TIA sits on a Fibonacci/20D SMA confluence: setting up a bounce toward 1.02

Comprehensive, multi-timeframe technical view for Celestia (TIA)

Context and market structure

• Instrument: TIA/USD
• Current price: 0.9691
• Regime: Post-crash basing and mean-reversion since the October 10 flash event, followed by a strong relief rally on Nov 7 and a controlled pullback into a high-probability retracement zone. Short-term momentum has cooled over the last 24 hours, but bigger-picture structure off the Nov 4 low remains constructive provided key supports hold.

1. Price action and structure

• Daily trend: After the Oct 10 shock (intraday low ~0.3167; recovery close ~0.922), price formed a broad base through late Oct/early Nov (0.78–1.07). Nov 7 produced a momentum spike to ~1.1712 and a strong close (1.063), establishing a higher high vs early Nov. Since then, price has pulled back into the 0.96–1.02 zone.
• Intraday (last 24h): Sequence of lower highs and lower lows from ~1.04 at the start of the session to a trough ~0.9624 at 20:00 UTC, then a minor recovery to ~0.979 before settling ~0.969. This is consistent with a descending intraday channel, now sitting near lower channel support.
• Support/resistance (SR levels by clustering of highs/lows and HVNs):
  • S1: 0.963–0.965 (today’s lower wick cluster and prior intraday reaction area)
  • S2: 0.94–0.935 (61.8% fib retracement of Nov 4–7 impulse)
  • S3: 0.91–0.90 (late Oct pivot band, psychological)
  • R1: 0.99–1.00 (psychological and intraday pivot resistance)
  • R2: 1.02–1.04 (38.2% retrace magnet from the top and recent daily closes)
  • R3: 1.06–1.08 (11/10 high zone)
  • R4: 1.17 (Nov 7 spike high)

2. Fibonacci mapping (swing Nov 4 low to Nov 7 high)

• Swing: Low 0.7848 (Nov 4) to High ~1.1712 (Nov 7). Range ≈ 0.3864.
• Retracements from the high:
  • 38.2%: 1.1712 - 0.382*0.3864 ≈ 1.0237
  • 50%: ≈ 0.9780
  • 61.8%: ≈ 0.9327
• Current price 0.969 sits just below the 50% retracement and above 61.8%, a classic “golden pocket” zone where high-probability bounces often occur if trend continuation is intact. The 0.963–0.978 band is therefore a tactical buy area with a clearly defined invalidation below ~0.958–0.952.

3. Moving averages (daily, approximations from provided closes)

• 10D SMA ≈ 0.93: Price is above the 10D, signaling short-term recovery remains alive even after today’s soft tape.
• 20D SMA ≈ 0.965: Price is essentially sitting on the 20D midpoint (mean reversion magnet). This bolsters the case for a bounce as long as we hold this average on a closing basis.
• 50D SMA (trend estimate): Still well above spot (legacy values from pre-October downtrend), implying the intermediate trend is not yet fully repaired. This explains why rallies meet supply into the 1.06–1.08 band.
• Read: Short-term constructive, medium-term incomplete repair, long-term still below major MAs.

4. Bollinger Bands (20D)

• Middle band ≈ 20D SMA ~0.965; upper band likely ~1.14, lower ~0.79 given recent realized vol.
• Price has reverted to the mid-band after touching extremes over the past two weeks (lower band early Nov, near upper band after Nov 7). Trading around the mid-band suggests a coiling phase; a tag and hold above the mid-band typically favors a push toward the upper band if momentum rebuilds. Loss of the mid-band on volume would open a test of 0.94.

5. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (est.): High 40s to low 50s after the Nov 7 surge and subsequent pullback. Not overbought; room for upside if buyers re-engage.
• 1H RSI: Spent much of the session in the low-to-mid 40s with prints near 30s around the 20:00 low, then stabilized into the US afternoon/evening. The downside momentum appears to be losing steam near 0.963–0.969.
• Stochastics (1H/4H): Likely cycling out of oversold on the 1H; 4H turning down but flattening. This setup often precedes a mean-reversion pop into overhead resistance.

