and near R1; a push through R1 opens R2≈1.617, an ideal 24h take-profit candidate.

13. Risk factors and invalidation

• Main risk: Overhead supply 1.58–1.62 and the 20/EMA cluster 1.62–1.67 could cap price; failure to clear R1 may lead to chop/pullback toward 1.51–1.50 (pivot).
• Invalidation (tactical long): A decisive break below 1.472 (today’s pullback low) would negate the intraday higher-low structure and likely revisit 1.44–1.39.

14. Probabilistic path for next 24h

• 60%: Bullish continuation to 1.60–1.62 (R1 → R2), with intraday dips bought near 1.53–1.54.
• 25%: Range-bound 1.52–1.58, coiling under R1 before another attempt.
• 15%: Bearish break under 1.50 → 1.47 test; only if risk-off returns broadly or if buyers fail to defend the pivot.

Trade plan (tactical swing, 24h horizon)

• Direction: Buy the dip (long) in the 1.53–1.54 pullback zone; place a protective stop (not required by prompt, but prudent) below 1.472; target 1.62 (R2 test). This aligns with: pivot support, hourly uptrend, MACD turn, RSI recovery, and fib confluence.
• Rationale for entry timing: Entering slightly below market (limit ~1.535) aims to capture a routine pullback to the daily pivot zone before the next push toward R1/R2. If price momentum accelerates at the open, a market/chase entry is possible but offers a worse R:R.

Bottom line

• Short-term bullish setup within a larger downtrend. Expect a measured push into 1.60–1.62 in the next 24 hours; use 1.53–1.54 for entries, respect 1.47 as invalidation, and harvest gains as price approaches the 1.62 confluence (R2/fib/EMA zone).