TRUMP breaks higher on hourly trend: buy the 8.00 dip for a run at 8.60

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish with a buy‑the‑dip preference. Looking for a shallow pullback toward 8.00–8.05, then an attempt to break 8.27–8.36 and probe 8.55–8.65. Risk if 7.85 gives way.
• Optimal plan: Limit buy near 8.04 (prior intraday value area and just below round‑number support), target 8.62 (below the daily swing‑high supply band). Contingent breakout trigger (secondary): add on confirmed 1H close >8.36 if pullback does not fill.

Data quality and framing

• Instrument: OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP), quoted in USD. Current price: 8.0876 at 2025‑11‑06T08:31Z.
• Timeframes used: Daily OHLCV from 2025‑08‑09 to 2025‑11‑04; intraday hourly stream 2025‑11‑05 to 2025‑11‑06 bridging the missing 2025‑11‑05 daily bar.
• Notable structural events: 2025‑10‑10 capitulation spike (low ~2.77, close ~5.41, record volume), subsequent base 5.7–6.3, impulsive markup 2025‑10‑27 to 2025‑10‑29 (close up to 8.25), pullback to 6.97 (2025‑11‑04), and fresh 36‑hour rally to ~8.27–8.36 intraday 2025‑11‑06.

Multiple timeframe market structure

• Daily trend: Neutral‑to‑recovering. Price reclaimed the October breakdown zone and is now oscillating below the prior daily resistance shelf 8.60–8.65. The higher low at 6.97 on 2025‑11‑04 versus the October base (5.75–6.00) establishes a constructive staircase pattern.
• 1H trend (most actionable next 24h): Bullish short‑term structure with higher highs/lows from ~7.00 (Nov 5 08:00Z) to a local high 8.364 (Nov 6 03:00Z), consolidating 8.09–8.27. Pullbacks have been shallow and bought quickly.

Key levels (confluence of S/R, volume, wicks)

• Resistance: 8.27–8.36 (hourly swing highs; 8.3637 high at 03:00Z), 8.60–8.65 (daily supply; Oct 30 high 8.6386), then 8.88–9.01 (round number + Sept range highs) if momentum accelerates.
• Support: 8.00–8.05 (intraday demand from 00:00–07:00Z; VWAP pocket), 7.85–7.90 (hourly shelf and prior R3 pivot reaction), 7.50–7.60 (volume node and prior distribution ledge), 6.97 (daily swing low and 50% retracement reference).

Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily MAs (estimates from series):
  • 20D EMA ~7.3–7.6 and rising post‑rally; price at 8.09 is above the 20D, supportive of near‑term upside continuation.
  • 50D SMA ~8.2–8.4 (skewed higher by August/September 9+ prints); price is marginally below/near it—explains current stall near 8.3.
• 1H MAs: 50>200 SMA crossover (golden cross) occurred during Nov 5 US session; price holding above both with 50‑SMA acting as dynamic support on dips—bullish into the next sessions.

Momentum and oscillators

• RSI
  • Daily RSI has recovered from sub‑40 post‑pullback to the low‑mid 50s; still room to 60–65 before traditional overbought—constructive.
  • 1H RSI oscillates 55–65 during the up‑leg, peaking near 67 at 03:00Z and mean‑reverting toward 50–55 by 08:00Z; this favors a shallow dip buy rather than chasing.
• MACD
  • Daily MACD histogram turned up from negative and the signal lines are curling toward a bull cross near the zero line—typical of a new upswing developing after a corrective low.
  • 1H MACD remains positive; histogram contracted in the last few hours as price digested gains—healthy consolidation vs. reversal.

Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (1H): Bands expanded on the thrust to 8.36, then compressed as price hovered near the mid‑band; a fresh expansion is likely on a break of 8.27–8.36. Squeeze‑and‑release setup favors another impulse within 12–24h if support holds.
• Daily ATR expanded materially since late October; current daily ATR is roughly 0.6–0.8. Expect a 24h realized range of ~±0.45 to ±0.60 from the mean, implying 7.55–8.65 is a plausible band without regime change.

Volume, flow, and positioning

• OBV (qualitative): Net advance since the Oct 27–29 markup remains intact despite the Nov 1–4 pullback; the last 36h show OBV upticks on pushes, with lighter volumes on dips—bullish accumulation signature.
• Volume profile: High‑volume nodes (HVNs) cluster 7.5–7.9 (acceptance) and a lighter pocket 8.25–8.40 (LVN). Price tends to traverse LVNs quickly—once 8.36 is breached, a swift tag of 8.55–8.65 is probable before new inventory builds.

