TON’s 61.8% Roadblock: Buy the Dip at 2.07 for a Sprint to 2.22

Toncoin (TON) – multi-timeframe, multi-tool read-through and 24h trading plan

Data read and market context

• Current price: 2.1110
• Today’s daily (so far): O 1.9578, H 2.1182, L 1.9232, C 2.1110; strong green day off a higher low vs Nov 4.
• Hourly sequence (Nov 6 22:00 → Nov 7 22:12): impulsive advance from ~1.95 to ~2.12, then tight consolidation around 2.09–2.11. Volume peaked on the push (16:00–18:00), tapered during consolidation.
• Bigger picture: downtrend from Aug highs (~3.55) → Sept breakdown → Oct 10 flash-crash wick to 0.675 (anomalous), subsequent lower-highs/lows into early Nov (1.80–1.90 base forming). Today looks like a corrective rebound within a broader daily downtrend.

Market structure and S/R mapping

• Daily structure: Lower highs since Aug, lower lows into Nov 4 (1.799). Today’s rally is a counter-trend bounce unless we reclaim 2.20–2.24.
• Key resistance layers ahead: • 2.12–2.13: 61.8% retrace of the 2.315–1.799 downswing; today’s high tagged this cluster (confluence zone). • 2.15–2.17: Oct 18–24 distribution zone and daily pivot R2 (calc from Nov 4) ~2.15. • 2.20–2.24: 78.6% retrace (~2.22), Kijun (est.), and repeated Oct swing inflections. • 2.28–2.31: Nov 1–2 highs/structure.
• Supports below: • 2.07–2.08: 50% retrace of 2.315–1.799 (~2.067), intraday breakout base (16:00), volume node. • 2.02–2.03: prior R1 from pivots (~2.027), minor H1 demand and H1 20EMA pullback area. • 1.90–1.93: daily base (Nov 4–7 lows) and psychological shelf.

Moving average stack (approximations from series)

• Daily: 20SMA ~2.20–2.25; price 2.11 below the 20SMA (rallies face MA-resistance). 50SMA ~2.7–2.9; 200SMA higher; bear-aligned long-term.
• Hourly: 8/21EMAs bullishly crossed; price holding above 21EMA (~2.05–2.07) and 50EMA (~2.01–2.03). This supports buy-the-dip toward 2.06–2.07.

Momentum

• RSI • Daily RSI rebounding from mid-30s/low-40s to high-40s; still sub-50 trendline, but improving. • Hourly RSI ~60–65 on the thrust; during 19:00–22:00 consolidation, mild bearish divergence vs the 18:00 spike (RSI cooled while price held near highs) – typically a shallow pullback rather than a full reversal when trend and MA structure stay intact.
• MACD • Daily MACD negative but histogram contracting toward zero; early bullish cross possible in coming sessions if price holds above 2.05 and reclaims 2.15–2.20. • Hourly MACD positive; histogram plateauing after the surge, consistent with flag consolidation.

Volatility/bands

• Bollinger Bands • Daily: price still below the 20SMA mid-band, suggesting the mean sits ~2.20+. Rallies toward 2.20–2.24 likely meet supply on first test. • Hourly: price tagged upper band on the impulse, then moved into a narrowing range; a controlled mean-reversion toward the 20MA (~2.05–2.07) is textbook before next leg.
• Keltner/ATR • Daily ATR(14) approx 0.18–0.22. From a 2.07 dip, a +0.14 to +0.18 extension targets 2.21–2.25 in 24h if momentum persists.

Ichimoku (inferred)

• Daily: price below cloud; Tenkan likely below Kijun or curling up; Kijun near ~2.20–2.22. Chikou still below price action. Net: dominant daily bear cloud, with a rebound toward Kijun resistance plausible.
• Hourly: price above cloud; Tenkan > Kijun; Senkou A > B with a forward bullish tilt. As long as price holds above Kijun/Span A (~2.05–2.07), the short-term uptrend is intact.

Fibonacci confluence (primary lens for next 24h)

• Swing: Oct 28/Nov 2 highs (~2.315/2.335) to Nov 4 low (1.799). • 38.2%: ~2.003–2.01 (tested on the way up). • 50%: ~2.067 (current ideal dip-buy zone). • 61.8%: ~2.118–2.132 (today’s cap; first test rejection is typical). • 78.6%: ~2.22 (next upside magnet IF 61.8% breaks on volume).

