TIA: Fade the Bounce — Bear Flag Into VWAP/Fib Confluence Signals Another Leg Lower

Executive summary

• Bias: Bearish continuation on multi-week downtrend; looking to fade intraday bounces.
• 24h view: Likely a relief pop toward 0.458–0.472 followed by another leg down to re-test 0.444–0.436; tail risk of a deeper flush to 0.428–0.422 if supports give way.
• Plan: Short a retracement into clustered resistance (VWAP/Fib/MAs) around 0.462–0.468; target 0.432–0.436 within 24h. Invalidation above 0.476/0.481.

Price action and structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily context (from the day series): Price has trended down since late Sep highs (~1.7). After an October regime shift (large gap-down and heavy distribution), TIA failed multiple bounce attempts through Nov–Dec and now trades at fresh local lows near 0.45, confirming a persistent lower-high/lower-low structure. Each rally saw diminishing follow-through with heavier volume on down days than up days—a classic distribution profile.
• Recent path (Dec): successive closes: 0.6509 → 0.6061 → 0.5897 → 0.5741 → 0.5806 → 0.5414 → 0.5029 → 0.5121 → 0.4805 → 0.4507 (now). That sequence shows progressive deterioration and acceleration lower in the last 2–3 sessions.
• Intraday (hourly, latest session):
  • Early session uptick to 0.486–0.490 around 13:00Z on elevated volume (3.5M) failed quickly.
  • Sharp sell wave 17:00–19:00 took price from ~0.478 to a session low ~0.4416 on heavy volume (4.48M then 3.79M), i.e., a volume climax on the down leg; the bounce since then is tepid, closing ~0.4506–0.4507.
  • Structure looks like a developing bear flag: impulsive drop (0.486 → 0.442), then a weak upward/sideways drift under resistance.

Key levels (near-term)

• Supports: 0.444/0.442 (today’s low zone), 0.438 (projected micro support), 0.432/0.430 (measured move/round), 0.424–0.422 (extension risk if momentum accelerates).
• Resistances: 0.454–0.456 (23.6% Fib), 0.460–0.466 (38.2%–50% Fib cluster), 0.471–0.472 (61.8% Fib + intraday supply), 0.479–0.486 (prior hourly swing highs; supply shelf).

Fibonacci mapping (last impulsive swing)

• Swing: 0.4898 high (14:00Z) to 0.4416 low (19:00Z), Δ ≈ 0.0482.
  • 23.6%: ~0.4530 (near current price)
  • 38.2%: ~0.4600 (first decent sell zone)
  • 50%: ~0.4657 (confluence with intraday supply)
  • 61.8%: ~0.4714 (upper sell band)
  • 78.6%: ~0.4795 (guarded by earlier highs 0.483–0.490)
• These retracement levels align with intraday rejection wicks and volume shelves, reinforcing 0.460–0.472 as a high-probability fade zone.

Moving averages (trend filters)

• Daily 20/50 SMAs (approx): both sloping down, with price well below the 20D—bearish regime. The gap between price and 20D expanded in the last week, showing increasing trend strength.
• Hourly EMAs: Price sits below the 20/50/200-EMA stack, with each average pointed down; intraday rallies into the 20/50 EMA bands have been sold. Expect dynamic resistance ~0.462–0.472 as EMAs catch down to price.

Momentum

• RSI (daily): Likely in the low-30s with recent closes; persistent bear range behavior (RSI failing to reclaim 50) signals trend continuation rather than a durable bottom. Oversold can persist in downtrends.
• RSI (hourly): Rebounded from deeply oversold on the 0.4416 print to roughly neutral-low (est. mid-30s/low-40s), consistent with a weak bear-flag bounce.
• MACD (daily): Below zero with widening histogram earlier in week; trend momentum remains negative.
• MACD (hourly): Bearish below zero; any short-lived bullish cross intraday faded quickly as the sell impulse resumed; histogram uptick post-climax is corrective, not impulsive.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily (est.): elevated and expanding vs prior weeks—recent daily ranges 0.03–0.06+. Expect ~0.04–0.06 24h movement around current price, implying a plausible band of ~0.428–0.472.
• Bollinger Bands (daily): Price traveling near/through the lower band with bands widening—trend, not squeeze. Mean reversion rallies typically die at/under the mid-band during downtrends; mid-band sits well above price.
• Bollinger (hourly): After the dump, a partial reversion toward the mid-band is likely capped by the upper band near the 0.468–0.472 region.