6. MACD

• Daily: MACD line above signal after the Nov 7 impulse but the histogram has been contracting. This is consistent with a pullback within a budding upturn rather than a full trend failure—unless 0.94 breaks.
• Intraday (1H/4H): Bearish through the session; histogram contraction in the last few hours hints at possible momentum troughing. A 1H bullish cross above the zero-line would likely coincide with a push back toward 0.99–1.01.

7. Volume/OBV

• Nov 7–8 saw a meaningful participation spike (225–248M), validating the upside impulse. Pullback days have shown lower or moderate volume relative to the surge—typical of a corrective phase rather than aggressive distribution.
• Today’s slide occurred on moderate volume; OBV from early Nov remains net improved versus the post-flash-crash base. This favors accumulation-on-dips behavior near defined supports.

8. Volatility and ATR

• Recent daily ATR(14) estimate: ~0.07–0.09. Within the next 24 hours, a ±0.05–0.08 swing from current price is statistically ordinary. That puts 0.91–1.05 inside expected bounds, with 0.99–1.03 the most probable reversion band if support holds.

9. Ichimoku (heuristic, higher-level read from structure)

• Daily: Price is hovering near projected Tenkan/Kijun area after the rally. A hold above the Kijun-equivalent zone (~0.96–0.98) keeps the bullish continuation path viable. A clean recapture of 1.02–1.04 would likely push price back toward the cloud top/1.06–1.08 zone.
• 4H: Price is likely near/below the cloud; a reclaimed cloud on 4H would signal momentum shift back to bulls.

10. Intraday VWAP/pivots (qualitative)

• Today traded beneath early-session VWAP for most of the day, but the late-session stabilization near 0.97 and successive attempts to regain 0.98 suggest sellers are tiring into the close.
• Classic floor pivots for the next session put P and R1 near 0.99–1.00 and 1.01–1.02, respectively, aligning with our resistance ladder.

11. Pattern read

• Potential bull flag/descending channel pullback off the Nov 7 high, now testing the lower boundary near the 50% retrace and 20D SMA. This confluence increases the odds of a bounce attempt.
• Candle context: The intraday 20:00 red expansion bar to 0.963 followed by stabilization into 22:00–23:00 builds a tentative base. A push back above 0.985–0.990 would confirm the micro reversal.

12. Scenario mapping (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Hold 0.963–0.969, grind higher into 0.99–1.01, potentially tagging 1.02 if momentum ticks up. This is a mean-reversion bounce back to mid/upper intraday bands and daily 38.2% retrace magnet (from the Nov 7 high).
• Sideways (30%): Chop 0.96–0.99 while waiting for a catalyst; still constructive as long as 0.958 holds on a closing basis.
• Bear break (15%): A decisive loss of 0.958–0.952 opens a swift probe to 0.94; a daily close below 0.94 would shift the bias to neutral-to-bearish and target 0.91–0.90.

13. Trade plan and risk framing

• Bias: Buy-the-dip near the 20D SMA/50% fib confluence with clear invalidation below the 61.8% retracement.
• Entry: Prefer a limit near 0.965 (slightly above today’s local support cluster to improve fill probability). More conservative traders can wait for micro confirmation >0.985, but that reduces RR.
• Initial target: 1.02–1.04 band, with a tactical TP at ~1.028 to capture the mean reversion within a 24h window.
• Invalidation (stop guideline, not part of the required output): 0.942 (below 0.94 liquidity shelf and 61.8% fib), giving ~2.4% downside from 0.965 versus ~6.5% upside to 1.028; RR ≈ 2.7:1.

Bottom line

• The confluence of the 20D SMA (~0.965), the 50% retracement (~0.978 just above spot), intraday channel support (~0.963), and fading downside momentum sets up a favorable short-term long. A rebound toward 0.99–1.02 is the highest-probability path over the next 24 hours provided 0.958–0.952 holds. A break and daily close below 0.94 would invalidate and turn the bias neutral-to-bearish.