TIA at the Pivot: Buying the 0.382 Fib and Daily S1 for a 24h Mean-Reversion Push

Comprehensive multi-timeframe, multi-tool technical assessment for Celestia (TIA)

Timeframe coverage

• Higher timeframe: 1D candles from 2025-07-18 to 2025-10-15
• Tactical/entry timeframe: 1H candles for 2025-10-14 to 2025-10-15 (intraday development)
• Current spot: 1.088798

1. Market structure and trend diagnostics

• Macro (1D): TIA spent July–Sep in a broad downtrend from ~2.2–1.4. On 2025-10-10 there was an extreme capitulation event (intraday low print 0.31665; likely a liquidation wick/venue anomaly), followed by a sharp rebound to 1.21 on 10/13 and consolidation/mean reversion since. Price is still well below the pre-October downtrend MAs, meaning the long-term trend is down, but a short-term bottoming process is in play since 10/10.
• Post-capitulation sequence (Wyckoff lens): • Spring/Capitulation: 10/10 massive lower wick and highest volume in the sample (248.5M). • Automatic Rally (AR): 10/11–10/13 strong impulse to 1.213 (10/13 H). • Secondary Test (ST): Current pullback retracing toward 1.09–1.06. This is normal if accumulation is forming. If the ST holds above ~1.02–1.05 (Fib/structural support), odds of a Phase B range/push higher increase.
• Market structure (swing points): • Higher low sequence relative to 0.90–0.93 (10/11), provided 1.06 doesn’t break. • Resistance shelf: 1.16–1.21 (multiple intraday rejections). • Support shelf: 1.06–1.09 (multiple touches; see pivots and Fibonacci below).
• 1H structure today: Clear descending channel from ~1.16 toward 1.09 with lower highs and marginal lower lows. However, price now sits at a confluence support zone, increasing bounce probability.

2. Key levels (confluence-driven)

• Daily pivot set (derived from 10/14 H=1.20311, L=1.072214, C=1.161255): • Pivot P ≈ 1.1455 • S1 ≈ 1.0879 (current price trades right on top of S1) • S2 ≈ 1.0146 • R1 ≈ 1.2188 • R2 ≈ 1.2764 → Trading at S1 provides a tactical long setup toward the pivot (P) on mean reversion.
• Fibonacci retracement (anchor low filtered to 10/11 L=0.90035 to avoid the extreme 10/10 wick; anchor high 10/13 H=1.21342): • 23.6% ≈ 1.1395 • 38.2% ≈ 1.0944 • 50% ≈ 1.0569 • 61.8% ≈ 1.0195 → Current 1.088–1.094 region = 38.2% Fib. Next deeper support 1.057 (50%) and 1.020 (61.8%). This is classic first and second pullback territory after a momentum burst.
• Horizontal SR from candles: • 1.203–1.213: swing high supply • 1.160–1.165: intraday rejection zone (10/14–10/15) • 1.145–1.152: consolidation shelf and daily pivot P cluster • 1.087–1.094: current support (S1 + 0.382 Fib) • 1.072 (10/14 L): support test • 1.056–1.058: 0.5 Fib and likely stop cluster area • 1.020–1.015: 0.618 Fib / daily S2 • 0.957–0.96: daily S3; deeper failure only if risk-off resumes

3. Moving averages (context)

• 1D EMAs/SMA: Price remains well below long MAs (50D/200D), consistent with macro downtrend. Short-term EMAs (10–20D) will lag the recent shock but likely still above current price; this gives overhead moving-average resistance on the daily.
• 1H EMAs: • EMA20/EMA50: Estimated around ~1.12 and ~1.14 respectively (price below both), indicating intraday downtrend. However, • Reversion tendency: Price hugging lower bands/EMAs often mean-reverts toward EMA20, which aligns near 1.12–1.13 and is close to the daily pivot P ≈ 1.1455 overhead target region.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) 1H: After a steady drift from ~1.16 to ~1.09, RSI is likely near or below 30 (oversold) and beginning to show flattening. Between 15:00–19:00, price made marginal new lows while momentum moderated, suggestive of budding bullish divergence.
• RSI(14) Daily: Neutralizing from oversold post-capitulation; not overbought. Leaves room for a tactical bounce within a broader bearish regime.
• Stochastics 1H: Typically turns up first; given the intraday grind, expect a cross up if price holds above 1.08–1.09.

5. MACD

• 1H MACD: Bearish signal from earlier today as histogram expanded negative. More recently, histogram contraction is likely as price stalls at support, increasing odds of a bullish cross if we base above ~1.09 and push through ~1.103–1.11.
• 1D MACD: Still below zero but ticking upward since 10/11–10/13 impulse; pullback may reset the shorter signal line without wrecking the nascent daily improvement.

6. Volatility and ranges

• ATR 1D has expanded post 10/10 event; typical daily range last 3 sessions ~0.11–0.13. A 24h move from 1.09 to ~1.14 is well within realized volatility, making a mean reversion long to the daily pivot realistic within one day.
• 1H ATR around ~0.01–0.02 suggests 2–4 hours could carry price to the first intraday resistance bands if buying emerges.

7. Bollinger Bands

• 1H BB(20): Price is riding/lapping the lower band (~1.09) with the mid-band near ~1.12–1.13. A tag of lower band at a confluence support (S1 + 0.382 Fib) enhances the odds of a reversion toward the middle band, and potentially to the upper band near ~1.15 if momentum turns.
• 1D BB(20): Mid-band likely far above current due to legacy prices; not immediately actionable for a 24h trade, but implies substantial upside room if a squeeze develops.