Volume, OBV, VWAP

• Intraday volume crescendo (16:00–18:00) on the breakout; taper during consolidation = healthy.
• OBV on H1 advancing; no distribution signature during consolidation.
• Anchored VWAP (session from 00:00/DAILY open ~1.958): est. ~2.03–2.05; price above AVWAP suggests buyers in control; pullbacks toward VWAP often get defended in a fresh impulse.

Price patterns

• H1: Impulsive leg (approx 2.012 → 2.119) followed by a tight, slightly descending/flat consolidation between 2.088–2.111 – a classic bull flag/pennant. Equal/near-equal highs near 2.11–2.12 imply liquidity resting above; a sweep above 2.118–2.132 can attract continuation toward 2.15–2.17 first, then 2.20–2.22.
• Daily candle today: strong green body off a higher low, potentially engulfing the last two sessions’ bodies; indicative of demand returning. Still, it is a counter-trend day until 2.20–2.24 is reclaimed.

Pivots (Classic, using Nov 4)

• P ≈ 1.913; R1 ≈ 2.027; R2 ≈ 2.150; R3 ≈ 2.263; S1 ≈ 1.788.
• Price has recaptured R1 (bullish), paused below R2 (2.15). That aligns with the fib 61.8% stall and sets 2.15 as next decision gate.

Elliott wave (tactical, intraday)

• From the 12:00 low (~1.923) a 5-wave micro-impulse likely printed into the 18:00 high (~2.119): • Wave 1: ~1.958 → 1.981; Wave 2: ~1.971 pullback; Wave 3: extended to 2.119; Wave 4: flat consolidation 2.088–2.11; Wave 5 projection: 2.15–2.17 (measured move ~0.382–0.618 of wave 1–3).
• After wave 5, expect an ABC back into 2.07–2.10 before any larger breakout. If the current 19:00–22:00 pause is wave 4, 24h window likely includes that wave 5 tag into 2.15 and potentially a later push to 2.20–2.22 if buyers keep control.

Risk diagnostics and scenario probabilities (24h)

• Base case (55%): Minor dip first into 2.07–2.09 (50% fib / H1 21EMA / session AVWAP band), then breakout above 2.12–2.13 toward 2.15–2.17; if momentum holds, extension to 2.20–2.22 (78.6% fib) by the end of the window.
• Bear/delay case (25%): Deeper mean reversion into 2.03–2.05 (H1 50EMA / R1 retest), then base and range 2.03–2.11 without a clean breakout.
• Reversal risk (20%): Loss of 2.03 leads to retest of 1.93–1.95; this would invalidate the immediate bullish read and reassert the daily downtrend. Current orderflow does not favor this, but it remains a non-trivial risk given the higher-timeframe trend.

Synthesis across tools

• Short-term (H1) trend, MA ribbon, Ichimoku, OBV, and flag structure favor continuation higher after a shallow dip.
• Key overhead confluence at 2.12–2.13 caused the stall; once absorbed, 2.15–2.17 and 2.20–2.22 open quickly.
• Daily is still counter-trend; hence tactics should emphasize pullback entries or confirmed breakouts and take profit into 2.20–2.22 on first test.

Execution plan (24h)

• Strategy: Buy-the-dip within the H1 uptrend into the 50% retracement cluster (2.06–2.08), aiming to ride the next leg through 2.12–2.13 toward 2.20–2.22.
• Optimal entry: 2.074 (limit), aligning with 50% fib (~2.067), H1 21EMA/VWAP zone, and breakout base (16:00 hour). High-probability liquidity tap area.
• Profit objective: 2.215 (first touch of the 78.6% fib and daily Kijun/resistance shelf). Expect initial supply; take profit into that band on the first arrival.
• Contingency if no dip: A secondary method would be a breakout buy stop through 2.132 with a quick momentum target 2.165–2.175, but the primary recommendation remains the pullback fill at 2.074 for better risk-adjusted expectancy.

Risk control (not part of the requested fields but essential to the plan)

• Suggested protective stop: below 2.032 (beneath H1 50EMA / pivot R1 and local structure). That yields an approximate R:R of ~3.5:1 to the 2.215 target from 2.074.

Bottom line outlook for the next 24 hours

• Expect an orderly pullback toward 2.07–2.08, then an attempt to break and hold above 2.12–2.13. Upside magnets: 2.15–2.17 and 2.20–2.22. A daily close above ~2.20 would materially improve the swing outlook into next week; failure to hold 2.03 would postpone the bullish scenario and re-expose 1.93.