VWAPs and anchored VWAPs

• Session VWAP (intraday) has been reclaimed and used as support through Nov 5–6, indicating buyers control the tape.
• Anchored VWAP from the 10/10 capitulation low (~5.40) projects near ~7.1–7.3: price is well above—bullish regime. Anchored from the 10/27 breakout (~6.28) sits ~7.7–7.9; price is holding above, consistent with strong hands in control.

Fibonacci and harmonic structure

• Swing reference: Oct 10 low 5.40 to Oct 30 high 8.64 = 3.24 range.
  • 38.2% retrace: 7.40; 50% retrace: 7.02; 61.8% retrace: 6.64. The Nov 4 low at 6.97 tagged the 50% zone and reversed—textbook corrective completion.
• Current impulse leg (6.97 → 8.36): A standard ABC/123 progression suggests a wave‑2 pullback toward 23.6–38.2% of that leg (7.99–7.77) before a wave‑3 extension toward 1.0–1.272 projections (8.65–8.95). Our plan targets the conservative end (8.62) just under supply.

Ichimoku (signal confirmation)

• 1H: Price above a rising Kumo with Tenkan > Kijun; minor mean reversion into Kijun (around ~8.00–8.05) is common before continuation. Chikou span clear of price—bullish continuation bias.
• Daily: Price challenging the cloud underside / 50‑SMA cluster near 8.3; clears path toward 8.6 if reclaimed.

DeMark/Sequential (intraday)

• 1H count advanced through 7–8 during the push to 8.36 and has since cooled; this typically precedes a brief dip/reset (1–3 bars) and then another attempt higher. That supports a buy‑the‑dip vs. chase approach in the next few hours.

Pivot points (classic, using 11/04 bar as proxy due to missing 11/05 daily)

• P ≈ 7.143; R1 ≈ 7.33; R2 ≈ 7.69; R3 ≈ 7.88. Price has migrated and sustained above R3 for several sessions—an extended but strong state; consolidation above 8.00 keeps the extension thesis alive toward the next higher timeframe resistance at 8.60+.

Candles and tape tells

• Hourly candles show long lower wicks near 8.08–8.10 in the last session, signaling dip absorption. The 03:00Z rejection at 8.36 did not produce follow‑through selling—sellers are not aggressive at market, indicative of supply thinning below 8.36.

Wyckoff lens

• The structure since 6.97 resembles accumulation with a Sign of Strength (SOS) through ~8.00, followed by a Last Point of Support (LPS) near 8.00–8.05. If the next upthrust through 8.36 holds, the markup phase toward 8.60–8.65 is the path of least resistance.

Liquidity and stop‑maps (hypothetical)

• Liquidity likely rests above 8.36 (recent local highs) and above 8.64 (Oct 30 swing). A stop‑run through 8.36 can catalyze a quick 20–30c extension into 8.55–8.65. Below, liquidity pockets sit under 8.00 and then 7.85; a sweep into 7.95–7.98 that quickly recovers would be a classic high‑odds entry.

Scenario map for next 24 hours

• Base case (≈60%): Dip to 8.00–8.05, hold above 7.95, then breakout through 8.27–8.36 and extend to 8.55–8.65 where supply re‑emerges.
• Range case (≈30%): Oscillate 7.95–8.30 as market builds inventory; upside attempt delayed to the following session.
• Bear case (≈10%): Failure through 7.85 triggers a rotation to 7.60–7.50 HVN before buyers attempt again.

Risk management and execution notes

• Entry: Prefer limit buy 8.04 to align with intraday Kijun/VWAP pocket and the 8.00 round‑number shelf. If not filled and price closes an hourly bar >8.36 with rising volume, consider breakout adds (not part of the single‑price output here).
• Invalidation for the idea: Hourly close <7.85 or loss of 7.80 with rising sell volume (would point to a deeper rotation to 7.60–7.50). A discretionary stop could sit 7.78–7.82 if you implement risk controls.
• Take‑profit: 8.62 just beneath the 8.64 daily supply cap to improve fill probability.

Synthesis and conclusion

• Confluences bullish: 1H uptrend, 50% daily fib reaction, price above anchored VWAPs, constructive RSI/MACD, LVN overhead that can be traversed quickly if 8.36 breaks, and supportive dip‑buy behavior around 8.00. Headwinds: daily 50‑SMA/overhead supply 8.3–8.6 cluster.
• Net: Favor Buy (Long) with a tactical dip entry near 8.04 and a 24h target near 8.62. Expect brief consolidation or shallow retrace first, then an attempt to resolve higher. As always, size appropriately; this asset’s ATR implies swift moves in both directions.