Volume, OBV, and VWAP

• Volume distribution: Down candles carry larger volume than up candles (e.g., 17:00–19:00Z heavy on selloff), indicating supply dominance.
• OBV (conceptual): Rolling lower through Nov–Dec; no accumulation footprints visible today.
• Session VWAP (today, approx): Skewed by the 13:00Z 0.486 print and the subsequent heavy selling volume; blended estimate lands around 0.462–0.465. Expect VWAP to act as magnet/resistance on a bounce; fading tests of VWAP in bear regimes is high-probability.

Ichimoku (hourly)

• Price below cloud; cloud sloping down, with Kijun likely around the 0.463–0.467 zone and Tenkan underneath current price after the dump. First tests of the Kijun/Cloud edge typically reject in a persistent downtrend.

Pattern diagnostics

• Bear flag: Impulsive down leg (0.486→0.442), followed by a shallow countertrend bounce; channel top aligns with Fib 50–61.8% and VWAP—good risk-reward for shorts.
• No confirmed bullish divergence on price vs momentum at the 0.4416 low. The bounce lacks thrust and breadth.

Measured moves and extensions

• If the bear flag breaks lower, a conservative measured move equal to half the prior impulse (≈0.024) from ~0.460 projects to ~0.436; full impulse (≈0.048) projects to ~0.412. For the next 24h, the half-measure is more realistic (0.432–0.436 zone).

Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (50%): Fade into 0.462–0.468, reject, then bleed toward 0.444; break exposes 0.436–0.432. Close near lower third of day’s range.
• Alternative (30%): Sideways chop 0.448–0.466, multiple VWAP taps, no decisive breakdown; still a net drift down.
• Squeeze (20%): Stronger bounce through 0.472 to tag 0.479–0.486 supply; would reassess but still a sell-the-rip zone unless 0.489–0.491 is reclaimed on volume.

Confluence checklist for short

• Trend: Down on daily and hourly.
• Price below declining EMAs and below VWAP.
• Fib confluence: 38.2–61.8% retracements = 0.460–0.471.
• Volume: Selling pressure heavier on declines; bounce volume lighter.
• Momentum: RSI/MACD bear regime.
• Pattern: Bear flag beneath prior supply.
• Volatility: ATR expanded; rallies failing quickly.

Risk management and trade plan

• Entry: Staggered short entries 0.462–0.468 (primary) with alert at 0.471 (last add). For single-entry precision: 0.4625.
• Invalidation: Above 0.476 (first) and hard stop above 0.481 (reclaim of 78.6% + prior distribution highs). Above 0.489, thesis invalid.
• Targets: TP1 0.436, TP2 0.432, stretch 0.424 if momentum accelerates. Expect partials at 0.444 if price hesitates.
• Risk-reward: From 0.4625 short, to 0.432 target = ~0.0305 reward vs ~0.014–0.019 risk (stops 0.476–0.481) ≈ 1.6–2.2R; acceptable in a high-probability trend continuation setup.

Contingencies

• If price fails to bounce to 0.462 and instead breaks 0.444 first, avoid chasing the first break; wait for the breakdown–retest of 0.444/0.448 and then sell the retest.
• If price rips through 0.472 quickly on strong volume, wait for 0.479–0.486 to form rejection before re-attempting a short.

Bottom line

• The weight of evidence—trend, momentum, volume distribution, Fib/VWAP confluence, and pattern structure—supports fading bounces. Expect a pop into 0.462–0.468 to stall and a subsequent drive toward 0.436–0.432 within 24 hours.