Step-by-Step Toncoin (TON) Price Analysis (as of 2025-05-19)

I. Overview of Recent Price Action

• Current Price: $3.0158
• Recent Intraday Lows: $2.89 (14h ago on 2025-05-19), $2.99 (10-12h ago)
• Recent Highs: $3.20 (2 days ago), $3.29 (May 8-10)
• Recent Days Range: $2.89 - $3.19
• Trend over Previous 2 Weeks: Correction from $3.50+ zone to $2.90, now ranging around $3.00

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II. Trend Analysis

A. Long-Term Trend (3 Months)

• Peaked at $4.15 (Mar 31). Since then: Lower highs and lows.
• Primary Structure: Downtrend from peak, but a possible basing process around $2.90–$3.20.

B. Medium-Term Trend (1 Month)

• Major Resistance: $3.27 (end of April), then $3.20–$3.29 (early May).
• Major Support: $2.90 (multiple tests), below which a flush toward $2.75 is likely.
• Recent days: Several attempts to break below $2.99 but buyers stepped in, printing higher intraday lows each test (bullish divergence).

C. Short-Term (Weekly/Daily)

• Last 24–48h: Rejection of sub-$3.00 zone, followed by a moderate bounce to $3.13, then consolidating around $3.01.
• Today: Tight range, lower volume, lack of impulsive selling—suggests sellers are losing momentum.

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III. Volume/Order Flow Analysis

• Massive Volume in Drops: Each sharp drop (to sub-$3) draws large volume spikes, indicating buyers absorbing liquidity.
• Recent Ranges: Lower volume, tight spreads — this often happens before a volatility expansion.

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IV. Technical Tools and Indicators

1. Simple Moving Averages (MA)

• 50-day MA: Around $3.10–$3.15
• 20-day MA: Slope is flat-to-slightly-lower, around $3.09
• Price Position: Current price is at/below short-term MAs—implies neutral/bearish but flattening.

2. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

• Daily RSI Estimate: ~41 (below 50, but not oversold)
• Intraday RSI: Between 38–45 last 12h, indicating weakening sell pressure and possibly forming a base.

3. MACD

• MACD Line: Under signal line, but histogram shows decreasing negative momentum—indicative of a reversal setup.

4. Bollinger Bands

• Current price is hugging the lower band, but bands are slightly narrowing, i.e., volatility is compressing.
• Narrowing after significant decline sets up for a volatility expansion—a breakout or breakdown.
• Mean reversion likely toward $3.07–$3.10 zone.

5. Fibonacci Retracement (from Mar-Apr highs $4.15 to May lows $2.90)

• Key Retracement Levels:
  • 38.2%: $3.41
  • 50%: $3.52
  • 61.8%: $3.63
• Current price: Well below all retracement levels — unless $2.90 breaks, risk/reward for a bounce improves.

6. Support/Resistance

• Immediate Support: $2.89–$2.91
• Immediate Resistance: $3.07–$3.13, then $3.20-$3.28
• Break above $3.13: Could trigger short covering to $3.20+.
• Break below $2.89: Opens to $2.75–$2.65 zone (previous congestion).

7. Price Structure/Patterns

• Descending Broad Channel: Persistent lower highs/lows; within past week, higher lows forming (potential reversal wedge).
• Double/Triple Bottom Setup: Tests of $2.90 area (May 7, 12, 19) bring in buyers; bullish divergence on RSI each test.
• Bear Trap Likely: Market squeezed out weak hands below $3.00, but failure to follow through ( no heavy selling after flush) sets up for retracement higher.

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V. Sentiment, Context and Catalysts

• No panic in flows recently.
• If short sellers overwhelmed at $2.90 but price fails to break lower, upward reversal risk increases.
• Low volatility and waning sell volumes favor a relief bounce.

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VI. Synthesis: What Does it Mean?

• The series of higher lows since $2.90, bullish divergence in RSI, and compression near support with diminishing volume strongly suggest the market is trying to form a bottom.
• Imminent move likely, with upside probability outpacing downside due to the exhaustion of sellers, presence of liquidity below $3 quickly bought up, and historical behavior of TON in such compressed zones.
• Targets for a relief rally: $3.07 first, then $3.14–$3.19.
• Downside risk: If $2.89 is lost, rapid drop to $2.75 zone likely. Stops should be tight under recent lows.

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VII. Strategy Conclusion & Optimal Orders

Trading Play:

• Given risk/reward, current technical exhaustion, and support zone defense, a tactical long position (Buy) is the best strategy.
• Optimal Entry: At/below $3.02 for maximum risk/reward (ideally between $3.01–$3.03); current market is perfect for limit buy at $3.01.
• First Target: $3.13–$3.15 (upper edge of recent range, near 20d/50d MAs).
• Stretch Target: $3.19–$3.20 (if squeeze accelerates).
• Downside Stop: Under $2.89 (loose), but $2.95 (tight).

Recommendations

• Open Buy at $3.01
• Take Profit at $3.13 (could trail further if momentum builds)
• Stop Loss at/under $2.95

Risk/Reward Rationale

• Upside to $3.13: +4%
• Downside (tight stop at $2.95): -2%
• Risk/Reward Ratio: ~2:1—very favorable at support boundary with technical exhaustion and reversal signals.

Conclusion: The stronger probability is for an upside move in the next 12–24 hours as the market resolves its compression. A tactical buy near current levels provides optimal risk-adjusted return given confluence of technical factors.