8. Ichimoku (signal-rich for mean reversion)

• 1H Tenkan/Kijun: Price below both; Kijun projected around ~1.12. Flat Kijun often acts as a magnet after extended deviation. A reclaim of Tenkan followed by a Kijun touch is a common snapback pattern.
• Cloud (Senkou A/B): Likely bearish overhead; a cloud test sits near 1.13–1.15. That overlaps pivot P and prior micro-congestion, reinforcing that zone as a pragmatic 24h target.

9. Volume and order-flow hints

• 10/10: Peak volume marks capitulation. Classic backdrop for subsequent range construction.
• 10/11–10/14: Elevated but declining volume as price recovered and then digested gains.
• 10/15 intraday: Lower participation during the drift down to S1 suggests lack of aggressive supply at lows; this often precedes a bounce when a catalyst or small imbalance appears.

10. VWAP perspectives

• Session VWAP (today) likely above spot (~1.10–1.12), indicating distribution below VWAP; however, once sellers tire, reversion to session/2-day VWAP often occurs. Expect any squeeze to first target VWAP and then the daily pivot P.
• Anchored VWAP from the 10/10 capitulation would sit higher (est. ~1.12–1.14), coincident with resistance/targets rather than entries.

11. Candlestick cues

• 10/10 daily: Long lower shadow (capitulation wick) → bullish reversal potential.
• 10/12 daily: Strong green trend bar (confirmation of reversal energy).
• 10/13 daily: Bull continuation with new recovery high (1.213).
• 10/14 daily: Wide-range candle with deep lower shadow (L=1.072) but close at 1.161. Demand present sub-1.10.
• 10/15 intraday: Multiple 1H candles with lower wicks around 1.09, signaling dip buying emerging at support.

12. Elliott/Wave framing (tactical)

• Impulse from ~0.90 to ~1.213 counts as Wave 1 or A.
• Current decline into 1.09–1.06 plausibly Wave 2 or B (abc). Typical retrace zones: 0.382–0.618; current sits at 0.382 with scope to 0.5 (1.057). Buying the 0.382–0.5 pocket aligns with wave theory for a push to retest 1.15–1.21 if the structure holds.

13. Pattern recognition

• 1H descending channel: A break above ~1.103–1.11 would be the first confirmation of a bounce. Channel midpoint aligns with EMA20; channel top near 1.13–1.15 (target area).
• Double-bottom potential: A marginal sweep of 1.088–1.09 (today) versus 1.097 (prior low) with momentum divergence often forms a micro double-bottom for a tactical long.

14. Risk, invalidation, and scenario analysis (24h horizon)

• Base case (60%): Hold above 1.08–1.09 (S1/0.382 Fib), reclaim 1.103–1.11, mean revert to 1.13–1.15. This is the favored mean-reversion play given the confluence and oversold intraday momentum.
• Bear case (30%): Break and hourly acceptance below 1.072 → quick path to 1.057 (0.5 Fib). If 1.057 fails, 1.020–1.015 (0.618 Fib/S2) is next magnet. This would postpone the bounce by 12–36 hours but keeps the wider post-spring accumulation idea intact unless <1.00.
• Bull extension (10%): Fast squeeze through 1.15; if momentum/volume spike, stretch to 1.16–1.18. Less likely within 24h without a catalyst but not impossible in crypto.
• Invalidation for the long idea: A decisive hourly close below ~1.058 (0.5 Fib) increases risk of deeper test to 1.02 and invalidates the immediate-bounce setup.

15. Strategy synthesis and trade plan (tactical)

• Rationale to Buy (Long): • Multi-signal confluence at current price: Daily S1 ≈ 1.0879 + 0.382 Fib ≈ 1.0944 + 1H lower Bollinger band + budding RSI divergence. • Mean reversion probabilities high: Price stretched below 1H EMAs and Tenkan/Kijun with flat Kijun magnet near ~1.12. Pivot P at ~1.1455 provides a realistic 24h target. • Post-capitulation market behavior: Historically supportive of accumulation ranges with buy-the-dip behavior near Fib supports.
• Entry tactics: • Primary: Limit buy in the 1.080–1.090 pocket; ideal print 1.082–1.086 to maximize RR. • Confirmation trigger (for momentum followers): Add on reclaim of 1.103–1.110 with increasing 1H volume.
• Targeting: • First target: 1.13 (EMA20 1H / VWAP test). • Second/primary target for 24h: 1.145–1.152 (daily pivot P + prior shelf).
• Risk management (not part of output pricing but essential): • Protective stop: 1.058 (below 0.5 Fib/10/14 low cluster), giving ~2.2–2.6% downside from 1.082–1.086 and ~5–6% upside to 1.145–1.152 (RR ~2–2.5). More conservative stop 1.045 if volatility spikes. • If entry doesn’t fill and price lifts >1.11 early, consider a momentum entry with tighter stop under 1.095 and target reduced to 1.14.

16. Time-of-day and flow considerations

• Today’s U.S. hours showed controlled sell pressure that stalled into S1; Asia open often likes to mean-revert extremes. A bounce could begin into the late U.S./early Asia session if 1.085–1.09 continues to hold.

17. Bottom line

• The setup is a tactical long from a high-probability confluence support (S1 + 0.382 Fib + 1H lower band + RSI divergence) targeting a reversion to the daily pivot/1H EMA cluster around 1.145. The macro trend remains down, so this is a nimble 24h mean reversion, not an investment call. If 1.072/1.058 breaks, reconsider and let it flush toward 1.02 before re-evaluating.

24-hour price path expectation

• Probable path: 1.08–1.09 base → reclaim 1.103–1.11 → tag 1.13 → extension to 1.145–1.15 → stall/decision.
• Alternative (bear): Brief undercut to 1.072–1.058 first, then bounce to 1.12–1.14 but on a delayed timetable.